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Shutdown Severely Harming GOP Incumbents; Frank Wolf in Danger of Being Ousted?!?

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It’s really amazing; House Republicans are so hell bent on stopping the EVIL EVIL EVIL “Obamacare” (note: the Afffordable Care Act is actually based heavily on conservative, Republican ideas like the “individual mandate,” but whatever…roll with it Republicans!) that they’re willing to destroy the country AND their own party in the process. Latest case in point? Rep. Frank Wolf (VA-10), who masquerades as a “moderate” when he’s voted for just about every Teahadist bill the past few years. That includes, yes, shutting down the government. What has this accomplished, other than hurting a lot of people in his district? Check out this new PPP poll to see how Wolf’s faring politically.

*Wolf’s approval/disapproval rating is not good, at just 42% approve vs. 38% disapprove. That’s seriously bad news for a long-time incumbent like Wolf.

*If the election were held today, Wolf is TIED with a generic Democratic opponent, 45%-45%.

*Actually, it’s even worse than that: once voters know that Wolf supported the government shutdown, he TRAILS a generic Democratic opponent by 4 points (42%-46%). Ouch!

*Voters in Wolf’s district are not fans of the Tea Party, to put it mildly, with just 32% viewing the Tea Party favorably vs. 58% who view it unfavorably.

*Voters in Wolf’s district also overwhelmingly (2:1 margins) OPPOSE shutting down the government and/or threatening to not increase the nation’s debt ceiling.

What’s really amazing to me, as someone who’s tried to inform people of Wolf’s districts for years about what a wingnut he’s become, is that voters’ eyes now FINALLY seem to be opening to what Wolf has morphed into. Previously, it was just about impossible to convince 10th CD voters that Wolf wasn’t the “good guy”/”moderate” they thought he was (and that he used to be, long long ago). Now, though, that may have all changed. Nice job, Republicans – in addition to trashing the United States, you’re also hell bent on losing control of the House of Representatives next November (not to mention having no chance of winning the White House in 2016).

P.S. The Republican self-immolation strategy could  claim its first victims in just over 3 weeks, right here in Virginia, if the “extreme team” of Cuccinelli/Jackson/Obenshain go down to defeat. Let’s make it happen!

National Humane Society Legislative Fund Endorses Mark Herring for Attorney General

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Great news from the Mark Herring for Attorney General campaign,especially if you're an animal lover like me. 

 

Tea Party AG candidate Obenshain’s egregious record on humane treatment of animals exposed

 

Today, the Mark Herring for Attorney General campaign highlighted an endorsement from the Humane Society Legislative Fund, the nation’s leading political advocacy organization for animal welfare, for his support of legislation in the Virginia General Assembly to advance the humane treatment of animals, while exposing Mark Obenshain’s egregious record on animal welfare.

 

Mark Herring is the only candidate in Virginia to receive an endorsement by the national Humane Society Legislative Fund. The full announcement by can be found here.

 

“The Attorney General has an important role to play in enforcing the Commonwealth’s animal protection laws, and sending a message to the General Assembly and the public when gaps in the legal framework need to be addressed,” said Sara Amundson, executive director of the Humane Society Legislative Fund. “We urge Virginia voters who care about animal protection to reject Mark Obenshain’s extreme record, and to support Mark Herring for Attorney General.”

Mark Obenshain’s voting record includes:

  • Being one of three Senators to vote against regulating puppy mills

  • Voting against a bill to end competitive fox penning, an action so heinous that opponents call it “barbaric"

  • Being one of two Senators who voted against increasing penalties for cockfighting

  • Voting against requiring veterinarians and shelter employees to notify law enforcement officials if a dog showed signs of being forced into a fight

 

Humane Dominion, a nonpartisan group that endorsed Republicans and Democrats who advocate for the humane treatment of Virginia’s animals, previously endorsed Herring and noted the clear differences between Herring and Obenshain when it comes to animal welfare.

 

“Anyone who has a pet or believes that common sense precautions should be taken to keep animals safe should vote for Mark Herring. It’s that simple,” said Laura Donahue, Secretary of the Board with Humane Dominion. “Mark Herring has been a friend of pet owners and Mark Obenshain has a record that is simply indefensible. It really makes you wonder what motivated Mark Obenshain to vote this way so consistently. He may tell voters one thing, but the truth is Mark Obenshain has long record of voting in a way that puts animals, including dogs and other pets, in serious danger.”

Humane Dominion has been holding events with pet owners, animal lovers and proponents of animal welfare across the state to highlight the differences between Herring's and Obenshain's records when it comes to the humane treatment of animals.

