Eliminating Electricity Imports at Same Time Would Double Job Gains

Mix of new temporary construction and permanent jobs would peak at 5,700 under basic scenario, but reach 12,600 jobs if investments also aim to keep utility spending in the state – a number nearly equal to employment in Virginia’s commercial construction sector.

[Richmond, VA, and Washington, D.C.] – A new report analyzing scenarios for Virginia’s compliance with the U.S. EPA’s Clean Power Plan to reduce carbon emissions from the electric power sector shows that the Commonwealth could create thousands of permanent and temporary jobs by making investments to diversify its power sources with renewable energy, energy efficiency, and natural gas generating plants – and more than double the new jobs if the state pursued a long-sought goal of eliminating electricity imports from out of state.

The new report, Assessing Virginia’s Energy Future: Employment Impacts of Clean Power Plan Compliance Scenarios, was prepared by Meister Consultants Group for the Advanced Energy Economy Institute and the Virginia Advanced Energy Industries Coalition. The full report is available for download at http://info.aee.net/virginia-energy-future.

“This analysis shows the job creating value of putting advanced energy technologies to work in Virginia under the Clean Power Plan,” said Graham Richard, CEO of Advanced Energy Economy, a national business group, and the AEE Institute, its nonprofit educational affiliate. “Deploying these technologies in Virginia to also reduce imports creates even more jobs while keeping precious energy dollars in state supporting economic growth. This report should be a road map for Virginia’s energy future.” 

“We have an opportunity to significantly increase employment in Virginia while achieving a lower risk energy portfolio, greater grid resiliency, and satisfying the significant and growing demand for clean, advanced energy,” said Francis Hodsoll, Board President of Virginia Advanced Energy Industries Coalition, a business group representing a range of energy technologies.“Given these findings, political and business leaders in Virginia should demand that Virginia develop a prudent pro-growthimplementation strategy.”  

Under EPA’s draft Clean Power Plan, which is expected to become final this summer, Virginia would be required to reduce its carbon emissions rate from electricity generation from 1,438 pounds per megawatt-hour (lb/MWh) to 810 lb/MWh by 2030. EPA set that target based on the agency’s calculation of the state’s ability to take measures such as increasing the efficiency of existing coal-fired power plants, shifting generation to natural gas-fired plants with unused capacity, developing more renewable energy capacity (along with maintaining nuclear capacity), and increasing the efficiency of energy use.

In Assessing Virginia’s Energy Future, Meister Consultants Group analyzed two of the many scenarios under which Virginia could meet EPA’s 2030 emissions rate target, and found that both would result in significant employment gains for the state compared with a “business as usual” scenario. As net new jobs created between now and 2030 would be a mix of temporary construction jobs and permanent positions, the report follows the convention used by economists to express employment gains in “job-years,” with one job in existence for one year equal to one job-year.  Thus, a construction job that lasts for two years on a particular project would count as two job-years, while a permanent job created in 2021 and still in place in 2030 would count as nine job-years.

The Diversified Portfolio option, that achieves compliance by implementing changes already planned by utilities, most of the building block measures contemplated by EPA, some renewable energy, and greater energy efficiency, will result in more than 54,000 additional job-years by 2030. Net new jobs would peak in 2029, at 5,715 – a number approaching current employment in beverage and tobacco production in Virginia (6,800).

Job gains would more than double if the state chose to accomplish a frequently stated goal of keeping utility spending in the Virginia economy by eliminating electricity imports at the same time as it complied with the Clean Power Plan. Currently, Virginia gets a little less than 40 percent of its electricity from out of state. The state could reduce electricity imports to zero by 2030, as well as surpass EPA’s emissions target, with more renewable energy, energy efficiency, and natural gas resources.

Under the Import Reduction scenario, employment would get a boost of more than 120,000 job-years by 2030. Net new jobs under this scenario would peak in 2027, at 12,631 – nearly equal to existing jobs in commercial construction (14,000).

Job gains under both scenarios would be in addition to 7,964 job-years expected as a result of changes already planned by the state’s utilities (see Figure 1 attached). These include plans to retire or convert a substantial amount of coal-fired generation, implement some renewable energy and energy efficiency investments, and construct several high-efficiency natural gas combined cycle power plants. These changes reflect the changing economics of the electric power sector, and will also reduce Virginia’s emissions rate, helping the state reach its target under the CPP.

“After considering different compliance strategies, this report found that implementing the Clean Power Plan can lead to substantial direct job creation in Virginia,” said Wilson Rickerson, CEO of Meister Consultants Group, Inc., an independent international research firm. “These employment benefits will be greatly increased if the state adopts a compliance plan that aims to increase the state’s electricity independence.”

