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Monday News: “MAGA Is Already Eating Its Own. Pass the Popcorn”; The U.S. Political Media Did a *Horrible* Job Covering Jimmy Carter’s Presidency, Just as It Did with Joe Biden’s; “Jimmy Carter, who died Sunday at 100, had deep ties to Virginia”

By
lowkell
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11

by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Monday, December 30.

Sen. Mark Warner: “Jimmy Carter blazed a trail from the peanut fields of Plains, Georgia to the Navy, the Governor’s Mansion, the White House, and to a remarkable post-presidential career”

By
lowkell
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17

It’s REALLY jarring that as one of the worst, most corrupt, least ethical, nastiest, etc. individuals in the United States – Donald Trump – is about to be inaugurated as president again, after he tried to destroy our democracy the last go-around, we just lost someone – Jimmy Carter – who dedicated his entire life to DEFENDING our democracy, to trying to do what was moral/ethical, to being a good person who cared about others, to working towards making the world a better place, etc. And while Carter led a long, full, rich, productive life, it’s very sad that the last major US political development during his life was the election of someone as heinous as Trump – the antithesis of Carter in terms of ethics, morality, intelligence, humanity, you name it. Ugh.

Anyway, rest in peace to former President Jimmy Carter, who unfortunately lost Virginia 49%-48% to Gerald Ford (a VERY different/better type of Republican that Trump, Youngkin, DeSantis, etc, etc.) in 1976 (Carter narrowly won the presidency that year), then lost Virginia (and the country overall) in a landslide (53%-40%) to Ronald Reagan (a sharp move towards the right compared to Gerald Ford, but I’d still take him in a heartbeat over Trump!) in 1980. Carter then went on to lead one of the most productive, consequential POST-presidencies of anyone who’s ever held that office; truly impressive, with so much great work around the world and here in the United States on multiple fronts (e.g., see here – “served as a sort of diplomat without portfolio in various conflicts in a number of countries”; “efforts on behalf of international peace and his highly visible participation in building homes for the poor through Habitat for Humanity“; “Carter also became a prolific author, writing on a variety of topics”; etc).

Also, see below for reactions from Virginia politicians, starting with Sen. Mark Warner, who writes:

“Jimmy Carter blazed a trail from the peanut fields of Plains, Georgia to the Navy, the Governor’s Mansion, the White House, and to a remarkable post-presidential career – modeling leadership, philanthropy, and love of country every step of the way. We lost a giant. 

“Jimmy Carter gave me my first job out of law school, and I have deeply admired his service since leaving the Oval Office. His dedication to building homes through Habitat for Humanity has always brought back warm memories of my father, who also volunteered with the organization well into his eighties. Like much of the Greatest Generation, President Carter will be remembered by what he built and left behind for us – a model of service late into life, a tireless devotion to family and philanthropy, and a more peaceful world to call home.”

I’ll add more reactions as I see them.

Sunday News: “Plane crash-lands at South Korean airport, killing nearly all 181 aboard”; “Trump sides with Musk in H-1B fight”; Trump Flipped on TikTok Because of “Republican megadonor who owns a significant share of ByteDance”; “Trump’s plans pose dilemma for Virginia’s governor”

By
lowkell
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10

by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Sunday, December 29.

Youngkin’s Victory in the 2021 Virginia Election, Which Took Place Just Months After the 1/6/21 MAGA Assault on the US Capitol, Foretold a LOT About Trump’s Election…and U.S. Politics More Broadly

By
lowkell
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5

Flash back to January 6, 2021 – Ralph Northam was governor of Virginia, doing one of his routine briefings on COVID19, talking about how he was relieved to put the COVID pandemic year of 2020 behind us and “begin the new year [2021] with optimism.” Meanwhile, even as Northam briefed the press on Virginia’s progress in the COVID pandemic, all hell was breaking loose at the U.S. Capitol – just a few miles from Virginia – with thousands of angry Trump supporters (egged on by Trump himself) violently assaulting police officers, looking to maim/kill Mike Pence and Nancy Pelosi, attempting to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election, etc.

Northam’s response was to order Virginia National Guard and 200 Virginia state troopers to the U.S. Capitol to help restore order, which finally happened once reinforcements were brought in and Trump belatedly called for his shock troops to go home. As for the response of Virginia politicos, Democrats – and a few Republicans – expressed their disgust, outrage and unequivocal condemnation of what happened. As for many Republicans, in contrast, while they almost all condemned the violence, they continued to perpetuate the lies about the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election which helped fuel the insurrection in the first place. For instance:

  • Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09) tweeted that the US Capitol “should not be subject to break-ins and violence,” that “its occupiers must leave and face justice.” Great, except that Griffith himself was part of the problem, having announced on January 6, 2021 that he would ” vote to sustain objections to slates of electors submitted by states we believe clearly violated the Constitution in the presidential election of 2020.” This was total bullsh**, obviously, and also the type of unhinged rhetoric that helped fuel the anger of those who participated in the insurrection.
  • Trump’s former Virginia campaign chair, MAGA radio host John Fredericks, tweeted that “the violence we’re witnessing at the U.S. Capitol is unacceptable & wrong” and “must stop,” also that it “doesn’t speak to our movement or the 10’s of millions of #MAGA Deplorables that I know & love.” So sure, the first part is 100% correct, but the second part, about how the insurrection supposedly didn’t “speak to our movement” is not accurate at all. For instance, a poll in January 2024 found that “Two-thirds of Republicans polled said they still do not believe Joe Biden was legitimately elected, while 62% say there is solid evidence that there was widespread voter fraud in 2020.” Just as bad or worse, only 14% (!!!) of Republicans said that Trump bears a “great deal” or “good amount” of responsibility for the attack on the U.S. Capitol, with 54% actually saying Trump bears no responsibility at all (correct answer: Trump bears a HUGE AMOUNT of the responsibility!). And only 18% of Republicans said that Trump was guilty of “criminal conspiracy to defraud the United States which alleges he lied about voter fraud in an illegal effort to overturn the 2020 election” (corret answer: Trump was VERY MUCH guilty, no question about it!). So yeah, what happened on 1/6/21 very much DID speak to the MAGA movement, no question about it.
  • Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06), a far-right MAGA Republican, tweeted, “While people have a right to peaceably protest, those who breached he Capitol and assaulted Capitol Police officers should be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law…Violence is never the answer, and I condemn their actions in the strongest possible terms.” (Of course, Cline was one of the members of Congress who dishonestly/falsely denied the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election and voted against certification, so he was very much part of the problem)
  • Rep. Rob Wittman (R-VA01) wrote: “What happened on Wednesday in our nation’s Capital is a blemish on this nation and I condemn, in the strongest possible terms, the acts of violence and destruction that occurred at the Capitol building. We may disagree on policy and who we support for President, but this country is built on law and order. We must continue to stand for the great American tradition of peaceful disagreement and debate rather than anarchy and violence.” Good statement – if Wittman had stopped right there. Instead, unfortunately but tellingly, Wittman followed that with a bunch of blather – and outright lies – about how supposedly “the facts support my vote to object to the Pennsylvania electors.” Wittman also voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election, which was totally inexcusable, unjustifiable and unforgivable.
  • Rep. Bob Good (R-VA05) wrote: “The lawlessness that broke down our Capitol doors is a reminder of how sacred our duty is to uphold the rule of law.” Yes, obviously, except that Good then noted that even AFTER the insurrection (on January 7, 2021), he “continued with my objection to the submission of electors’ from six states in question (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin).” Good also blathered about how Congress should “not accept electoral submissions from states with sufficient evidence of fraud, which warrants full investigation, as well as states where legislators did not ensure the law was followed or ensure the integrity of their elections.” Insane.

In stark contrast, Virginia Democrats voted to certify the election – which, obviously, EVERY member of Congress should have done – while unequivocally condemning the violent pro-Trump insurrection and pointing out the obvious: namely, as VA Democrats’ Chair Susan Swecker wrote at the time, that:

  • “What we saw at the Capitol is the direct result of Republican elected officials undermining our democracy at every turn…The Republican Party has made their disdain for democracy very clear…It’s up to every Virginian and every American to reject the values of the Republican Party that led to a violent coup attempt…in our nation’s capital. The future of our democracy depends on it.”

Bingo – particularly that last part about how “every Virginian and every American to reject the values of the Republican Party that led to a violent coup attempt…in our nation’s capital. The future of our democracy depends on it.”

Except that this is NOT what ended up happening. In hindsight, or even at the time, there were numerous signs that U.S. democracy was on a disastrous course. For starters, unlike what we’ve seen in other countries (e.g., South Korea recently), Trump and his fellow coup plotters weren’t arrested, aggressively prosecuted, jailed, etc. Instead, most of the ringleaders of 1/6/21 never faced justice for what they did, let alone quickly – like, in the days/weeks/months after 1/6/21. Thus, Senate Republicans (thanks a LOT, Mitch McConnell!) overwhelmingly voted to let Trump off the hook yet AGAIN; the Biden administration, particularly Attorney General Merrick Garland, failed to act with the urgency that the situation merited; the U.S. justice system largely failed to hold the perpetrators accountable; etc.

And, in the end, U.S. voters mostly moved on, “memory holed” 1/6/21, and almost immediately went back to business as usual. The first serious signs of this started over the summer of 2021, with Joe Biden’s rapidly declining approval rating – in large part because of rising inflation, which was a worldwide phenomenon coming out of the COVID pandemic (supply-chain issues, recovering demand, etc.) and certainly wasn’t Biden’s fault (not that Trump supporters will EVER believe that fact), as well as the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, etc.

In terms of elections, the first REALLY big sign that we were in deep trouble came on November 2, 2021 – the first statewide election since the insurrection, which took place just 11 months earlier, right down the road from Virginia, and which if ANYONE should have remembered was Virginia voters. The result: Republican Glenn Youngkin — who boasted about how he was “honored to receive President Trump’s endorsement,” how “President Trump represents SO MUCH of why I’m running” and how “They said: This guy is like Donald Trump. I said thank you very much.” — actually won the election, albeit narrowly, over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe. A few lessons from that election for Trump’s victory in the 2024 presidential elections and for U.S. politics more broadly, include:

  • Youngkin’s campaign was based on demagoguery,  fear mongering, falsehoods/lies, xenophobia, transphobia, racism, etc, etc. For instance, Youngkin et al ranted (falsely!) about “Critical Race Theory,”  something that 99% of Virginia voters had never even heard about before, which wasn’t even taught in Virginia schools and which had no impact on anyone’s life. Yet they managed to turn “CRT” and other lies (e.g.,  see “Youngkin’s claim that McAuliffe asked the FBI to go after Virginia parents is deliberately false“; “[Youngkin’s] Claims U.S. Traditions Are Being Axed From Schools Are False“; Youngkin’s “pants-on-fire” claim that “Terry (McAuliffe) calls in his friend Joe Biden to actually put the DOJ on Virginia parents”; Youngkin’s false claim that Terry McAuliffe favors “taking the Pledge of Allegiance and the 4th of July out of the (school) curriculum”; “The Right’s Big Lie About a Sexual Assault in Virginia“; etc, etc.) into a huge issue in the 2021 gubernatorial campaign, demonstrating the power and reach of the right-wing “noise machine” (whether we’re talking about Fox “News,” right-wing talk radio, social media – particularly Twitter) and specifically its ability to make an issue out of literally ANYTHING, even if it’s complete horse manure.
    • We saw most if not all of this in Trump’s 2024 presidential election campaign, which was heavily focused on…yep, demagoguery, xenophobia, transphobia (hundreds of millions of dollars in ads by the Trump campaign stoking anti-trans and anti-immigrant sentiments).
  • For its part, the “mainstream media” in 2021 almost completely failed to call out Youngkin’s lies and demagoguery, early and often, for what it was. Instead, the “mainstream media” did its usual – false equivalence, “both sidesism,” “sanewashing,” normalization of extremism, refusal to clearly inform readers/listeners/viewers of the fact that Youngkin was LYING, stenography masquerading as journalism, etc. This culminated in a whopping three godawful WaPo front-page stories on the Virginia governor’s race on October 9, 2021, in which they – among other things – falsely claimed that Youngkin was some sort of “6 foot 5 mystery date.” Ugh.)
    • We most definitely saw the “mainstream media” fail to inform the public, fail to call out Trump’s lies and extremism, etc., in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Instead, we got relentless “both sidesism,” false equivalence, “sanewashing,” whitewashing, constant bashing of Joe Biden, relentless badmouthing of the U.S. economy (aka, the envy of the world!), etc, etc.
  • Virginia Republican voters were REALLY fired up, while Democratic voters turned out in large numbers – just not large enough to overcome near-presidential-election turnout levels by Republicans in deep-red parts of Virginia. There are a lot of misconceptions about the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election. For starters, Democrats DID turn out to vote for Terry McAuliffe, who actually got 200k more votes in 2021 than Ralph Northam got in 2017, when he won in a landslide. The problem was that Virginia *Republicans* turned out in massive, unprecedented numbers, near-presidential-election levels in some deep-red parts of Virginia, for Glenn Youngkin. Which enabled Youngkin to pull of a narrow victory of McAuliffe, with Winsome Sears and Jason Miyares winning even more narrowly over Hala Ayala and Mark Herring for LG and AG, respectively.
    • In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Kamala Harris received 75 million votes, down from Biden’s 81 million votes in 2020. That’s different than the Virginia 2021 gubernatorial election, where Terry McAuliffe got more votes than Ralph Notham four years earlier. As for Trump, he got 77 million votes in 2024, up 3 million from his 74 million votes in 2020. So, in the end, Virginia’s 2021 gubernatorial election demonstrated that there was still room to grow for the pro-Trump Republican “base” – which is what we saw in November 2024. As for Kamala Harris, if she had just held steady compared to Biden’s 2020 vote total, she would have won. But she didn’t, for a variety of reasons (mostly, Biden’s low approval ratings, media-driven “vibecession” and America’s particularly intense anti-incumbent bias), etc.
  • As noted above, the fact that Youngkin won the 2021 Virginia governor’s election – held just 11 months after the violent, pro-Trump 1/6/21 insurrection (right down the road from Virginia, with Virginia national guard and state troopers even being sent to help secure the U.S. Capitol) – should have been seen as highly ominous for what was to come in 2024 and beyond. As Virginia Democrats’ Chair Susan Swecker said after the 1/6/21 insurrection, that should have disqualified Republicans – certainly ones who supported Trump, or Trump himself! –  going forward, FOREVER. I mean, if attempting to stage a violent coup and working to destroy our democracy isn’t disqualifying, then NOTHING is in U.S. politics. And yet, 11 months later, a small majority of Virginia voters was like, sure, what the hell, let’s go with the guy who’s endorsed by Trump, who says he’s just like Trump, etc. More than anything, this should have set off red-alarm warning sirens for anyone/everyone who cares about our democracy. But it mostly didn’t, in large part because the media didn’t want to talk about that, instead heavily normalized it, etc.
    • In 2024, it wasn’t just Trump-supporting Glenn Youngkin winning the Virginia governor’s race, it was Trump himself – the guy more responsible than anyone for almost destroying our democracy – getting 77 million votes and winning the election. Crazy.
  • Before lurching hard right, Glenn Youngkin HAD BEEN a relatively normal-sounding, “moderate” business guy at the Carlyle Group. Hell, Youngkin had even praised Communist China’s “unique system,” talked about the advantages of diversity, ESG (“environmental, social and governance” principles in investing), “lowering [our] carbon footprint,” etc. Yet at the same time, while kinda/sorta keeping Trump at arm’s length from the perspective of the “mainstream media” and the general public, Youngkin in 2021 enthusiastically embraced Trump in his campaign materials aimed at Trump voters, bragging about how much like Trump he was, etc. Then, by 2024, Youngkin had morphed COMPLETELY into the MAGA/Trump extremist camp, appearing on stage for Trump’s campaign, endorsing/embracing Trump, you name it. This is a clear illustration of how Republicans  – Mitch McConnell and many others – thought they could manage Trump, benefit from Trump’s energized “base” but not have the entire party go into far-right-extremist crazytown. Except that this strategy didn’t work. At all.
    • Fast forward to 2024, and the craven, calculating “mainstream” Republican failure to reject MAGA extremism (combined with many Republicans who enthusiastically embraced MAGA extremism) has come to full fruition, with Trump’s reelection and disaster looming for the United States of America. And yes, you could see that coming in 2021, first with Senate Republicans’ refusal to convict Trump, then the pilgrimage of Republicans (e.g., Kevin McCarthy) to kiss and make up with Trump at Mar-a-Lago, then the election of Trump-endorsed Glenn Youngkin right down the road from where the 1/6/21 insurrection took place. Disturbing. (Oh, also note that Trump previously had been a member of the Reform Party, a Democrat and an independent, while not SOUNDING like the authoritarian he’s morphed into. For both Trump and Youngkin, it seems that whatever core principles they have are subservient to their own personal ambitions for money and power)
  • In the 2021 elections, Youngkin won by a narrow majority, while House of Delegates Republicans managed only a slim majority, while the State Senate remained closely divided (Democrats maintained a “blue wall” there). This somewhat foreshadowed what ended up happening in the 2024 U.S. presidential and congressional elections.
    • In November 2024, while Trump won by a fairly narrow margin (under 50% of the vote, just a few 10s of thousands of votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), US House Republicans barely squeaked by with a tiny, quite possibly unworkable, majority, while U.S. Senate Democrats hopefully have the power – with the filibuster – to block at least some of Trump’s disastrous policies. The main difference with Virginia 2021 is that the State Senate wasn’t on the ballot that year, so Democrats maintained a clear ability to block Youngkin’s policies. In contrast, Democrats (combined with independents Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, both of whom caucused with Democrats) lost several U.S. Senate seats in November 2024, so things are worse at the federal level, from a Democratic perspective, than in Virginia after the 2021 elections. Still, the results of the 2021 Virginia elections were somewhat, albeit not perfectly (e.g., US House Republicans actually LOST seats from their pre-election majority) predictive of what ended up happening in 2024…
  • Another concept that comes to mind when thinking about the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial elections – and which turned out to be predictive, at least to an extent, for the 2024 presidential election –  is “thermostatic politics”  (“After a party takes power and moves the country in a new direction, voters quickly put on the brakes. Rather than being rewarded for their successes or keeping their promises, they’re punished.”) It’s completely mindless, of course, in the sense that voters often don’t correctly attribute policy successes and failures accurately, nor do they consistently (or at all?) reward/punish parties for what they did right or wrong (for a LOT more on this topic, definitely read “Democracy for Realists” if you haven’t already!). In the Virginia 2021 elections, we could see “thermostatic politics” very much at work, in a few different ways. First off, Virginia did what it almost ALWAYS does, which is to go hard opposite of whatever party just won the White House the year earlier (e.g., in 2009, Bob McDonnell won the Virginia governor’s race by 18 points, just one year after Barack Obama had won the White House – and had won Virginia by 6 points!; in 2017, Ralph Northam won the governor’s race by 9 points, a year after Trump won the White House). Second, there was ZERO connection between policy accomplishments – specifically, the myriad of superb bills passed during the Virginia Democratic “trifecta” of 2020-2021, plus Ralph Northam’s skillful handling of the COVID pandemic, etc. In the end, instead of *rewarding* Democrats for all of that, a narrow majority of Virginia voters actually PUNISHED Democrats and rewarded Republicans (who had opposed almost all of the excellent policies passed in the “trifecta,” while also opposing efforts to minimize hospitalizations and deaths from COVID). Brilliant.
    • In the 2022 “midterms” and the 2024 presidential election, we saw all of this on a national scale, with tens of millions of voters: a) actually PUNISHING Democrats and the Biden-Harris administration for what was, without a doubt, the most effective response to post-COVID problems (e.g., inflation, supply-chain snafus) in the world; b) failing to reward Democrats for their massive, historic, legislative accomplishments (the CHIPS Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, massive infrastructure investement, the American Rescue Plan, etc, etc.) despite a tiny legislative majority; c) actually REWARDING Republicans for their obstruction, incompetence, extremism, etc. Again, all of this was foreshadowed by the 2021 Virginia governor’s election.

