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Virginia News Headlines: Tuesday Morning

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Here are a few Virginia and national news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, October 15. Also, check out the video (courtesy of Decision Virginia) of Ken Cuccinelli ranting in 2012 about “how soft and weak the leadership of my church has been,” how he finds it “amazing” that God hasn’t harshly judged America for having legal abortion (but muses, “Who knows what the future holds?”), how far we have fallen because we’ve changed the definition of “family,” how “abortion clinics” mostly are in “minority areas” (and how that’s “not a coincidence” because Planned Parenthood was founded by someone who wanted to get rid of “undesirables”), etc, etc. Ee gads, the more you listen to this guy, the more you are absolutely sure he’s a deluded fanatic. (Also love his revisionist history on the Founding Fathers, many of whom were deists, theists, etc.)

*Senate leaders close to deal on shutdown, debt ceiling (“An emerging pact would extend the Treasury’s borrowing authority until February, reopen the government through mid-January and include only minor changes to Obamacare, policymakers say.”)

*Ugly rebel yell in front of the White House (Shocker: that mob of neo-confederates, Islamophobes, etc. was led by Ken Cuccinelli’s BFF Ted Cruz.)

*Cuccinelli warned of God’s judgment related to abortion in 2012 speech (Cuckoo: “Really, Given that God does judge nations, it’s amazing that abortion has run as far and foully as it has, without what I would consider to be a greater imposition of judgment on this country…Who knows what the future holds?”)

*What Barack Obama, Republicans get with a deal

*Duggars rally for GOP candidates at Liberty University (These people are all nuts.)

*Cuccinelli has drawn deep lines between what he believes is right and wrong (“Legislators who served with him in Richmond, Democrats and Republicans alike, say Cuccinelli would often rather be right than win, making it hard to find middle ground.”)

*Close delegate race in western Loudoun mirrors Virginia’s ideological clash (“…with public opinion increasingly turning against staunchly conservative members of the GOP as a result of the federal government shutdown, Democrat Mary Costello Daniel said she sees an opportunity for the historically Republican territory to swing blue.”)

*Gerson: Conservatism meets Occupy Wall Street (“While it is difficult to call Cruz’s 317 votes significant by itself, the summit measured the mood in a portion of the right. Two themes were common: apocalyptic diagnosis and utopian solutions.”

*Virginia Gov.’s Race Previews Shutdown Politics for 2014

*In military-heavy Hampton Roads, veterans fear loss of benefits as shutdown lingers (Thanks Republicans!)

*Virginia voters disgusted by their gubernatorial choices of Cuccinelli, McAuliffe

*A bad turn on early education (“McDonnell lost interest in Race to the Top, but recent grants for pre-school  are the most beneficial.”)

*Deadline is today to register to vote

*Dems say Obenshain backed probe of climate scientist

*GOP says McAuliffe non-disclosure merits investigation (“It’s obvious why Ken Cuccinelli would make another false charge: He infamously failed to disclose stock and lavish gifts from a company and its CEO that his office was supposed to be pursuing for unpaid taxes but instead let off the hook.”)

*NASA’s not talking, but Virginia company confirms spacecraft now orbiting moon

*Unsequestered sunshine today, but rain risk returns late Thursday

Elections Matter: If You Value the Vote, Elect Democrats

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Fellow Democrats, this chart, from The Nation tells the story of the disastrous vote suppression unfolding in just one state. It’s happening throughout this nation. The GOP falsely purports that it must protect Americans from near-zero “voter fraud.” In numerous ways, the GOP has shown itself unfit to be a protector of the vote. And, as always, it turns out that we Democrats must actually protect Americans from Republicans because it is they who take away our freedoms, especially our right to vote.

I have reported on these pages what has happened to the vote in North Carolina. You experienced not that long ago an attempt by the Virginia GA to do a non-scheduled ad hoc gerrymander which would have moved 60% of Virginia voters to different congressional districts. Then recently, Democratic voters were unjustifiably purged from Virginia voter rolls right before the election. Over and over since the Katherine Harris days in 2000 Florida, Republicans have conjured up more ways to deprive lawfully registered voters from exercising their right. We’ve witnessed state after state peel away voters with foreign sounding names, never mind they are actually US citizens. We are the melting pot after all. In Arizona, while Jan Brewer was Secretary of State, she wiped one third of all the voters in Phoenix off the voter rolls. Now she is the governor of Arizona, where a legislator is pushing a two-tiered voting system. It’s a terrible idea and one guaranteed to assure Republican rule at ALL levels indefinitely.