“Mark Obenshain’s record on the treatment of animals is dismal and reflects a total lack of concern for their well being,” said Robin Starr, a noted advocate for the humane treatment of animals. “His voting record has been consistent in its opposition to any measure that would save animal lives or reduce their suffering. Time and time again, Obenshain not only voted against reasonable measures to protect animals, such as a bill that would have regulated the abuses of horrific puppy mills, but he also urged other legislators to do so as well. He even voted against the law that made animal fighting a felony in Virginia and helped to defeat the bill to limit fox penning. His record should appall any animal lover.” 

Planned Parenthood VA PAC Calls Out Cuccinelli for Misleading Statements on Fox & Friends

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“Ken Cuccinelli’s comments on Fox this morning would be funny, if they weren’t so insulting to Virginia women”

Richmond, VA – Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC released the following statement condemning Virginia gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli for his misleading statements this morning on Fox and Friends. As polls continue to show, Cuccinelli’s extreme record and agenda on women’s health are costing him significantly with women. 

“Ken Cuccinelli’s comments on Fox this morning would be funny, if they weren’t so insulting to Virginia women. This is coming from the same politician who advocated for extreme and dangerous so-called ‘personhood’ legislation, which if enacted, could have interfered in personal, private medical decisions relating to birth control, access to fertility treatment, management of miscarriage, and access to safe and legal abortion, and Virginia’s targeted restrictions on abortion providers, which have dangerous implications on a woman’s ability to access health care. He has built his career on advancing policies that interfere with women’s personal medical decisions about birth control and safe and legal abortion.  Cuccinelli’s statements are the height of hypocrisy, but Virginia women will not be fooled – the more they learn about Ken Cuccinelli, the less likely they are to vote for him,” said Cianti Stewart-Reid, executive director of Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC.

Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and Planned Parenthood Votes launched the Keep Ken Out campaign back in February, and in the weeks leading up to Election Day, we are reaching out to thousands of women voters to make sure they know this about Cuccinelli’s agenda for them and their families:

1. His ultimate goal is to end access to safe and legal abortion.

2. He wants to cut access to Planned Parenthood’s preventive health services.

3. He wants to make birth control less affordable and less accessible.

Last week, Planned Parenthood Votes announced a million-dollar ad buy on Virginia TV and radio. You can read the press release and watch the TV ad here. You can learn more about the Keep Ken Out campaign here: http://keepkenout.org/

# # #

 

Paid for by Planned Parenthood Votes and Planned Parenthood Virginia PAC in support of Terry McAuliffe.
Authorized by Terry McAuliffe candidate for Governor.

This should put Cooch over the top: The Duggars are coming to town!!!

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No doubt a visit from the 19 (or, are there more?) Duggars should reverse the polls and put Cooch firmly in the lead.  Am I right or am I right?

The Duggar family from the TLC series “19 Kids and Counting” is planning a three-day bus tour starting Monday. The Duggars will make stops in Lynchburg, Richmond, Virginia Beach, Fredericksburg and Woodbridge in support of Cuccinelli, the father of seven.

The tour is sponsored by Family Research Council Action. The executive director of the conservative advocacy group is 25-year-old Josh Duggar, the oldest of the 19 Duggar children. He, his wife and their own three children recently moved to the D.C. area, a transition chronicled on the family’s show.

The Duggar family is familiar with the campaign trail: They publicly campaigned for former Sen. Rick Santorum in the 2012 presidential election, and family patriarch Jim Bob Duggar served as an Arkansas state representative from 1999 to 2003. He lost a primary bid for the U.S. Senate in 2002. – NBC 4 Washington, 10/11/13

http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

Forum on Income Inequality

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The National Affairs Committee of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee is hosting a forum on Income Inequality. “You Need a Raise!”

Get leading edge information on what Mark Shields calls the #1 Issue in the 2016 Presidential Elections.

Cosponsors include: Virginia AFL-CIO, Northern Virginia Labor Federation, Virginia Progressive Caucus, Fairfax County NAACP, Coalition of Asian Pacific Americans of Virginia, Unitarian Universalists for Social Justice in the National Capital Region and NOVA MovetoAmend

•Plus: Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Prince William County, 8th and 11th Congressional District Democratic Committees

This event is free of charge.

Hedrick Smith is the headliner.

17 October (5 days from now) in Ballston.

RSVP and more info: https://www.facebook.com/event…

Mo Elleithee on Ken Cuccinelli: “This is what a losing campaign feels like”

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Interesting analysis from Virginia/National Democratic political guru Mo Elleithee:

I’ve worked in politics a long time.  I’ve had some great wins.  And I’ve been on my fair share of losing campaigns.  I know what it feels like to have momentum, and I definitely know what it feels to be stuck in quicksand – when desperation just makes you sink even faster. 