Bottom line: Virginia’s elections aren’t a perfect predictor of national trends, but if you think about it, the 2021 Virginia elections did a pretty damn good job of highlighting and foreshadowing what was to come in 2022 and 2024. Maybe everyone should be paying more attention to Virginia politics?

P.S. If I think of any other parallels, I’ll add them. Also, feel free to comment and let me know what I missed. Thanks.

 

 

Saturday News: “Musk calls MAGA element “contemptible fools” as virtual civil war brews”; “Steve Bannon Joins War Against Elon Musk as MAGA Implodes”; “Miiyares asks SCOTUS to uphold ‘divest or ban’ law against TikTok” While Trump Wants to “Hit Pause”

By
lowkell
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7

by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Saturday, December 28.

Ivy Main Correctly Argues That Virginia’s “Data Center Crisis Is Now Official,” and That “Betting on Bright, Shiny [and Extremely Expensive] Objects Like SMRs, Fusion,” etc. Is Highly Unlikely to Solve the Problem

By
lowkell
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1

See below for another superb piece by Ivy Main, this time on how “the data center crisis [in Virginia] is now official” – cross posted with permission from her blog, Power for the People VA. For more on the major JLARC report on data centers in Virginia, also see Highlights/Video: Major New Report on Data Centers in Virginia Finds Economic Benefits, Also Major Challenges, Particularly on Energy Supply (“Data centers are industrial facilities that are largely incompatible with residential uses”). 

*******************************

It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a politician in possession of elected office must be in want of large economic development projects.

It does not seem to matter that in the case of Virginia, this compulsion is catapulting us into a costly energy crisis that will raise utility bills for residents; that the public shows no love for this industry; and that the benefits to be gained (mostly in the form of construction jobs) will continue only as long as new projects follow one another in perpetuity until the landscape is consumed by concrete and transmission wires.

To the credit of the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), however, it has tried to sound the alarm. JLARC’s report, “Data Centers in Virginia,” released December 9, describes the challenges facing the state as a result of the massive, ongoing buildout of this astoundingly resource-intensive industry. Many of JLARC’s conclusions seem way too sanguine to me, especially around risks to regional water supplies and air pollution from diesel generators, and the policy options it offers don’t always hit the mark.

But on the threat to Virginia’s energy supply, JLARC is blunt: Building enough infrastructure to provide electricity for even just half the data centers projected for development across the state will be difficult, requiring far more generating facilities than are under development today.