Here’s how it would work. Voters who cannot prove their citizenship (there actually is no iron-clad “proof’ especially when birthers challenge even birth certificates), second tier citizens could only vote in federal elections. Thus states might not not run afoul of federal election law. With especially minorities, immigrants and various assorted other Democratic leaning folks forced into the pool of the second-tier voters, they would never be able to vote for local and state positions.

You can bet the second tier would continue to grow  with a small minority of conservative white Republicans controlling everything but the presidency. The rest of Americans could never vote, muchless run for office for these positions. They could have no influence on redistricting in their states either, meaning that Republicans will officiating over gerrymandering in perpetuity.

Proposals already introduced in both Arizona and Kansas will soon be introduced to an ALEC-owned legislature near you. It is difficult to imagine that any proposals could be worse than those just passed in North Carolina.  But the Arizona and Kansas proposals are.

You can avoid this by voting Democratic, not just for president and Congress, but this year in Virginia for governor, delegate, state Senator and local offices as well. Let me add that in order to have Dems in charge of the state electoral board, you’d better elect Terry McAuliffe governor. At the local level in Virginia you need to elect Dems too.

There is a difference. One party, the Democratic Party, actually protects the vote. The Republican Party suppress it. It’s that simple. For the foreseeable future, we must elect Democrats at all levels.  

What Lessons Learned?

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What Lessons Learned?

What discoveries has the turn of the 21st century revealed to us?  After 2008 or nine months in 2013?  What have we learned since October first?  And from whom have we chosen to learn?

Keep in mind, for a mind to engage in learning, it must be open as wide as possible to all that is possible, and, listen.

Now with the vast starry universe full of mysterious miracles above us, Mother Earth and all that lives upon it at our feet, and a whispering world swirling all around us, what lessons have we won to hold close, forever?

Have we learned that those who curse government to a size enabling it to be drowned in a bathtub, are not seat of learning for Government of, by and for the people?

Yet, a few Points of Right have taught us that the power of We the People to rise up and say, ‘Enough with the Nonsense, Grow up and do your job:  Honor our Troops with paychecks, Fund Head Start and open the Zoo,’ are more powerful than any tea party throwing America overboard from their Ship of Denial, sailing down river, navigating on a misguided Ted Cruz.

Have we learned enough from The Slings and Arrows of Outrageous Fortune that accompanies voting against, first America’s, then second, your best interest?  Do you now get the necessary connection between Americans and the rest of the world, as much psychological trust as financial, and more personal relationships than military empire?

Surely we’ve learned that Newark is no more surrounded by a river of dead bodies, than Brewer’s Arizona dessert is of severed heads.  However, if tag team Lonegan & Palin paint Jersey Senate race racial, defeating anti-gun violence Mayor Booker, what have we learned?

Did we learn expired Farm Bill was for all who eat, not just farmers;  Redskins — as have the demented medical terms once used to label patients with mental disorders — like all racial slurs, once historically accepted, have in overtime proven, it’s time for a Time Out.

Perhaps we’ve learned that saving the world from Chemical weapons and, Educating Everyone, are the brother and sister of World Peace.

Not win or lose, but elected officials can’t play games.  When 75% of We The People speak our open-mindedness, the rights of the 25% to speak theirs is protected, but not allowed to devastate the reasons America is the single most trusted economic shot heard round the world, as long as U. S. Savings Bonds and U. S. Treasury Bonds remain the sweetest and safest deal, providing global peace of mind.

Now for graduates:  the family budget of 99% of Americans has almost nothing in common with how the budget of U. S Government works (using deficit for forty-five years out of the last half century); or as Presidents Kennedy and Reagan might have put it, deficit and expenditures are like Left and Right brain – both needed to work together for our success, but both (deficit and expenditure) not meant to control one another, and both (Left & Right) not meant to be a divided brain against itself.