“Working with nearly 100 utilities across the nation and around the world, we have helped meet efficiency goals and lower costs to serve, while improving customer satisfaction,” said Richard Caperton, Director of National Policy & Partnerships atOpower, based in Arlington, Va. (NYSE: OPWR). “This report shows that innovative technology can help drive significant energy savings and create thousands of jobs for the state of Virginia.”

Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Thursday, April 9. Also, check out Rand Paul’s meltdown/mansplaining (“no no no no no no…”) about his many, many flip flops, inconsistencies, etc, etc.

*“No no no no no no no no: Listen!” He-man Rand Paul lectures a lady – again

*Boston bomber may be sentenced to death penalty

*On first official day on the trail, Rand Paul turns in a prickly performance (Other than his crazy conspiracy theorizing and far-right-wing, non-“libertarian” views, Rand Paul’s temperament is complely unsuited to being president.)

*Jefferson Davis’s party (“Today’s GOP is no longer the party of Lincoln.” It hasn’t been the party of Lincoln for a long time. It’s also John Birch’s party nowadays…)

*To Rand Paul, Abortion Access For Rape Victims Isn’t Worth Talking About

*Why This New Study On Arctic Permafrost Is So Scary (We need to accelerate the transition from carbon-based fuels, dramatically and immediately.)

*Rand Paul, Paul Rand Quiz

*What Tom Cotton’s warmongering reveals: It’s still Dick Cheney’s GOP

*Right-Wing Media Freak Out, Claim Obama’s Easter Speech Maligned Christians (The phrase “Right-Wing Media Freak Out About Obama” is the classic sign that they are suffering from severe, possibly terminal, Obama Derangement Syndrome.)

*Jim Webb critiques Clinton-era foreign policy (The charge that we “have not had a clear strategic doctrine since the end of the Cold War” is kind of simplistic and silly; what’s Webb’s brilliant “strategic doctrine” exactly?)

*Pardon case goes to Va. Gov. McAuliffe as attorney general Herring withholds judgment

*Editorial: Herring has things backwards – again (This is a perfect example of why I call the RTD editorial board the “Republican Times-Disgrace”)

*Big spenders pour $530,000 into McAuliffe PAC over four months (A good start!)

*Norment: Feds say blackmailer allegations groundless

*Mark Earley, former Virginia attorney general, now opposes death penalty

*Morrissey lawsuit seeks to stop printing of primary ballots

*Rigell fields questions on guns, gays, grass and debt (So who do the Dems have to run against this guy in 2016?!?)

*A sad vote for Hampton Roads

*New River Valley candidates are lining up for November elections

*D.C. area forecast: Damp and cool today flips to warm and stormy Friday, weekend is blissful

Over the years, I’ve mocked the strongly right-leaning Richmond Times-Dispatch as the “Republican Times-Disgrace.” But one person I’ve generally enjoyed reading and learned a great deal from, whether I agreed with him or not, has been Virginia political guru Jeff Schapiro. I’ve often highlighted his work on this blog, on Twitter, etc. But not this morning, and not this column (“Schapiro: Herring’s as subtle as a punch in the nose”). As I wrote in the morning news clips, “This is the epitome of “false equivalence” and other flawed reasoning. Definitely the worst column I’ve ever read by Jeff Schapiro – by far!” Let me explain a bit further.

First off, let’s just get out of the way a paragraph that simply makes no sense whatsoever.

History may not be on Northam’s side. Of the past eight lieutenant governors, seven sought the governorship. Five were nominated and four won. Over the same period, eight attorneys general declared for governor and were nominated. Three were elected.

Some quick math: 4/8 LGs (50%) ran for governor and were elected; 3/8 AGs (38%) ran for governor and were elected. So why might history “not be on Northam’s side?” It’s not as if Democratic LGs have been in the habit of running against Democratic AGs for the gubernatorial nomination, either (when was the last time?). What am I missing here?

Second, the following paragraph is just…gack.

In backing Obama on immigration, Herring is again bowing to the new Virginians – Asians and Hispanics. Their presence here is booming. Asians account for 7 percent of the state’s 8.3 million residents; Hispanics, for 8 percent. However, this has not translated to huge numbers on the voter rolls

So let’s get this straight. If Mark Herring believes, as the vast majority of Democrats do, that President Obama’s executive order on immigration was a positive thing, as well as constitutional (note: more broadly, polls are all over the place, with the public divided and answering differently depending on how the question is framed), then he’s “as subtle as a punch in the nose?” I guess that means the vast majority of Democrats are “as subtle as a punch in the nose” for supporting Obama’s executive order on immigration, while Republicans are just “as subtle as a punch in the nose” for opposing Obama on this (and everything else he does). Or something. Who knows.