As for the current policy of allowing completely unconstrained data center growth – indeed, subsidizing it as we do now with tax exemptions to the tune of nearly a billion dollars per year – JLARC notes we are headed for a tripling of the state’s electricity usage over just the next decade and a half.  Meeting that much demand, says the report, would be “very difficult to achieve,” even if the state jettisoned the carbon emission limits imposed by the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA).

For those of you unfamiliar with the vocabulary of bureaucrats, “very difficult to achieve” is a term of art that translates roughly as, “This is nuts.”

It might have been better if JLARC had employed the vernacular, because as it is, Virginia’s elected leaders will probably take “very difficult” to be a sort of heroic challenge, like beating the Russians to the moon, when what JLARC means is more like achieving lasting peace in the Middle East.

One problem is cost. The law of supply and demand dictates that a massive increase in energy demand that isn’t matched by an equally massive increase in energy supply will lead to higher prices for all customers. Yet new energy projects cost money, and under traditional ratemaking principles that also means higher rates for everyone. The result is that it will be impossible to protect residents from higher utility bills, unless changes are made to the way costs get allocated.

(Figuring out how to protect residents and other non-data center customers is currently a focus of the State Corporation Commission, which held a technical conference on data centers on December 16th. Judging by what the experts it convened had to say, the SCC has its work cut out for it.)

Even if ordinary residents could be protected, the bigger problem is that increasing the supply of energy to keep up with soaring data center demand will not be easy, fast or cheap. JLARC warns that providing enough low-cost energy requires that gas plants, solar facilities, battery projects and transmission lines all be built at a pace Virginia has never achieved before, along with onshore wind farms that have never found takers here (though that may be changing), offshore wind projects that currently lack a pathway to development, and starting ten years from now, new nuclear plants in the form of small modular reactors (SMRs) that haven’t yet achieved commercial viability.

Moreover, most of that new generation and transmission will have to overcome local opposition. On the gas side, Dominion Energy’s plans for a new plant in Chesterfield County face fierce resistance from the local community, which argues it has been burdened by fossil fuel pollution for too many years already. Why should residents suffer to benefit Big Tech?

Clean energy also struggles at the local level. Industry representatives told members of the Commission on Electric Utility Regulation (CEUR) on December 17 that more than 30 localities have effectively banned utility solar projects within their borders. Rural leaders openly take pride in their prejudice against solar. Yet legislators are squeamish about overriding local siting authority, even when counties that welcome data centers turn down the solar facilities needed to power them.

And of course, generation projects involve willing landowners. When it comes to transmission lines that are forced on property owners through eminent domain – many of which will be needed only to carry power to data centers – the public backlash is typically even greater.

Given so much local resistance to new generation and transmission, the fact that so many legislators nonetheless remain wedded to the data center buildout testifies to the ability of the human mind to compartmentalize.

For legislators who care about climate, JLARC has more bad news: Fully half the new data center growth coming to Virginia is slated to occur in the territories of rural electric cooperatives, which are largely unaffected by VCEA limits. In addition, very large customers of Dominion and APCo have their own VCEA loophole: if they meet certain requirements, they can leave their utility to buy power from competitive service providers. Thus, if Virginia is serious about decarbonization, it will have to tighten, not loosen, the VCEA.

The report comes with some caveats. JLARC used a team of consultants to model approaches to meeting the supply gaps, and a lot of assumptions go into the consultant’s report without a lot of details. The consultant group says it chose its mix of resources with a view to least cost, but it acknowledges that different assumptions would change the results. It may not have accounted for the fact that renewable energy and storage prices continue to drop; meanwhile, fossil gas prices are so volatile that the one certain  thing you can say about any price forecast is that it will be wrong. Moreover, it appears the effects of re-entering the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative were not modeled; nor were the social costs of carbon, both of which favor zero-emission sources over fossil fuel plants.

Where there are details, some beg to be questioned. Both the consultants and JLARC take for granted that a shortage of generation in Virginia can be made up by importing electricity from other states. An easy way out, sure, but it works only if other states are producing a surplus. Unless tech companies are required to secure their own carbon-free energy supply, there is no way to guarantee imports will be available. Contrary to one of JLARC’s suggestions, then, retail choice should not be curtailed. The better move is to expand shopping options for large customers, so long as the electricity they buy is zero-carbon.

Even more suspect is the idea that, in order to comply with the VCEA, all gas plants will convert to burning green hydrogen in 2045. The report might as well say, “and then a miracle occurs.” A miracle would be more likely.

However unserious, hydrogen as a placeholder for any hoped-for technology that isn’t available today demonstrates the fundamental problem confronting Virginia’s damn-the-torpedoes approach to data centers. A refusal to put constraints on the buildout means taking a leap into the unknown and hoping something will happen to save us from the consequences of our profligacy.

And sure, maybe it will work out. Legislators tend to be optimists, and they are already betting on bright, shiny objects like SMRs, fusion, and anything else not close enough for its costs and drawbacks to be fully evident. (Not that I’m immune, but personally I’m betting on advanced geothermal, which is not just bright and shiny but already here.) And hey, for all we know, artificial intelligence, the technology most culpable for today’s energy crisis, might even produce some unexpected new energy source.

Or it might not. Given that most of the data center buildout will happen in just the next five years, we might need an actual miracle.

On the flip side, maybe new technology will reduce the energy demand of data centers by orders of magnitude. That would be a fantastic outcome from the standpoint of climate, water and energy — though it would end the construction gravy train in Virginia and leave a wasteland of empty concrete warehouses and stranded energy infrastructure.

Either way, the unconstrained buildout of data centers has handed Virginia leaders a problem that is, in the parlance of JLARC, “very difficult” indeed.

 

A version of this article originally appeared in the Virginia Mercury on December 24, 2024.