The best lesson of all?  Learning the value of all those who protect children of all ages, with education.

We’re learning all the time, whether in classrooms, family rooms, street corners or Congressional back rooms.  The lessons that change a mind, a life, a world are everywhere.  To learn best about government, Wall Street or America, don’t ask a politician, ask life’s first responders:  teachers, social workers, single parents, civil servants, receptionists, firemen, police….

Thus ends the lesson, but the greatest of these:  listen to life saving teachers and avoid Tea stained cliffs.

http://alturl.com/4m9jm

With 3 Weeks to Go, It’s John Bell 47%-David Ramadan 47%

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The following memo is from the John Bell for Delegate campaign in the 87th district. Clearly, it’s never easy to beat an incumbent, but hopefully a strong GOTV program and a couple more weeks of talking to voters about the clear difference between the candidates will do the trick. And yes, there are huge differences, given that Ramadan is a Cuccinelli style (see photo) right-wing nutjob (with the usual, horrible votes on everything we care about, according to Project Vote Smart), yet somehow he’s holding down a 57% Obama/Kaine district. On November 5, it’s time to change that! (note: Ramadan won by only 51 votes in the 2011 House of Delegates election, so make sure you vote on November 5!)

Memorandum  

Date: October 14, 2013  

To: Interested Parties  

From: Andrew Myers & Lauren Spangler

Status of the Contest – VA HD87

According to the results of our recent survey of 400 likely November voters, Democrat John Bell and Republican David Ramadan are locked in an absolute statistical dead heat today with both candidates tied at 47 percent apiece.1

The contest is driven in large part by a substantial 12 point gender gap, with Bell leading among women by 6 points, 51 to 45 percent, and Ramadan leading among men by 6 points, 43 to 49 percent. Also of note today is that among moderate Republicans, Ramadan is experiencing serious defections, with one quarter (27 percent) supporting Bell at this stage – troubling news  for Ramadan indeed.


Underscoring the competitive nature of this contest is the fact that the political  environment appears to favor Democrats, unlike the trends two years ago. First off, this survey finds a more favorable generic ballot for Democrats, with a generic Democrat besting a generic Republican candidate for Delegate by 6 points, 47 to 41 percent, which in fact is the most favorable ballot we have seen in this district to date. Further, at the top of the ticket, Democrat Terry McAuliffe leads Republican Ken Cuccinelli by a 7 point edge, 49 to 42 percent. Secondly, though out of Ramadan’s control in this Northern Virginia district – where there are many federal workers – we find that 42 percent of voters say that the federal government shutdown makes them more likely to vote against party-line Republicans, 33 percent much more so, reflective of the intensity of these feelings.

Bottom line, this contest is incredibly ompetitive and is likely to come down to the wire come Election Day, just as the contest here did two years ago.

—————————-

1 These findings are based on a survey of 400 likely November general election voters in Virginia’s 87th  House of Delegates District. Calling took place from October 9 – 10, 2013, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research | Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.9 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater and varies

Pioneer of In Vitro Fertilization Slams E.W. Jackson for Calling It “Kind of Evil”

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From the Northam for LG campaign:

Jackson’s book stirs more controversy

Richmond, VA-Today on a conference call with members of the media Dr. Ralph Northam and Dr. Howard Jones criticized Republican E.W. Jackson for his support of Personhood legislation, which would outlaw common forms of birth control and in vitro fertilization.

Dr. Jones, the author of Personhood Revisited, ripped Jackson for writing in his book that in vitro fertilization was a “kind of evil”. Jones explained the dangers of Jackson’s rigid ideology when it comes to reproductive health care.

“Doctors and their patients do not need E.W. Jackson or any politican meddling in private medical decisions,” said Dr. Howard Jones. “To call in vitro fertilization evil is offensive to the families who have had to use this procedure. The Personhood legislation that Jackson supports is reckless and misguided. If it were up to him, in vitro and many forms of birth control would be made illegal.”

“Dr. Jones and I have worked together at Eastern Virginia Medical School for many years and I respect his groundbreaking work in the area of in vitro, it really put EVMS on the map,” said candidate for Lt. Governor Ralph Northam. “Politicians, most of whom are men should not be telling women what they can and cannot be doing with their bodies. Mr. Jackson’s unyielding ideology is a threat to the future of in vitro and common forms of birth control. His views are anti-science and anti-common sense.”

