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Important Special Elections Next Tuesday, Then Virginia General Assembly Convenes Next Wednesday for Youngkin’s FINAL Session as Governor

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With 2025 now here, it also will shortly be time for the start of the 2025 Virginia General Assembly session – convening one week from today, on January 8. One day before that, next Tuesday (January 7) to be exact, don’t forget the special elections for SD10 (Democrat Jack Trammell vs. Republican Luther Cifers), SD32 (Democrat Kannan Srinivasan vs. Republican Tumay Harding) and HD26 (Democrat JJ Singh vs. Republican Ram Venkatachalam), which will determine which party controls the State Senate and House of Delegates.

As I wrote in my “25 for 2025” post on December 25, one big question is how several proposed constitutional amendments –   HJ1 (“a constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom in Virginia”), HJ2 (Right to vote – restoration of rights for ex-felons) and HJ9 (Marriage equality) – fare. More broadly, it will be interesting to see how the 2025 Virginia General Assembly session – Youngkin’s final one as governor, thank goodness – plays out (e.g., will Youngkin continue to veto excellent legislation just because it’s not far right/MAGA?). And, of course, we’ll see how chaos and extremism in Washington, DC, with Trump back in charge, plays out here in Virginia. Should be interesting – even if only in the “ancient Chinese curse” sense of “may you live in interesting times.”

With that, check out the following from VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, which goes into further detail on the proposed constitutional amendments on voting rights, marriage equality and reproductive freedom. Also, see Sen. Surovell’s “sneak peak” at his legislative agenda, which covers a wide variety of topics, including a bill to “[a]llow Fairfax County to authorize a referendum on casino gaming in Tysons Corner”; a study on “aligning federal and state elections to save taxpayer funds and increase turnout”; and improving “incentives to install heating and cooling systems in Virginia powered by Geothermal energy.”

By the way, make sure you bookmark the Legislative Information System website, for information on legislation, meetings, minutes, video, etc. It’s really an invaluable source of information if you want to follow what’s going on in the Virginia legislature.

“DOGE” is a Lie and a Crypto Ad

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by Kindler

Like every noteworthy con man, Donald is entrepreneurial only when it comes to creating new ways to lie and cheat others. So here’s a new twist – why not create an initiative with a name that completely misleads people about what that initiative actually is?

Which brings us to the SO-CALLED “Department of Government Efficiency” or “DOGE.” I am pleading with you not only to NOT use these names but also to call out the media or social media influencers every time they do. And here’s why:

Probably most people reading this know that no president – much less a mere president-elect with zero constitutional powers at the moment – can simply create a new government agency by snapping his fingers. The Congressional Research Service has made clear that the power to create new federal departments is vested in Congress, not the White House. And that makes sense, since a real agency needs actual statutory authority to define and limit its mission as well as a budget to carry it out.

Yet if a poll were conducted tomorrow asking if “DOGE” is a government agency, I’m willing to bet that a large percentage of the respondents, and a majority of Republicans, would say “yes”. Nor could I blame them for doing so, since the answer appears to be embedded in the question itself, as in the old trick question, “Who’s buried in Grant’s Tomb?” Of course something called “Department of” must be a Department of Something!

Hence you see Donald’s ingenuity when it comes to dishonesty. But there’s another stinky wrinkle here, which is Elon Musk’s blatant conflict of interest. The Musk-Ramaswamy task force was quite clearly named in order to create this acronym, which happens to take the name of the cryptocurrency “Dogecoin.”

The history of this cryptocurrency is way too stupid to get into here, but the important thing to understand is that Musk has a history with it – to the point that he was sued for hundred of millions of dollars by Dogecoin investors for allegations of market manipulation. It seems pretty obvious that he came up with the dumb commission name in order to get the dumb acronym, but contrary to some press coverage, this is not a “joke” any more than Trump University was. Nah, it’s yet another money-making scam.

Dogecoin value spiked after Trump announced the commission, just as it has done multiple times over the years after Musk has brought attention to it, leading to the allegations (which he recently dodged in court) above. And Musk keeps getting richer off these slimy little tricks.

So, whenever this unofficial commission is referred to by the D word, both the lie and the market scam get normalized, legitimized and advanced. I’m sure that the media will point to its ground rules that they employ the words that the politicians behind them use, but once again, you can’t treat shysters who refuse to play by any rules the same way you treat decent people who respect the law, the truth and basic social norms.