As if that’s not bad enough, Schapiro’s language here (“bowing?”) is simply unfortunate. And his math, not to mention political logic, are strange: Asians and Hispanics account for a combined 15% of Virginia’s population, yet somehow tha’ts supposed to translate into “huge numbers on the voter roles?” I mean, is 15% a “huge number?” Maybe, maybe not. But you can’t argue on the one hand that Mark Herring is pandering politically to Asians and Latinos, while simultaneously claiming that they don’t make up “huge numbers on the voter roles.” It’s simply illogical. Meanwhile, as this article explains, “Virginia is the final state currently shifting Democratic-a change that is being propelled in part by the state’s growing Latino community.” Also: “By 2016 we can expect the Virginia electorate to see more than 127,700 new eligible Latino voters.” Now, Jeff Schapiro might not believe those numbers are “huge,” but given that President Obama won Virginia in 2012 by about 150,000 votes, it seems to me that 127,700 votes is kind of crucial…

Then there’s Schapiro’s mention of marriage equality, which is on rock-solid constitutional footing, as the U.S. Supreme Court will almost certainly conclude in coming months. As for Mark Herring not defending Virginia’s anti-LGBT marriage amendment in court, that was 100% in line with Herring’s oath of office, which “includes a solemn vows first to ‘support the constitution of the United States’ and second to support ‘the constitution of the Commonwealth of Virginia.'” Furthermore, “Article VI, Clause 2 of the United States Constitution makes clear that the federal constitution takes precedence over state constitutions – so when the two are in conflict, it is absolutely up to the Attorney General to make that decision.” How any of that is a “punch in the nose” is beyond me.

Finally, and most egregiously, is Schapiro’s wildly false equivalence in comparing Ken Cuccinelli’s “politicizing the law on health care, climate change and abortion restrictions” (not to mention his witchhunts against Professor Michael Mann, the EPA, etc.) with Mark Herring upholding the constitution and the law to the best of his knowledge and ability. That’s not just flat-out false, it’s completely uncalled for, bordering on outrageous — a “punch in the nose” if you will, and certainly not up to Jeff Schapiro’s usual standards, let alone subtlety.

Political reporters paint investments in clean energy as a pander to a narrow segment of the Democratic base, while pledges to continue investment in coal are framed as smart plays to shoring up the moderate middle. And of course you have to support corn ethanol or you’ll lose the entire center of the country!

But take a look at this new poll of homeowners by Zogby Analytics for Clean Edge and Solar City. It’s solar and wind that are broadly popular, while coal and biofuels have only fringe support – and keep in mind this question allowed people to name their top three.

Meanwhile, for all the talk of the popularity of fracked gas, it finished a distant third to clean energy.

We already know that Virginians overwelmingly support cutting carbon pollution while increasing emphasis on energy efficiency and clean power solutions like solar and wind. We also know that Virginians support doing this for strong reasons: environmental protection, job creation, lower power costs and increased freedom from reliance on monopoly utilities, to name just a few. Now, NRDC is out with a new report, “Bridging the Clean Energy Divide: Affordable Clean Energy Solutions

for Today and Tomorrow,” which adds two more powerful arguments for clean energy to the list: economic fairness and social justice. As the report explains:

…we must consider the disproportionate health impacts of dirty, coal fired power generation on low-income communities and people of color. According to the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP), people of color and low-income families are more likely to live in close proximity to the coal plants that generate most of our electricity. People of color make up 36 percent of the U.S. population, but 39 percent of those who live within three miles of a coal-fired power plant. Coal plants that are located in urban areas are overwhelmingly sited in communities of color. While 56 percent of white Americans live within 30 miles of a power plant, 68 percent of African Americans do. African Americans frequent the emergency room for asthma attacks three times as often as white Americans do.

In stark contrast, clean energy choices will disproprotionately benefit low-income Virginians, people on fixed incomes, etc. A few highlights from the report illustrate why that’s the case.

*Energy efficiency “allows people to lower their energy use (and therefore their energy bills) without sacrificing services like light and heat…making bills lower for all customers, even those who did not install efficiency measures in their own buildings.” Keep in  mind that energy costs “make up a significant portion of the annual incomes of hundreds of thousands of Americans,” so again, lower-income Virginians will benefit disproportionately from a switch from dirty to clean energy.