Tea Party candidate E.W. Jackson has endorsed the controversial Personhood legislation and in his book referred to in vitro as a “kind of evil”.

Strike While the Iron Is Hot

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( – promoted by lowkell)

How We Can Hear Opportunity Knocking in These GOP Poll Numbers

Everybody knows: the polls show a huge drop in the poll numbers for Republicans.  What that means is that millions of people are in the process of changing their image of the Republican Party. For the worse. Maybe much worse.

But people have short memories. The image of the Republicans recklessly taking hostages over the shutdown and the threat of default will soon begin to recede.  When the ugliness that this episode has revealed recedes from view, these millions of people whose views of the GOP are in flux will likely shift back in the direction of their old views, as when the GOP polled better.

Unless the Democrats strike while the iron is hot. That means taking every opportunity to highlight what will doubtless be other Republican conduct in the future that confirms what these millions are now coming to see.

Almost two-thirds of Americans now see the Republicans as promoting their own agenda at the expense of the public good.  They’ve been doing this for years, and they’re not about to stop.

The job for the Democrats now is to call them out on their power-hungry disregard of the nation’s welfare every time it’s on display.  That will reinforce what so many Americans are now more receptive to seeing.

People have seen that the Republicans do not speak the truth. Democrats should call them on their lies, every time.  They see that the Republicans run roughshod over the norms of our democracy.  Call them out.  They see that the Republicans are unhinged from reality (default would be no big deal). Keep the focus on how dangerous it would be to let such unhinged people steer our nation.

Today’s Republican Party is fully as bad as these recent weeks have shown them to be.  This crisis has opened the door to solidifying that realization in the minds of millions of Americans.

Nothing could be more important for us Americans at this point in our history.

The destructive force that’s taken over the Republican Party in our times has done enormous damage already to this nation, and threatens to do much more.  The way to make America safe is to take away from this force the power to wreak that damage.  As we still have a democracy, that power rests on the support of the American people.  Take away that support, and you drain away that power.

That’s the big picture of why this is Job One.

More immediately, if the Obama presidency is to be able to accomplish much of anything in the time that’s left, it will be necessary to take control of the House away from the GOP.  The 2014 elections are the battle that will determine whether President Obama is able to move the country forward, or just stand as a barrier to the worst efforts of the Republican Wrecking Crew.

We who see the Republican Party for the monstrosity it has become have a job to do. We should exhort our Democratic leaders to strike while the iron is hot.  We should make sure that these upcoming elections in Virginia give the Democrats a stunning victory, underscoring the public’s rejection of Republican extremism.  We should organize to elevate powerful messages and the people who can deliver them.

The metaphor of striking while the iron is hot captures an important reality about how the world works.  There are times when things are solidified, and change is very difficult to accomplish-that’s when the iron is cold.  And there are times when things are hot and therefore molten and malleable, ready to be shaped by the man with the hammer and the anvil and the skill to bend the metal into the shape he wants.

The immediate crisis has made the iron hot.  When this crisis is over, it will be time not to back off but to keep striking.

**************

Andy Schmookler, recently the Democratic nominee for Congress from Virginia’s 6th District, is an award-winning author, political commentator, radio talk-show host, and teacher.  His books include The Parable of the Tribes:  The Problem of Power in Social Evolution.   His website is at www.NoneSoBlind.org .

Hit it out of the park, Terry…

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( – promoted by lowkell)

When listening to political debates, rarely does the moderator ask a question that makes me sit back and think: “nicely phrased … wouldn’t have thought to ask this … interested to hear the answer …”  Chuck Todd’s opening question at the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce debate about advertising fostered that reaction.

As posed to our next governor, Terry McAuliffe

Nearly $20 million’s been spent on TV ads in this race. 75% of ’em, we did the calculation, have been negative. This is both of you. I want each of you to respond to the stereotype you’ve been tryin’ to create– about the other. Mr. McAuliffe, the stereotype of you is that you’re an operator, cheerleader more than a legislator or governor. That you don’t have the relevant experience to be governor. And that you’re a man in a hurry, who’s willing to use political connections, sometimes in very high places, to take shortcuts. Your response?