So, call it the “Musk-Ramaswamy Task Force” or the “Muskaswamy Mafia” or the “Billionaire Beavis and Butthead Brigade”, but please don’t spread their self-serving deceptions. Language to these power-mad narcissists is just another tool of control – let’s piss them off and ruin their little scheme by refusing to play the game.

Please check out my Substack and subscribe for free.

New Year’s Day 2025 News: “Russia and Ukraine End Five Decades of Gas Transit to Europe”; “Musk Assumes New X Identity Linked to White Supremacists”; “10 killed, 30 injured after vehicle drives into New Orleans crowd”; Spanberger “honored to serve [VA07]”

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by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Wednesday, January 1, 2025 – happy New Year’s (with the caveat that 2025 is likely going to be…uh…”interesting,” in the “Chinese curse” sense of “may you live in interesting times”)!

Video: Former Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-VA05) Says He’s Formed an “Exploratory Committee to Run for Statewide Office,” Possibly Lt. Governor

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Very interesting: yesterday, on Bloomberg TV, former Rep. Denver Riggleman (R-VA05) – who in 2024 opposed Donald Trump and endorsed Kamala Harris for president, Sen. Tim Kaine for reelection, and Eugene Vindman (D) for VA07 – announced that he has formed an “exploratory committee to run for statewide office.” According to Riggleman:

“I think I would rather try to change the dynamic of the two-party system…you know, I ran as a Republican. I got to be behind the door with Trump, I was Republicans for Harris. And the things that I saw…on either side, which…actually frighten me based on special interests, it always has, when I got into politics, not till the age of about 46, 47.

So, yeah…I have a lot of…fiduciary responsibilities for my companies. But that’s why we started an exploratory committee, because I think there needs to be somebody who’s willing to drag the axe and tell the truth regardless if there’s an R or D behind people’s names. And that’s why we’re looking at, there’s a lot of people who’ve have asked me, they don’t have to force me, nobody’s going to force me to do anything. But it was interesting to see the amount of support I had just for an exploratory committee.

[Question: “Lieutenant Governor?”] Well, maybe that or, you know, statewide office. [Question: “Could you run the state of Virginia?”] I don’t know if I could with, that’s why we’re looking at conflicts of interest and stuff like that. But Lieutenant Governor is absolutely a possibility. [Question: “You would not be running a Republican, though?]” No. I’ll be running as Denver F’ing Riggleman.” 

Note that it’s VERY hard to win statewide office in Virginia as an independent candidate (can anyone remember the last time someone did this successfully? Henry Howell for Lt. Governor in 1971, I guess). And if I had to put money on it, I’d guess that the person elected as Virginia’s next Lt. Governor will be either the Democratic or Republican nominee. But a Denver Riggleman independent candidacy, whether for Lt. Governor or Governor, would certainly be fascinating to watch – entertaining for sure – and could change the dynamics of the 2025 campaign, if nothing else. Stay tuned! (Also, we’ll see if Bob Good or Amanda Chase runs for statewide office, whether as Republicans or Independents…)

P.S. “Hat tip” to former Del. Chris Saxman (R) on this story.

Video: Sen. Tim Kaine’s 2024 Wrap-Up Video “celebrate[s] some of what we’ve been able to accomplish together.”

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From Sen. Tim Kaine, who had a very productive and successful year for Virginia and for himself, including reelection by an impressive 9 points. Also, something Sen. Kaine doesn’t mention here was his hilarious appearance on Saturday Night Live – if you haven’t watched it yet, do yourself a favor and do so right now, you’ll definitely enjoy it!

Hey, everybody, Senator Tim Kaine here.

It’s hard to believe 2024 is almost over. As I reflect on the past year, I want to take some time to celebrate some of what we’ve been able to accomplish together.

This year, I was able to pass several bills through both chambers of Congress including:

The BOLD Act to help combat Alzheimer’s Disease;

The Forgotten Heroes of the Holocaust Congressional Gold Medal Act, honoring diplomats who helped save Jewish people during WWII and the Holocaust;

The BRIDGE for Workers Act to help more Americans find good-paying jobs;

And—alongside Congresswoman Jennifer Wexton—the National Plan to End Parkinson’s Act to help address Parkinson’s Disease.