Looking at Ken Cuccinelli’s campaign for Virginia Governor, they’re up to their necks in the quicksand.

 

With just over three weeks left in this campaign, Cuccinelli and his team are exhibiting all the tell-tale signs of a campaign that has no real strategy, no real message, and no real traction.

 

In short, they are not acting like a winning campaign.

 

Now, I know each campaign and election are different.  But, there are some universal truths in this business.  Here are a few I’ve picked up throughout my career.

 

The closer you get to Election Day, the more important the trendline is.  And in Virginia, the trendline is clearly headed in the wrong direction for Cuccinelli.  In the last 19 public polls on the race, Cuccinelli has trailed McAuliffe by an average of almost 6 points. In fact, he hasn’t even broken 40 percent in the Real Clear Politics average since early July. Since the government shutdown began, Cuccinelli has trailed by an average of nearly 8 points. And with nearly half of Virginians viewing Cuccinelli unfavorably, it’s clear voters don’t trust him – making it even harder for the Cuccinelli camp to change course.

 

In swing states, winning campaigns expand the universe.  Losing campaigns give up on everyone except the base. Instead of making a final pitch to undecided, independent voters in Virginia with less than a month to go, Cuccinelli is already shifting focus to turning out his conservative base. Just this week, he told WJLA“For us, we’re focusing on turning out our folks, and that means everybody who agrees with us on an issue.” In recent weeks, he’s headlined a Family Foundation gala with Senator Ted Cruz and held a rally with conservative firebrand Mark Levin. Rather than sticking with a broader message to appeal to the women voters and independents he’s struggling to win over, he’s gone home to the base and has counted out independents. Win independents, win the election. That’s how it’s gone for the last three governors – McDonnell, Kaine and Warner – and it’s likely to be true this time as well.

 

You cannot win statewide in Virginia if you are losing women by 20 pointsPolls aren’t just showing bad toplines for Cuccinelli. The numbers actually get worse in the crosstabs – especially with women voters. Yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll has Cuccinelli trailing McAuliffe by 20 points – 54 percent to 34 percent – among women. To put that in perspective, President Obama won women by near double digits in 2012, a key to him carrying the Commonwealth.

  

Campaigns expand their media buys when they’re winning.  They cut them when they’re losing.Politico reported this week that “Cuccinelli’s campaign has been making smaller and smaller ad buys over the past three weeks.” This is the same move that George Allen made last year when his campaign began sinking in the final stretch. By staying off the air in this critical time of the race, Cuccinelli is giving up on making a pitch to undecided, independent voters. Their challenge is compounded by the fact that Terry McAuliffe has reserved about $2 million in airtime over the final four weeks to make his closing pitch to Virginians while Cuccinelli’s camp has reserved none beyond this week. When you have the cash, you buy early because you get better placement and a better deal. Cuccinelli’s inability to attract the traditional GOP donor base in Virginia is showing its impact.

 

Winning campaigns don’t shake up their staff. After trailing in yet another poll last month, Cuccinelli shook up his staff. Instead of acknowledging that his campaign is failing to appeal to women and independent voters, Cuccinelli is blaming internal campaign mechanics and taking it out on his staff. 

 

It helps to have a message that is consistent with where voters areJust look at the government shutdown. Cuccinelli still won’t call out his Tea Party allies to stop playing chicken with shutdown and default. When asked about the shutdown, he said, “It is a federal government shutdown. I’m running for governor” – ignoring the outsized presence of affected federal workers in the Commonwealth. His embrace of Ted Cruz, who quarterbacked the GOP’s shutdown strategy, is already putting him in hot water with Virginians. This inconsistency and lack of clarity on major issues would signal trouble for any campaign this far along in a race.

 

If you’re going to tell voters why they shouldn’t vote for the other guy, you have to give them a reason to vote for you.  Cuccinelli is running a relentlessly negative campaign.  I don’t begrudge him that.  Elections are about choices, and there are plenty of differences between these two candidates.  But here’s the thing – if voters don’t like or trust you (see above section on polling), they tend to react badly to your negative ads.  And if you’re not giving them a reason to vote for you, chances are pretty slim that they will.

 

Now, don’t get me wrong. There’s still a lot of time left in this race, and Virginia is a competitive state. But the clock is ticking, and I don’t see them making any of the necessary changes they need to turn this race around.