This question provided Terry a chance to hit a homer out of the park, make news, undercut Cuccinelli, and add — in my opinion, with just this one question response and the reporting that might have followed from it — points to the lead.  

See after the fold for a concept for a(n overly long) truthful response to the question that might have achieved this result.

Responding to messages:

Thank you, Todd, for this question and the chance to respond to the serial character assassination efforts that, in fact, represent not just a misrepresentation of me but a disservice to Virginians.

I created my first business when I was 14 years old.  Rather than a youth who wanted to earn some money on his own, to save money for college and have money to take a girl on a date, if we listened to the abusive attack ads, evidently I must have been an incredibly politically connected teenager to be able to create my successful business.  And, listening to those ads, perhaps it is a bad thing for teenagers and Americans to be entrepreneurial.

Now, in creating that business, of course I first approached neighbors that I knew.  Don’t all successful business people leverage the relationships that they have built, with people who have confidence in them because of the quality that they have already delivered to them.

In my political life and in my business life, of course I have been willing to pick up the phone and call people I know, to work with them, to get their advice, to have them help me figure out best paths to success.  

And, looking over my career, it is self-evident that there are Republicans, Democrats, and Independents in my ‘rolodex’.  

Somehow, if you listen to the attack ads, having built up good will with people across the political divide, with people in business, academe, the clergy, and otherwise, such that they will pick up the phone and be ready to work with you is somehow a bad thing.

Listening to those attack ads, perhaps you’d get the impression that it is a good thing to be so ideologically pure that the only people who would return your call are those responsible for shutting down the Federal government and undermining our nation’s ability to do business.  

I hold it as a badge of honor that there are thousands of people — across the nation, across the political spectrum — who are ready to work with me, even if they don’t agree with me on every issue, to figure out how to get things done.

And, unlike some people, I haven’t had to make it an effort to return $10,000s of “gifts” amid criminal investigations.

And, when Governor, I proudly tell you now that I plan to leverage that Rolodex to get things done on behalf of all of the people of the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Turning to another item, over 20 years ago, I chose to move to Virginia. I chose to become a Virginian.  And, I made a choice such that my four children are native-born Virginians.  

Evidently, according to the attack ads, one who chooses to become a citizen of the Commonwealth and who votes, pays taxes, and lives in the Commonwealth is somehow not a real Virginian.  

This makes me wonder — just how many Virginians have been citizens for less than 20 years and who, evidently, aren’t considered real Virginians by my opponent?

This makes me wonder — just how long does one need to live, vote, and pay taxes in the Commonwealth of Virginia before my opponent would consider them real Virginians? 25 years? 30 years?  Or, do you have to be born in Virginia to be an actual Virginian?

This makes me wonder — thinking about my opponent’s efforts to control a woman’s right to choose, perhaps one needs to be conceived in the Commonwealth to be a real Virginian.

The Commonwealth is strengthened by attracting the best and brightest from around the nation, from around the world, to come and live here.  The attack ads on me are saying ‘don’t bother coming, because you won’t be considered or treated as a real Virginian.’  Our immigrants — whether from New Jersey or India or West Virginia — are real Virginians, to be welcomed with open arms as we create a better future for all of Virginia and all Virginians.

Finally, I like to get things done. I wake up, every morning, enthused about moving things forward. I find it truly rewarding to go to sleep at night knowing that I achieved something that day.  Evidently, if you listen to the attack ads, getting things done and working passionately to help people is somehow a mistake.  

In short, contrary to the attack ads messaging, I am a proud Virginian who has worked successfully with a broad range of people who will work, tirelessly, to make Virginia a better and stronger Commonwealth.

————

Terry’s actual response to Chuck Todd’s question:

I’m a young man who grew up in– Syracuse, New York. I started my first business when I was 14 years old, ’cause I had to help pay for college. I’ve been involved in a number of businesses since that time, chairman of a bank by the age of 30, built thousands of homes. I’ve been involved in a wide variety of different businesses. I want to bring that business approach, that business experience. I think it’s important to have someone in the governor’s office who has those business experience, understands the ups and downs of businesses, understands that risk is inherent in our economy, and is willing to put everything in to make sure we grow and diversify our economy.