Friday News: “‘Dangerous new era’: Climate change spurs disaster in 2024”; “Trump’s border plan is cruel. No one will be able to say we weren’t warned.”; “Trump’s DOGE Guy Sparks MAGA Civil War With Slam on American Culture”; Loomer vs. Musk

By
lowkell
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4

by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Friday, December 27.

After Failing to Inform Its Readers in 2021 About Who Glenn Youngkin Was, the WaPo Appears Set to Do the Same Next Year in the Winsome Sears vs. Abigail Spanberger Race

By
lowkell
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Remember back in 2021, how the Washington Post’s “journalists” covered the governor’s race (plus the LG and AG races)? For a quick refresher, see Three Front-Page WaPo Stories on the VA Governor’s Race…and They All SUCK (Hell, They Even Describe Youngkin as a “6 foot 5 Mystery Date” – WTF???) (“How much did Youngkin pay for this whitewash job?”; “What is this? A campaign ad for Youngkin, WAPO?”).More broadly, see if you can find much if any seriously probing, let alone critical, coverage of Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears or  Jason Miyares during that campaign. Instead, what the WaPo preferred to do was stenography (e.g., glorified regurgitation of press releases by Republicans), “both-sides” false equivalence, polling and “horse-race” coverage as opposed to substance, avoidance of ever informing readers how extreme Republicans have gotten, frequent cheap shots at Democrats – and stoking (or flat-out inventing) intra-Democratic divisions, etc. Unfortunately, in 2021, the atrociously bad coverage of the governor’s race by the WaPo helped elect Glenn Youngkin. And this time around, when it comes to the 2025 Virginia governor’s race, it appears they’re starting up where they left off.

Case in point: this morning, we got yet another lazy, absurd, unsupported-by-evidence, stir-up-shit-among-Democrats article about Virginia politics in the Washington Post. Why do I say this? For starters, because this is what the Washington Post ALWAYS does in its Virginia political coverage – and, to a large extent, NATIONAL political coverage as well. Looking back at WaPo Virginia reporter Laura Vozzella’s articles published in 2024, a few things jump out regarding coverage of the 2025 governor’s race…

First of all, there’s just very sparse coverage – period – with the first article of the year  about the 2025 Virginia governor’s race on September 5 (“Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears announces her candidacy for governor”), the second on November 18 (“Virginia AG Jason Miyares says he will run for reelection, not governor”), the third on December 1 (“Four centuries in, Virginia could be on track for its first female governor”), the fourth on December 13 (“Rep. Bobby Scott considers challenging Spanberger in Va. governor primary”), and the final one this morning (“Spanberger faces reckoning with left in bid for Va. governor”). That’s it for the entire year from Vozzella, with nothing more from her colleague Greg Schneider. This, by a newspaper owned by one of the richest people in the world, with unlimited resources at his disposal, and despite the fact that Virginia is very much in the WaPo’s core readership area. So weird – and telling!

Another point is that pretty much none of the the WaPo’s 2025 Virginia governor’s race coverage is focused on substance, but instead is mostly “horse-race” and “identity politics” – who announced they were/weren’t running, how Virginia “could be on track for its first female governor,” how Abigail Spanberger might face a primary challenge from Bobby Scott, and how (supposedly) “Spanberger faces reckoning with left in bid for Va. governor”) – which steer away from pointing out the obvious, that Republicans have gone far right, that Winsome Sears and Abigail Spanberger are wildly different politicians (talking about the historic nature of their candidacies, in an “identity politics” sense, seems to be the WaPo’s way of staying in its “safe space” and not informing its readers that Winsome Sears is a far-right extremist, just as they whitewashed/sanewashed Glenn Youngkin in 2021).

Another common tendency/motif in WaPo Virginia political coverage is to stoke supposed (whether they exist or not) intra-Democratic divisions, even if there’s minimal if any evidence to back up what the WaPo is trying to prove. For instance, in today’s WaPo article on Spanberger, they argue – with zero evidence presented – that Spanberger’s supposedly facing a “reckoning with left” (she is?) and that “The swing-district Democrat was on a seeming glidepath to her party’s gubernatorial nomination. Now she’s in the middle of its soul-searching” (wait, she’s “soul-searching?” I can’t wait for the evidence the WaPo presents to back up THIS claim! LOL). For instance, to the extent there’s a sizable or powerful “left” in Virginia – and that’s highly debatable at this point  – what actual evidence is there that that this “left” is hostile to Abigail Spanberger’s gubernatorial candidacy? And if there IS said evidence, you’d think the WaPo article would back up its sensationalistic headline with some actual facts. So let’s take a look at the article and see if it did any of that.

After claiming that Spanberger “suddenly faces attacks from the left” and that Spanberger’s supposed “change of fortune…reflects her party’s soul-searching in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s reelection in November,” the main “evidence” presented is…you really can’t make this up…quotes by Mark Rozell, a political science professor at  Koch brothers-funded GMU who rarely if ever has a good word for Democrats (but is quite friendly to Republicans). But regardless of what you think about Rozell, what he says is NOT evidence, just the glaringly obvious statement that a party primary is “very different” than spending three terms in Congress representing (and getting reelected in) a “purple”/highly-competitive district. As for Rozell’s main argument, it’s that “many [liberals] want to go to war, figuratively speaking, and they’re not looking for a bipartisan consensus-maker.” In fact, speaking for myself, what I think a LOT of Democrats are looking for is candidates who can WIN ELECTIONS, then get into office and get sh** done, while (obviously) pushing back against Trump’s assault on federal workers, civil liberties, voting rights, etc, etc. This really isn’t that complicated, actually, nor is it an indication of the WaPo’s overwrought, over-the-top “news” article (that really should be labeled OPINON, because that’s all it is).