 

As someone who has been there before, I’d much rather be in McAuliffe headquarters these days than Cuccinelli’s. 

Cutting One’s Losses Comes Hard

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( – promoted by lowkell)

There is apparently a human aversion to accepting the certainty of a loss, and that aversion helps illuminate the behavior of the Republicans in their present quandary.

That’s one of the things I’ve learned from a quite brilliant book I’m reading. Titled Thinking, Fast and Slow, it is written by Daniel Kahneman, an Israeli-American psychologist, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics for work he’s done on the non-rational aspects of human decision-making.

One piece of this book deals with how, contrary to much previous thinking of economists, humans do not make their decisions in a straight-forward rational fashion based on calculations of probabilities times magnitudes of possible gains and losses. People place an inordinately high weight on small possibilities, and they place a great value on the move from highly probable to certain. Add to that the fact that people feel more painful impact from losses than they feel pleasure from gains of the same magnitude, and one ends up with a two-by-two matrix that is relevant to the explanation of the Republicans’ recklessness in the current crisis. (The Republicans also have some other craziness problems, but I’m setting that aside for now.)

In this two-by-two matrix, there is either a high or a low probability of a gain or a loss of either a large or a small magnitude. In each of the four cases, people are given the option of taking a deal that gives certainty of a smaller gain/loss, or taking their chances of getting the whole thing.

What studies find is that people will take their chances on getting a big gain with a small probability (like buying a lottery ticket), and they’ll also gamble when it comes to the possibility a large loss for which there is a large probability. When there’s a large probability for a large gain, they’ll take a smaller gain to make it a sure thing. (People will take $900,000 for certain, for example, in preference to a 95% chance of winning a million.)

The quadrant the Republicans are in is the one where there’s a very high probability of a very large loss. When people are in that situation, will they accept a somewhat smaller loss for sure, or will they take their chances that somehow they can come out of the situation unscathed?

The answer is: people will generally reject the deal, and take their chances.

About this quadrant of the two-by-two matrix, Kahneman says (p. 318-9):

“Many unfortunate human situations unfold [in this quadrant]. This is where people who face very bad options take desperate gambles, accepting a high probability of making things worse in exchange for a small hope of avoiding a large loss. Risk taking of this kind often turns manageable failures into disasters. The thought of accepting the large sure loss is too painful, and the hope of relief too enticing, to make the sensible decision that it is time to cut one’s losses… Because defeat is so difficult to accept, the losing side in wars often fights long past the point at which the victory of the other side is certain, and only a matter of time.”

If that tendency to resist cutting one’s losses is true of humankind generally, we should note that it is especially true for these Republicans. Recent history has shown that more than any major American political group in a century and a half, these people seem virtually incapable of accepting anything but their dominance over others. That’s one of the ways in which we can see that, in the words of the series I’ve posted here “The Spirit That Drove Us to Civil War is Back”: neither the South in the election of 1860, nor the Republicans in the election of 2008 (or 2012, for that matter), could accept that, for a time, the constitutional election process had placed them in a subordinate role.

(This insistence on domination, this terror of the subordinate role, is one of the clues that leads into that heart of darkness that is at the core of the spirit of brokenness that drives today’s Republican Party.)

Refusal to accept a loss, any loss, leads to still more disastrous outcomes, as is shown by some poll results posted yesterday:

“Americans blamed Republicans over President Barack Obama for the shutdown by a margin of 22 percentage points, with 53 percent saying the GOP deserved more blame, and 31 percent saying Obama did. Approval ratings for the Republican Party and the tea party were at 24 percent and 21 percent respectively — both record lows as measured by NBC/WSJ.”

And how far will the Republican refusal to cut losses continue remains at this writing an open question.

Did Cuccinelli Change Career-Long Women’s Health Stance or Not?

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Good question from the DPVA:  

Last night at a forum hosted by the University of Richmond, Ken Cuccinelli seemed to attempt to convince Virginians that his position on a women’s constitutional right to an abortion was decidedly more mainstream than it had been his entire career.

Despite numerous statements (including on his own 2002 campaign website) that he opposes abortion even in the cases of rape and incest, Cuccinelli made this statement last night in support, not only of the right for a woman to make her own decisions in that situation, but for public funding through Medicaid:

CUCCINELLI: “You wouldn’t know that looking at my opponents TV ads and he attacks on abortion as well and the one issue you deal with every year as governor in that area is Medicaid funding is public financing of abortion comes up in every budget every year. And my opponent has put no limits on the use of your taxpayer dollars for that. I’ve said that we’ll do that in the case of rape incest or life of the mother, but that’s it.”