With sequestration, with the budget cuts that we have seen in the Department of Defense, with $500 billion, the stimulus is over, the next governor’s real challenge is how do you grow and diversify our businesses? How do we create new economic activity? Dorothy and I would love to have our five children stay in Virginia. But in order to stay in Virginia, we need to have those jobs of the 21st century, cyber security, nanotechnology, bio life sciences. Those are what we need to do to grow our economy.

Now we have had a lot of different ads. And there are differences between the two of us. My opponent has spent most of his career on a social ideological agenda. He has– pushed personhood legislation which would outlaw most forms of contraception, would make the pill illegal in Virginia. He bullied the Board of Health that would shut down the woman’s health centers. Women are 50% of the workforce of the United States of America. You cannot grow an economy by putting walls up around Virginia

Mann, Petersen, McEachin Rip Obenshain for Supporting Cuccinelli Climate Science “Witch Hunt”

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I just got off a press call with former UVA Professor and world-renowned climate change scientist Michael E. Mann, along with Virginia State Senators Donald McEachin and Chap Petersen. The point of the call was to highlight Tea Party candidate Mark Obenshain’s continued efforts to cover up his extreme record, in this case specifically about his stance on Ken Cuccinelli’s personal crusade against Dr. Mann’s climate science work.

*Dr. Mann kicked of the call and made a few key points about Ken Cuccinelli’s attacks on him, on climate science, and on the the University of Virginia. He noted that Mark Obenshain supported Cuccinelli on the anti-climate-science witch hunt, but is now trying (misleadingly) to claim otherwise.

*Mann argued that what Cuccinelli did was “completely unacceptable,” a “witch hunt,” an “inquisition,” a “crusade,” all of which “threatened me and my family all to advance his political career,” “simply because he finds the science of climate change inconvenient to the special interests which fund his campaign.”  

*In fact, Mann explained, Cuccinelli was completely wrong on the science of climate change, which has only become stronger and more certain over time.

*”It was Mark Herring who was the first…Virginia politician who was willing to stand up and say this attack was completely unjustified, back in 2010.” Others, like Senators Petersen and McEachin, introduced legislation that would have prevented another Attorney General like Ken Cuccinelli from doing this type of thing again. This was also about whether you think the office of Attorney General should be hyperpartisan and allow you to attack people you disagree with.

*According to Mann, “The ONE person who stood up to oppose the bill [aimed at preventing another anti-climate-science witch hunt] was Mark Obenshain, and that speaks volumes…about what sort of person he is, what sort of Attorney General he would be. Now he’s claiming…that he would have done things differently, but when this was happening he stood firmly behind Ken Cuccinelli’s attack on me and the University of Virginia.

*It appears, in Mann’s view, that Obenshain “will say or do anything to get elected, based on his sudden…denial of what he had originally said and done with respect to the Ken Cuccinelli attack.”

*”This Cuccinelli-Obenshain approach to governing is to put politics first and then try to tell the voters something different…That same approach means denying climate change and denying any scientific findings that are inconvenient to the special interests that fund your campaign…that’s extremely dangerous for Virginia.”

*”Obenshain has said that he wants to take the baton from Ken [Cuccinelli] and build on his work without missing a step, those are his words. And clearly the vote to continue giving Cuccinelli carte blanche to investigate whoever he wants and then pretend it didn’t happen shows that Obenshain in fact will be just like Ken Cuccinelli, somebody who puts extreme ideology ahead of the interests of the people he’s supposed to represent.

*Sen. Chap Petersen said he sponsored Senate Bill 831 in 2011, which “specifically responded to the UVA inquisition.” The bill would have “limited the power of the Attorney General to issue subpoenas and to go after entities in the Virginia Fraud Against Taxpayers Act.” Petersen’s bill specifically excepted “matters of academic inquiry and research from being considered grounds for quote unquote frauds on the taxpayer.” It was done “to protect people like Michael Mann…in whatever academic discipline…I don’t want professors being inhibited by thinking if they pursue a grant or pursue research that they would be leaving themselves exposed to a lawsuit by the state.”