*More good news on the energy efficiency front and low-income households: “Energy inefficient housing can be expensive, even if the nominal mortgage payment or rent is low, and energy efficiency can make a big difference in achieving and keeping the dream of home ownership. A study from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the Institute of Market Transformation found that mortgages secured by families in houses meeting Energy Star efficiency standards experienced substantially lower rates of delinquency and default, with 32 percent fewer defaults compared with non-Energy Star homes.”

*How about multifamily housing, which “accounts for 26.1 percent of all housing units in the United States, providing homes to more than 17 million households nationwide-including nearly one half of all very low-income renters?” The NRDC study finds that energy efficiency improvements in those building “could save building owners and residents up to $3.4 billion every year.”

*Finally, with regard to renewable energy, this report highlights what we’ve talked about repeatedly: namely, that “Renewable Energy Is Cost-effective and Increasingly Available.” As I’ve pointed out a gazillion times, “energy efficiency is the lowest-cost resource” — far cheaper than coal, nuclear or natural gas, and that’s not even taking into account the enormous subsidies (both direct and indirect) and negative “externalities” (environmental, health, etc.) of non-renewable energy sources.  The next least expensive form of energy, by the way, is not a fossil fuel, but onshore wind, which is very similar to advanced, highly efficient “combined-cycle” natural gas-fired power plants.

*As for solar PV, it’s already in the cost range of coal-fired and nuclear power plants, with one huge advantage: solar power costs have been plummeting, and are expected to continue falling, while solar efficiency rates continue to increase as the technology improves. In stark contrast, as the new NRDC report points out, “A major risk in being overly dependent on fossil fuels is price volatility.”

Bottom line: there are already a wide range of strong reasons to transition rapidly off of dirty fossil fuels and onto clean energy, including the social justice and economic fairness benefits to low-income Virginians — not just in the inner cities, but in other poor areas of the state, including (ironically) the coalfields of far southwestern Virginia. What on earth are we waiting for, and why is our governor wasting all of our time with the natural gas “bridge to nowhere?”

Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Wednesday, April 8.

*South Carolina Officer Is Charged With Murder in Black Man’s Death (Completely outrageous, disgusting, unacceptable…)

*Everything The Police Said About Walter Scott’s Death Before A Video Showed What Really Happened (What if there hadn’t been video?!?)

*Black Pastor Who Spoke At Rand Paul’s Rally: Obama Will “Evolve” From Christianity (Of course, Rand Paul is a nut who has hung out with deranged conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, so what else would we expect at his presidential campaign kickoff?)

*Rand Paul Would Be The Worst President On Civil Rights Since The 1800s (And most everything else too.)

*Humiliating the poor (“A wave of legislation strips dignity away.”)

*Rahm Emanuel Re-Elected as Mayor of Fiscally Ravaged Chicago

*Tom Steyer launches effort to keep climate deniers out of office (Gotta get a whole bunch of fossil fuel industry puppets OUT of office too!)

*Our Endangered Climate: Kicking off Public Health Week

*Climate hawk takes flight (David Roberts, one of the most important writers – on the environment, energy and U.S. politics – with one of the lowest profiles. Hopefully, the latter part’s about to change.)

*Rand Paul’s terrifying vision for America: The truth about his plan for “Economic Freedom Zones” (“The senator’s detailed economic policy agenda is like something out of an Ayn Rand fever dream”)

*NY Times: Israel’s Unworkable Demands on Iran

*For Barbara Comstock of Virginia, a Switch From Left to Right (Democrats had better defeat her in 2016. If not, she could be there a looong time.)

*Susan Stimpson says Bill Howell tied to group seeking “mixed-sex bathrooms” in schools

*Paul enjoys grassroots support, but may face headwinds in defense-heavy Virginia

*Schapiro: Herring’s as subtle as a punch in the nose (This is the epitome of “false equivalence” and other flawed reasoning. Definitely the worst column I’ve ever read by Jeff Schapiro – by far!)

*Craig County cranks up the heat on pipeline company

*Dominion withdraws pipeline lawsuits – then will refile (Lovely.)

*Virginia water demand to jump 32 percent by 2040, report says

*Groups present anti-pipeline petition in Richmond

*Source: Feds found no evidence of corruption in Norment probe (It’s called “legalized corruption.”)

*Fraternity supports U-Va. chapter in what could be difficult libel battle

*Joe Morrissey Sues to Get on Ballot (“Says party officials violated his ‘fundamental right to participate in the political process.'”)

*Rigell flouts convention at Newport News town hall (What does this headline mean? “Flouts” convention? In what sense? Weird.)

*Cool and drizzly for two more days, then a warmer weekend ahead