In 2024, we also had historic investments come to Virginia thanks to legislation I’ve helped pass, including:

A $275 million investment in Micron’s Manassas microchip processing facility, which will create over 1,000 jobs;

A $1.35 billion investment from Microporous LLC to build a new manufacturing facility, which will create thousands of jobs in Southside in the Danville region; 

$380 million in federal funding for the Port of Virginia so it can become carbon-neutral by 2040; 

A $681 million investment from LS GreenLink to build a state-of-the-art manufacturing facility, creating hundreds of jobs in Chesapeake; 

A new Topsoe manufacturing facility, expected to bring more than $400 million in investments and create at least 150 new jobs in Chesterfield County; 

Over $154 million in federal funding for affordable housing across the Commonwealth.  

I’m proud that I was also able to successfully advocate for steps the Biden-Harris Administration took to make our country healthier and safer, including: 

The FDA issuing final guidance to raise the tobacco age to 21, based on a bill that I authored with Senator McConnell a few years ago; 

Expanded coverage of IVF and other fertility services for federal workers; 

The Department of Labor implementing new standards to limit miner’s exposure to silica dust;

And the closure of the gun show loophole, enhancing gun safety all across this country.

I’m proud of everything we’ve been able to accomplish this year, but I know that there’s still so much more work to do.

I hope you have a wonderful holiday season.

I look forward to building on this year’s progress, traveling around Virginia, showing up for you, listening to you, and then standing up for you in the years ahead.

See you on the road in 2025.

VA Del. Michael Jones (D-Richmond) on Red Onion State Prison Visit: “there is forthcoming information that will be released within the next few days that I found very disturbing and disheartening”

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From Del. Mike Jones (D-Richmond):

Statement by Delegate Michael Jones on Red Onion State Prison Visit

Richmond, VA — On December 30, 2024, I visited the Red Onion State Prison in response to urgent recent events, particularly the acts of self-immolation that occurred in the past months. This visit aimed to assess the conditions at the facility firsthand and recognize the pressing need for immediate action.

Upon arrival, I was granted immediate access to the facility, which allowed me to engage in direct conversations with several incarcerated individuals, many of whom hail from Richmond, particularly my district. These interactions provided invaluable insights into the daily realities within Red Onion State Prison.

During my visit, I received numerous unsolicited complaints covering a wide range of issues:

 Food Quality and Quantity: Many expressed concerns about the quality and portion sizes of meals provided were raised.

Educational and Vocational Opportunities: There is a significant lack of inmate development and rehabilitation programs.

Medical Treatment: Numerous individuals questioned the adequacy and timeliness of medical care were frequently questioned.

Racism and Abuse: Recurring complaints about racism and abuse perpetrated by correctional officers were brought to my attention.

Use of Canines: As a dog owner myself, I was concerned about the behavior of one of the canines present during the trip. Then, one man showed me injuries from being attacked and bitten by a DOC canine.

Transfer Process: It is essential to reevaluate how individuals are transferred to Red Onion. Several persons have complained about the process, including concerns about the point system. Additionally, a gentleman I spoke to expressed frustration with the appellate process that led to his transfer, claiming he was wrongfully accused of participating in a protest at another facility.

Facility Infrastructure and Resources: A glaring observation was the significant lack of technology that could enhance communication and educational opportunities within the facility. This technological deficit severely hinders rehabilitation efforts.

Medical Care Concerns: Reports indicated inadequate medical care or delays in medical attention for serious injuries, including burns. Some men claimed to have waited days for necessary treatment that could not be provided within the facility.

However, what impacted me the most were the self-immolation incidents. Alarmingly, I spoke with two individuals who had resorted to self-immolation as a deliberate act of protest against their treatment and a desperate attempt to be heard by authorities. In addition to this, there is forthcoming information that will be released within the next few days that I found very disturbing and disheartening.

Action Steps and Recommendations:

VLBC Involvement: I strongly urge the members of the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus (VLBC) to make this one of our priorities and to visit the facility continually. I recommend conducting unannounced visits to truly get a sense of what is happening. The staff was very open and allowed me to see whatever I wished, which is positive.

Public Safety Committee: Additionally, members of the Public Safety Committee should conduct their own independent visits to gain firsthand knowledge of the conditions. I’m happy to share with them any insights I gained from my experience and to provide any assistance they may need.