This morning the Washington Post is reporting that Cuccinelli sought to retract those statements:

“His campaign said he was merely stating what abortions Medicaid funds under existing law, not voicing his personal support for abortions in cases of rape or incest.”

This is a very simple question for Ken Cuccinelli to answer: Has he changed his position on when it should be legal for a woman to make her own decisions about her health care?

Or did he get caught in a cynical attempt to mislead Virginians about his anti-women’s health record and have to admit that his position remains just as extreme as it has always been? 

The Freak Show for Ken Cuccinelli Continues: Mike Huckabee Comes to Town!

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Just when you think there aren’t any more extremist freaks left to campaign for Ken Cuccinelli – Mark Levin, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, the Duggars, etc. – another one pops up. Now, it’s Mike Huckabee. Why do I call Mike Huckabee an extremist freak? Let us count the ways.

*”Mike Huckabee is strongly opposed to abortion, including in cases of rape or incest. He has stated that abortion should be legal only when the life of the mother is at risk. He believes that it would ‘most certainly’ be a good day for America if Roe v. Wade were repealed...He stated the Supreme Court ruling, Roe v Wade, had created a ‘holocaust of liberalized abortion.'”

*”Huckabee has said that embryonic stem cell research creates life only to end a life.”

*”Huckabee has voiced his support for self-defense and the Castle Doctrine, and has generally taken an anti-gun control stance.”

*”Huckabee stated in 1992, ‘I feel homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk’…Huckabee said that legalizing same-sex marriage would ‘be like saying, well, there are a lot of people who like to use drugs so let’s go ahead and accommodate those who want to use drugs. There are some people who believe in incest, so we should accommodate them. There are people who believe in polygamy, should we accommodate them?’

*”Huckabee has voiced his support of intelligent design and he has stated that he does not accept the validity of Darwin’s theory of evolution.”

*Huckabee has also statedcomparing his weight loss to the experience of a concentration camp, for which the National Jewish Democratic Council chastised Huckabee;” “joking about suicide while speaking of fundraising efforts by himself and his opponents in the Republican primaries, for which he was criticized by various suicide awareness groups;” and in 2012 provoking “controversy by claiming that the Newtown shooting was because ‘we systematically removed God from our schools.'” Oh, and he also “compare[d] Muslims to ‘uncorked animals’ because Islam “promotes the most murderous mayhem’.”

*Last but not least, Huckabee is climate science denier, for instance falsely (and bizarrely) claiming that “[t]he volcano that erupted over in Northern Europe actually poured more CO2 into the air in that single act of nature than all of humans have in something like the past 100 years.”

In sum, Mike Huckabee is a right-wing extremist and stark-raving mad. Which, come to think of it, means he will get along superbly well with Ken Cuccinelli, E.W. Jackson and Mark Obenshain. Party on, boys!

Consequences of a credit default

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Paul Krigman had a downbeat if excellent analysis of what to expect in today’s New York Times.

What the professor did not tell us–because there is no model for it–is what we can do to prepare.

I’m an ordinary Jane, and because of a lifetime of fiscal prudence which ought to make me a Republican, I am appalled by the ignorance of the GOP in matters of money.

My husband and I are federal retirees. I assume if the country defaults, our pensions will be delayed. The Federal Employees Health Benefits program  will default in paying its share to my health insurance company (I’d be in default as well because my premium is paid out of my pension, which won’t be paid), so my health insurance will stop. Since so many businesses will fail, they’ll do the same, and the insurance industry will fail

I can last a while, but with the market in chaos  won’t be able to access the money in my checking accounts, because the banks will fail, and no one from the government will be on the job to reopen them.

Nor will I be able to cash in my triple AAA rated State of Virginia and Virginia city municipality bonds, because they’ll be on default as well. I bought them because they were safe, conservative and I wanted to invest in the infrastructure of the state where I lived.  Instead of squirreling away my money in some Cayman’s Island account.

The state of Virginia is already wobbling under the effects of the government shut down, which has thrown 175,000 federally employed Virginians out of work.  

Dear 1-percenters :  news flash. When the US government goes down we’ll take the planet with us, and your money will be worth precisely zip.

The list of cascading consequences is endless and real.

I suspect the Glen Becks and Goldmines of and their low information adherents of the right wing are chortling because they own gold. Well, grab a clue: you paid twice what it was worth when you bought it. In a world wide catastrophe the value will drop like a rock, because no one will have the cash to buy it from you. Last time I checked, you can’t burn it to keep your family warm. Or eat it.

When should we expect an undetected, widely disseminated and learhal outbreak of bubonic plagued?