Any other evidence presented to back up the WaPo’s audacious thesis? Well…nope, but the article does note that Spanberger was focused on “unnsexy, meat-and-potato fare — helping veterans tap their GI benefits to learn truck-driving, for instance, or expanding rural broadband” (note: the fact that the WaPo finds helping veterans tap their GI benefits as “unsexy” says a GREAT DEAL about the WaPo – and nothing good!). Also, the WaPo points out that Spanberger “has been ranked Virginia’s most bipartisan member of Congress five years in a row by the Lugar Center and Georgetown University’s McCourt School.” And…so??? Not sure where they’re going with this, other than that they think (hope?) that it will stir a backlash by the “left” (whoever that is exactly).

OK, anyway, still waiting for any evidence whatsoever to back up the WaPo’s hyperventilating headline. Instead, we get more editorializing by Vozzella, this time how Democrats “across the country” are supposedly “bitterly divided over whether to move right, left or some other way forward.”  So sure, BREAKING NEWS – Democrats are not a monolith, and we’re also not an authoritarian party that just follows its leaders blindly. But trying to figure out what the hell happened in the 2024 presidential election, and being unhappy about how it turned out, is NOT the same as being “bitterly divided,” nor is it a sign that Spanberger’s candidacy suddenly faces a “reckoning” or is “in the middle of its soul-searching.”

Instead, what the WaPo seems to be arguing is that a potential candidacy by Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03), who by the way is NOT a far-left figure — according to Progressive Punch, Rep. Scott is the 138th-most-progressive US House member, below  Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08)’s #58 ranking, Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04)’s #79 ranking, Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-VA10)’s #129 ranking, and just slightly above Rep. Gerry Connolly’s #147 ranking. For her part, Spanberger ranks #188, which certainly puts her towards the lower end of the progressive scale among Democrats in the U.S. House, but still well within the Democratic mainstream — is reflective of bitter divisions, major opposition by the “left” to Spanberger’s candidacy, etc.

In fact, the only evidence presented in the WaPo article to back up its claims is that Rep. Bobby Scott *might* be seriously considering a run for governor, and that there have been grumblings of discontent with Spanberger by State Sen. Louise Lucas (who “did not respond to requests for comment”), apparently over issues related to party politics (according to this article, “Lucas said her concerns with Spanberger have been building for several years. Those concerns are rooted in, among other things, the candidate’s opposition to Lucas’ reelection to a top post in the state Democratic Party responsible for enlisting minority voters. Spanberger backed a former Arlington County Democratic leader.”) and relationships (“Spanberger, perhaps prematurely…focus[ed] on the challenge of governing rather than forging relationships with experienced lawmakers”), but not really about ideology (although yes, Spanberger DID oppose Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, and also criticized “some of the House’s younger, progressive Democrats, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York”).

The bottom line is that this WaPo article, like many of its article about Virginia politics, seem to do things in the opposite direction of how they SHOULD be done: 1) they decide on the narrative they want to push; 2) they attempt to shoehorn whatever facts, recent developments, people they can get juicy quotes from, etc. into whatever that narrative happens to be (often, stoking intra-Democratic divisions or creating them out of whole cloth).  Is that real journalism? Definitely not. Is that opinion? Definitely yes. When combined with the almost-complete unwillingness to call out the Republican Party’s far-right lurch, is it biased against Democrats? No doubt about it. And finally, put all this in context of the WaPo’s owner – who nixed the paper’s endorsement of Kamala Harris  – and, as Politico calls it, “The Rupert Murdoch-ization of the Washingon Post,” and it’s very hard to conlude anything other than that the WaPo is going to do whatever it can in 2025 to boost Winsome Sears and take shots at Abigail Spanberger. Just be aware of that as you read that paper, or choose NOT to read that paper, and as you decide whether you want to continue subscribing as well.

 

Thursday News: Trump’s Unhinged, Grievance-Filled Christmas Message; “Trump Trolls Canada With NHL Legend as ‘Governor’ Idea”; “The median voter ignores real news to consume endless disinformation”; Apathy, Exhaustion Threaten “our capacity to slow down and eventually defeat Trumpism”

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lowkell
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by Lowell

Here are a few international, national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Thursday, December 26.

25 for 2025: Here Are 25 Things to Keep an Eye On as Virginia Heads Into 2025

By
lowkell
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See below for a list of 25 things to keep an eye on as Virginia heads into 2025. Of course, this list is NOT exhaustive, so feel free to add your suggestions, in the comments section. Thanks, and happy holidays!