Immediate Investigation: There needs to be an immediate and thorough investigation into the facility’s practices and conditions. Positions in the Office of the State Inspector General need to be filled, as discussed at the House of Delegates’ Public Safety Committee meeting this month.

Implement Restorative Housing Reform: In our last General Assembly session, VLBC Chair, Senator Lamont Bagby, patroned SB 719, a bill to address Restorative Housing and Isolated Confinement. Although it passed both Houses, it was vetoed by Governor Youngkin. This issue
should be readdressed in the next session and the legislation should be reintroduced.

Rehabilitation Focus: We must actively explore ways to better prepare incarcerated individuals at Red Onion for their eventual release and reintegration into their communities. Staff shared the positive impact education has on recidivism. DOC should implement methods to expand and improve educational opportunities within the prison. Consider purchasing tablets and other technology to facilitate learning and allow staff to enhance learning.

Food Quality Improvement: The legislature needs to assess current food options, increase funding for better-quality meals and reassess quantity. It should also explore the possibility of providing more fresh food options over frozen ones.

Community Connection: As a Delegate representing Southside Richmond, one of my main concerns is the impact places like Red Onion have on my community. Many of the men I spoke with on my visit were from Richmond (several from my District) and had dropped out of school at an early age. The need for community connections and support for these individuals is paramount.

To that end, we (Richmond) must:
•Provide current Richmond Public Schools students with necessary wrap-around services.
• Work to truly close the school-to-prison pipeline.
• Identify at-risk students early and support them to graduate and acquire valuable trade skills.

My visit to Red Onion State Prison revealed only a fraction of the facility’s multitude of challenges. It is abundantly clear that significant reforms and immediate action are necessary to address the myriad of concerns raised. As elected officials, it is our duty to ensure that even
those in our correctional facilities are treated with dignity and provided with opportunities for rehabilitation. After all, they are our constituents.

I am committed to working tirelessly to implement these recommendations and to continuing to monitor the situation at Red Onion State Prison.

Glenn Youngkin Continued to Fail as Governor in 2024: Here Are 11 of His Biggest Failures (the Caps/Wizards arena deal, numerous bad vetoes, not becoming Trump’s VP, etc.)

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By almost any metric, Glenn Youngkin has been a failure as governor of Virginia – and as a politician. Unless, that is, you consider NOT working with the legislature to get laws passed, vetoing a bunch of great legislation, endorsing/campaigning for extreme candidates (Kari Lake, Tudor Dixon, Paul LePage, Hung Cao, Yesli Vega, etc, etc.) and watching as many of them lost, making major announcements that were either absurd or went nowhere, not getting picked as Trump’s running mate or as a member of Trump’s upcoming administration despite kissing Trump’s butt relentlessly, etc. as being a successful governor. Not.

Anyway, here are just a few of Youngkin’s biggest policy and political failures in 2024.