*What really struck Chap about what Cuccinelli did is that he was using taxpayer funds – “my funds as a taxpayer” – to go after someone who’s an academic who’s researching issues of significant public policy interest.

*Chap’s bill “came out of committee with a solid vote…went to the floor,” where it was opposed on by Sen. Obenshain. It went on to pass by a bipartisan vote, including the Senate Minority Leader who voted for it, but “it was opposed by Senator Obenshain.”

*Sen. Donald McEachin said that Mark Obenshain has been trying to “change his stripes” during this campaign. The question is, would Obenshain have acted the same way as Cuccinelli vis-a-vis the anti-Michael Mann “witch hunt?” The unquestionable answer is “yes,” as Obenshain answered a question from a conservative blogger (D.J. McGuire) about Michael Mann, and Obenshain’s answer was “absolutely.” Case closed.

*Just as bad, Obenshain said he wants to continue Cuccinelli’s approach as Attorney General, sees him as the “model Attorney General.Cuccinelli, Obenshain, and E.W. Jackson are “in fundamental agreement with one another.”

*Obenshain, just like Cuccinelli, would “pursue his own personal, narrow agenda to accomplish his own ends.”

*In Virginia we believe in academic freedom, that the sorts of things that happened to Professor Mann should never happen to anyone. The problem with Obenshain is that he’d pursue the same exact witch hunts that Cuccinelli has pursued.

P.S. A question came up on the call about where exactly Obenshain distanced himself from Cuccinelli on this issue. Two seconds of Googling found the answer in the Daily Press, where Obenshain said “he thinks certain academic research is protected…’I understand the principle of academic freedom.'” Yeah right! LOL

Poll: Kathleen Murphy 48%-Barbara Comstock 45%

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Encouraging news from the Kathleen Murphy for Delegate campaign. Now, let’s hope the Republican “brand” has become so toxic due to the Republican government shutdown, social issues extremism, etc., that it takes down a bunch of Republican Delegates currently holding down “Obama/Kaine districts.” Oh, and if you’re interested, you can read my interview with Kathleen Murphy here. She’s a remarkable woman who will make s superb addition to the Virginia House of Delegates!

Memorandum


Date: October 11, 2013

To: Interested Parties

From: Andrew Myers & Lauren Spangler

Status of the Contest – VA HD34

_____________________________

According to the results of our recent survey of 400 likely November voters, the contest for control in the 34th House of Delegates has moved to an absolute dead heat today, with Democrat Kathleen Murphy leading Republican Barbara Comstock by 3 points, 48 to 45 percent1. Just as importantly, in our simulated model, in which undecided voters are allocated to the candidates based on their self-described partisan leanings, Murphy captures majority status and bests Comstock by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.

Overall, this survey demonstrates that there have been dramatic changes in Comstock’s personal standing – her cool, or negative impressions, have grown by a 12 points to 36 percent and favorable impressions have dropped by 11 points to 40 percent. Most notable in this shift is that all of the negative growth has been in the very unfavorable category. Consequently, Comstock’s job ratings have also shifted, and today voters split nearly evenly in their impressions of her work as Delegate with 45 percent saying she is doing an excellent or good job, an 8 point drop, and 44 percent rating the job she is doing as just fair or poor, an 11 point increase.

The favorable trends afoot here for Democrats are also seen at the top of the ticket, where Terry McAuliffe bests Ken Cuccinelli by 15 points, 54 to 39 percent, and in the generic legislative contest, where today a generic Democrat leads a generic Republican for Delegate by 9 points, 50 to 41 percent. Notably that performance mirrors the generic performance we saw in this district in 2007 when Democrat Margie Vanderhye carried the district on Election Day.

Bottom line, the salience of Murphy’s message and contrast with Comstock on choice, along with a favorable electoral environment, in part fueled by the federal government shutdown, have all come together to put this contest solidly in play for Democrats, and it represents the Democrats’ best shot to win control of this seat in the last two elections.

—————————————

1 These findings are based on a survey of 400 likely November 2009 voters in Virginia’s 34th House of Delegates District. Calling took place from October 9 – 10, 2013, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Myers Research | Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.9 percent. The margin of error for subgroups is greater and varies.