  1. Despite relentlessly kissing up to Trump, in the end Trump went with JD Vance and NOT Glenn Youngkin for his running mate. And, at least to date, Youngkin hasn’t even been picked for a position in the next Trump administration. So Youngkin sold his soul for…???
  2. Despite campaigning for Trump, and despite Virginia Republicans constantly claiming that Virginia was “in play,” in the end Virginia went by 6 points to Kamala Harris – similar to Obama’s 6-point win in 2008, Clinton’s 5-point win in 2016, etc.
  3. Of course, it needs to be said that endorsing Trump was a massive moral abdication by Youngkin, wildly irresponsible and disgraceful. That’s compounded by the relentless stream of lies that Youngkin spewed on right-wing media about Trump, Biden, etc. Appalling.
  4. Youngkin’s vetoes – for absolutely no good reason – of legislation that would have raised the minimum wage to $13.50/hour, created a retail cannabis market, regulate untraceable “ghost guns,” prohibit firearms in any facility that provides mental health or developmental services, including hospitals and ERs,” prohibit devices that convert semi-automatic firearms into fully automatic weapons, close the “boyfriend loophole” that puts “victims of sexual and domestic abuse in grave danger,” “protecting abortion providers from extradition to hostile states for providing LEGAL abortion care in VA,” etc, etc. were completely inexcusable and unforgivable.
  5. The collapse of Youngkin’s grand ambition for a new Washington Capitals/Wizards arena in Alexandria  demonstrated that Youngkin, along with his absurd campaign to trash the bipartisan budget deal as “backwards” (which it definitely wasn’t!) and threaten to veto it in part because the legislature wouldn’t go along with his arena deal, demonstrated that Youngkin  is “not very smart when it comes to politics,” thinks he’s “king,” etc.
  6. As Del. Paul Krizek said in March, regarding the failed arena deal in Alexandria, “I don’t think [Youngkin] understands the dynamics of the way the General Assembly works; he’s probably not used to having a board of directors of 140 delegates and senators…I think he’s going about this all the wrong way…from the very get-go, from the beginning…he has not been very good at…not been adroit at any kind of negotiation.”
  7. Even the Washington Post’s sycophantic, stenographic coverage of Glenn Youngkin couldn’t hide the fact that “Youngkin has struggled to translate that business acumen into political success — or even economic development success, with the demise…of his much-touted plan to bring the Washington Wizards and Capitals to Alexandria,” and that  the “plan’s failure wipes out a significant legacy-making opportunity for a novice politician who burst onto the scene in 2021 and drew national attention as a fresh Republican face.” As Virginia political analyst Robert Holsworth put it in that WaPo article, Youngkin is “a total lame duck right now,” having “shown tremendous political inexperience.”
  8. For many reasons, the Virginia League of Conservation Voters gave Youngkin a failing grade for 2024. Why? Because Youngkin’s “put polluters in charge, undermined our democracy, and taken away critical tools to protect Virginians from pollution. The end result is an environment that’s less clean and more communities left in harm’s way.” That includes “polluter appointments to the State Air Pollution Control Board and Environmental Justice Advisory Council”; “Joining the pro-fossil fuel “Governors’ Coalition for Energy Choice” and criticizing unprecedented federal investments in climate action and clean energy programs”; his “Administration’s back-door repeal of Virginia’s Advanced Clean Cars Standards”; etc.
  9. On November 20, a judge ruled that “Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s attempt to pull Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is unlawful,” given that “the only body with the authority to repeal the RGGI regulation would be the General Assembly.”
  10. Youngkin’s also hell-bent on making sure that vehicles in Virginia can emit as much pollution as possible. Also, environmental groups correctly pointed out that “the governor’s move is an illegal overreach of his powers, one that attempts to circumvent a law he finds distasteful but that his party has so far failed to undo in the legislature.” And, of course, Youngkin doesn’t mention the fact that “Federal law gives states the option of choosing either federal or California standards to limit vehicle emissions but prohibits them from crafting other legal frameworks.” Instead, Youngkin just engages in cheap demagoguery, lies and fear mongering on this – as he does on everything, pretty much.
  11. Youngkin’s announcement that nuclear fusion is supposedly coming to Virginia is simply laughable – for a bunch of reasons, including the ones discussed here.

This list could go on and on, but you get the idea. Also, note that 2024 wasn’t an isolated situation, as Youngkin’s failures this year came on top of his many serious failures in 2022 and 2023, including his absurd “tip line” to harass teachers, the total fiasco of his administration’s draft history standards document, his failure to get a 15-week abortion limit in Virginia (and the political backlash that played a major role in his party losing the 2023 elections for House of Delegates, along with their majority), etc, etc.

And yet if you listen to Youngkin’s b.s. narrative, you’d think that he basically SAVED Virginia from the supposed DISASTER he inherited when he took office, blah blah blah. Youngkin also has a tendency of taking credit (falsely) for things he had NOTHING TO DO WITH, such as the fact that the U.S. economy recovered strongly from the COVID pandemic (thanks Joe Biden and Congressional Democrats), that Virginia was flush with cash from one-time COVID relief money and a booming national economy, that Virginia was named the best state for business (again, that had nothing to do with Youngkin), etc.

In the end, Youngkin will go down in history as having among the fewest accomplishments of any Virginia governor in decades. The good news is, we’re now just over 1 year away from him not being governor anymore – hopefully EVER. And he certainly won’t ever be president, so that’s cool as well…

New Year’s Eve News: “South Korea court issues arrest warrant for impeached President Yoon” (What SHOULD Have Happened in the U.S. After 1/6/21); “2024 Is Finally Over. Now Let’s Forget That It Ever Happened.”; “Pick Your Fighter” – “The MAGA Honeymoon Is Over”

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by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, December 31, New Year’s Eve 2024. It’s been a helluva year, huh?

Question for Virginia Policymakers: “So, if new data centers are unlikely to be powered by SMRs, fusion or space solar for the next few decades, what will they be powered by?”

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Over the past few weeks in Virginia, we’ve seen the release of a major new JLARC report, a breathless press release from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (with enthusiastic quotes by numerous leading Virginia Republicans and Democrats), and a superb blog post by energy expert Ivy Main (“The data center energy crisis is now official“) on the interrelated issues of data centers – and, specifically, the rapid growth of data centers and the massive amounts of energy they are projected to consume – and how to power those data centers in an economical, environmental,  sustainable and technologically feasible way. A few highlights from the JLARC report include:

  • “Northern Virginia is the largest data center market in the world”
  • “During the presentation, commission members were visibly shocked as they learned that a 1,000-megawatt data center campus (like the one in my district) requires more electrical power than the entire output of the Lake Anna nuclear plant. If we don’t act now, our energy infrastructure, environment, and local neighborhoods will continue to bear the brunt of this unchecked growth.” – Del. Josh Thomas
  • “Building enough infrastructure to meet growing data center demand will be difficult” (that’s an understatement!)
  • Data center energy demand growth could lead to increases in transmission charges for residential customers, financial risks to utilities…
  • According to JLARC, “small modular nuclear” technology isn’t expected to start coming online until at least 2035.

And from Ivy Main’s blog post:

  • “on the threat to Virginia’s energy supply, JLARC is blunt: Building enough infrastructure to provide electricity for even just half the data centers projected for development across the state will be difficult, requiring far more generating facilities than are under development today.”
  • “As for the current policy of allowing completely unconstrained data center growth – indeed, subsidizing it as we do now with tax exemptions to the tune of nearly a billion dollars per year – JLARC notes we are headed for a tripling of the state’s electricity usage over just the next decade and a half.  Meeting that much demand, says the report, would be ‘very difficult to achieve,’ even if the state jettisoned the carbon emission limits imposed by the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA). For those of you unfamiliar with the vocabulary of bureaucrats, ‘very difficult to achieve’ is a term of art that translates roughly as, ‘This is nuts.'”
  • “Legislators tend to be optimists, and they are already betting on bright, shiny objects like SMRs, fusion, and anything else not close enough for its costs and drawbacks to be fully evident.”

The bottom line is that the growth of data centers, as well as the growth of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving *massive* demands for electricity, but to date, nobody’s really figured out where all that power is going to come from. (according to this article in the Virginia Mercury, Dominion Energy’s massive, 176-turbine offshore wind project off of Hampton Roads “will produce enough electricity to meet the needs of about 600,000 homes, or just a bit more than the energy that will be required to power a single data-center mega project that is currently being developed in Hanover County.” Wow, that is just wild. The ENTIRE offshore wind development in Virginia would only be enough to power a SINGLE massive data center? Crazy. And that raises the question, how are we EVER going to power these massive power-sucking projects? Hmmmm…

Hence, it was eyebrow-raising (to put it VERY mildly) to see Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s December 17 press release – with supportive quotes by numerous leading Virginia Democrats and Republicans, that “Commonwealth Fusion Systems, the largest private [nuclear] fusion company, will make a multi-billion dollar investment to build the world’s first grid-scale commercial fusion power plant at the James River Industrial Center in Chesterfield County, Virginia, on a site owned by Dominion Energy.” Honestly, when I first saw the press release, I was wondering if it was some sort April Fool’s-style joke, or maybe just confusing nuclear FUSION with nuclear FISSION, or…something?

But nope, it’s real – Youngkin et al actually seem to think that nuclear FUSION power is right around the corner, and that – as Youngkin breathlessly, embarrassingly put it – “This is an historic moment for Virginia and the world at large.” Except that it almost certainly is NOT either of those things. In fact, according to Scientific American, “fusion plants might be feeding power into the grid by around 2050 and then could become steadily more important to the energy economy in the second half of the century, especially post-2060.” And, according to the U.S. Department of Energy, the optimistic/aggressive case is that commercially viable nuclear fusion power MIGHT – if all goes well – start coming online in the late 2030s or 2040s. So much for nuclear fusion powering Virginia data centers for a long while to come (decades? and even then, will it be economically competitive with solar, wind, etc?).

But then why are so many Virginia politicians so enthusiastic about the prospects for nuclear fusion and/or small modular nuclear reactors (another technology that appears to be many years away from technological and economic viability)? And why are so many media outlets – pretty much all of them – taking Youngkin et al’s optimism about nuclear fusion power (and SMRs) at face value? At least two possible answers spring to mind: 1) most politicians and journalists are not, to put it politely, experts when it comes to energy in general, and nuclear power technology specifically; 2) people are desperate for a feasible, environmentaly and economically sustainable technological solution to the incredible challenge of fueling the growth of data centers and AI, particularly here in Virginia, given that “Virginia hosts the largest data center market in the world and is home to more than 35% (~150) of all known hyperscale data centers worldwide” (plus, this is growing rapidly).

The problem, of course, is that – as the saying goes –  “wishing doesn’t make it so.” So sure, it would be GREAT if we had a viable, economically competitive and environmentally sustainable solution to the challenge of powering data centers and AI. But if we’re counting on nuclear fusion and/or SMRs to actually provide that solution in the short-term, it’s not looking great at the moment. For a lot more on this topic, see this brilliant post by  Michael Liebreich, one of the world’s leading clean energy experts. According to Liebreich:

  • The most powerful tech titans in the world have been humbled by the realization that their plans for world domination could be stymied by something as prosaic as electricity – and have embarked on a land grab for whatever sources of dispatchable power they can, triggering something of a gold rush.”
  • It’s recently “dawned on everyone that the rate-limiting factor in the growth of AI was not going to be compute power, it was going to be electrical power.”
  • “Training a generative AI model requires power. A lot of power. It also requires that power to be concentrated in one location…”
  • “For the US, I expect data-center capacity will somewhat more than double by 2030, adding around 30GW, and the rest of the world will add no more than 15GW.”
  • “The challenge lies in the nature of the additional demand: it will be highly localized, and it must be available 24/7. In addition, it must be clean.”
  • “When you combine a need for large concentrated new demand for dispatchable power with extreme pressure on emissions, it is perhaps inevitable that the hyperscalers would look to nuclear power.”
  • “NuScale, once the US’s closest SMR company to commercialization, started by promising $58/MWh, but had to cancel its first projects when this was revised up to $89/MWh. But that was after taking into account $30/MWh from the Inflation Reduction Act and a $1.4 billion direct subsidy, so the real figure, at least five years before commissioning and in today’s money, is $140/MWh.” 
  • If it looks like nuclear fission might not be the answer for your multi-billion-dollar AI data center, there’s always fusion… I will be the first to celebrate if he’s right. But I find it hard not to be reminded of PG&E’s 2009 PPA for 200MW of power from space-based solar company Solaren by 2016.”
  • So, if new data centers are unlikely to be powered by SMRs, fusion or space solar for the next few decades, what will they be powered by?”
  • “In the end, the tech titans will find out that the best way to power AI data centers is in the traditional way, by building the same generating technologies as are proving most cost effective for other users, connecting them to a robust and resilient grid, and working with local communities. More, in other words, of what the best of them are already doing.”

Anyway, there you have it: according to Michael Liebreich, who knows more about this stuff than pretty much anyone (let alone any Virginia politician, lol), there’s no magic bullet – whether SMRs, nuclear fusion, dilithium crystals/warp drives (haha) or whatever else – to provide sufficient energy to power data centers and AI, let alone to power them economically and in an environmentally sustainable manner. So sure, let’s keep investing into R&D on nuclear fusion, SMRs, etc., but let’s NOT expect that these will come to fruition in a scalable, economically competitive manner, anytime soon (more likely, we’re talking the 2040s or 2050s, and even then, who knows if fusion or SMRs will be cost competitive with solar, wind, geothermal, etc.).

 

 

 

 

Monday News: “MAGA Is Already Eating Its Own. Pass the Popcorn”; The U.S. Political Media Did a *Horrible* Job Covering Jimmy Carter’s Presidency, Just as It Did with Joe Biden’s; “Jimmy Carter, who died Sunday at 100, had deep ties to Virginia”

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by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Monday, December 30.