  1. How will Glenn Youngkin govern – MAGA all the way? relatively sane/reasonable? – in his final year (thank god!) in office? After nearly three years of Glenn Youngkin proving he’s most definitely NOT a “moderate” (as the WaPo and others would have had you believe, falsely, back in 2021, 2022, etc.), and after 100% throwing in his lot with Donald Trump (although remember, back in 2021, Youngkin said he was *honored* to receive Trump’s endorsement, and even bizarrely claimed that “President Trump represents so much of why I’m running”), what will Youngkin look to do in his final year (thank god!) as governor? Will he continue to look to Trump and Trumpism as a model; or will he move back to being somewhat, at least, of the center-right, relatively pragmatic business guy he appeared to be/sounded like at the Carlyle Group? Or some other option? Based on the budget amendments he presented this week, it’s not looking particularly promising. But you’d think Youngkin might actually want to get something done in his final year in office, and he’s got a Democratic-controlled legislature to deal with, so in a rational world, you’d think he might actually try to work in a pragmatic way. Of course, even if Youngkin doesn’t accomplish anything in his final year in office, he’ll just lie – as he always does – and create a narrative out of whole cloth about how Virginia supposedly was in ruins when he became governor (FALSE!), how he totally turned it around (wildly FALSE!), etc. So most likely, he doesn’t really care about working with Democrats, because the ONLY thing he really cares about is his own political future (a run for US Senate in 2026?), and in today’s Trump GOP, that means kissing up to Trump, making sure that Trump and the MAGA “base” support you, etc.  What do you think?
  2. What will Donald Trump’s approval rating be in the fall of 2025?  When I started getting involved in Virginia politics back in 2005 (yes, 20 years ago – holy crap I’m getting old!), the polling mostly had Republican Jerry Kilgore ahead – albeit narrowly – of Tim Kaine, at least into September. In the end, though, Kaine won that race by nearly 6 points (51.7%-46.0%). So what changed? For one thing, check out then-President George W. Bush’s approval ratings, which plummeted from 49%-48% (plus 1 point) in late July to just 39%-58% (minus 19 points) by mid-October. So what changed? Two words: Hurricane. Katrina. Actually, more words than that: the Bush administration’s absolutely distastrous, botched response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina – and the ENORMOUS media coverage of that disastrous, botched response! – starting around August 31 and continuing for weeks and weeks afterwards. So in the end, perhaps unsurprisingly, Jerry Kilgore was saddled with a president of his own party who was becoming intensely unpopular, which pretty much sunk any chance he had of beating Tim Kaine. The question this fall, therefore, is what Trump’s approval rating will be. Because if it’s 39%-58% or whatever, that will NOT bode well for Winsome Sears or whoever the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee is, nor will it bode well for the rest of the VA GOP’s candidates.  Let’s hope…
  3. Will Donald Trump campaign actively in Virginia for the Republican ticket in 2025? How about JD Vance?  Obviously, if Trump’s approval rating is significantly underwater by next fall, Winsome Sears won’t *want* him to come campaign for her. But that might not stop Trump and/or Vance, regardless. As a general rule, though, and as Sears knows, having a highly unpopular president come to Virginia to campaign for her would almost certainly be a net negative – yes, firing up the MAGA base, but also firing up the *Democratic* base against her. On the other hand, if Trump is popular in Virginia by next fall – which seems highly unlikely, but you never know, I guess –  then of course Sears would want him to come campaign for her. Same thing with the rest of the Republican ticket.
  4. Will Trump actually end up firing/moving a bunch of federal employees who live in Virginia? What if anything will Youngkin say/do about this? If this happens, how badly will it harm Virginia’s economy (particularly if deportations and tariffs also happen on a large scale)? If Trump/Musk/Ramaswamy/other assorted maniacs actually follow through with their threats to get rid of a bunch of federal employees, including many who live in Virginia, what will that mean for Virginia politics? Virginia’s economy? Will it help the Virginia Democratic ticket in 2025, even as it harms Virginia’s economy, federal workers and their families, etc? Meanwhile, what will Glenn Youngkin say or do about any of this? Will he actively support Trump’s insanity? Will he stay silent? Push back at all (I know, very unlikely – Youngkin is a craven, self-promoting MAGA politician at this point)? Stay tuned.
  5. Will Virginia Democratic voters be fired up, demoralized/depressed, or what? Will Virginia Republican voters be fired up, checked out/asleep, or what?  If you look back at recent Virginia gubernatorial elections, what you’ll find is that the party that ended up winning was the one whose “base” voters were the most fired up/engaged, while the party that ended up losing was the one whose “base” voters were either demoralized/depressed or asleep. Thus, in 2009, one year after Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points, Democratic voters were pretty much asleep/complacent, while Republicans were ANGRY and FIRED UP (remember the “Tea Party”?), with Republican gubernatorial nominee demolishing Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds by 18 (!!!) points, a 24-point swing in the Republican direction from just one year earlier. And then in 2017, one year after Trump won the White House, Ralph Northam demolished Republican Ed Gillespie by 9 points, with the Democratic “resistance” organized/fired up big time. Finally, in 2021, a year after Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points, Glenn Youngkin rode presidential-level turnout in deep-red areas of Virginia to a narrow win over Terry McAuliffe, who actually got 200k more votes than Northam got four years earlier, but lost because Republican voters were MORE fired up than Democratic voters. So yeah, in the end, it’s all relative – which side is more fired up, ergo turns out in larger numbers, than the other. The question is what will happen in 2025, which could very well be a unique year (and not in a good way!) in U.S. history, given Trump’s dangerous promises to terminate/suspend the constitution, be a “dictator on day 1,”  blah blah blah. Can we even assume we’ll continue to have a democracy, free-and-fair elections, etc? Got me.
  6. Will Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) face a primary for the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial nomination from Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03) or anyone else? As of right now, I’d guess that Spanberger won’t face a primary for the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial nomination from Rep. Bobby Scott or anyone else. For 10 thoughts on a potential Spanberger vs. Scott primary – including the fact that Spanberger would have a HUGE lead in cash-on-hand and endorsements – see here.
  7. Will the usual pattern of Virginia flipping hard against the party that just won the White House continue in 2025?  See above for discussion of what happened in 2009 (Bob McDonnell won by 18 points a year after Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points and won the White House; Ralph Northam won by 9 points a year after Donald Trump won the White House; Glenn Youngkin won by 2 points a year after Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points – and won the White House). The question is, will this longstanding trend continue in 2025, given the unique political times we’re living in, the unprecedented (e.g., authoritarian, chaotic, corrupt, anti-democracy) nature of what we could be facing in the Trump presidency, etc? It’s possible, but I definitely would not ASSUME that this will be the case, just because it’s happened over and over again for many previous Virginia election cycles. Along those lines, if I were a Democratic nominee statewide or for House of Delegates, I wouldn’t take it as a given that Democrats will be fired up and that Republicans will NOT be fired up, simply because Trump will be in the White House. That certainly could be the case, and one could even argue is LIKELY to be the case, but really, who knows at this point, given how bizarre US politics have become…
  8. Who will win the Virginia governor’s race next November – and by how much?  So based on the previous point, who will win the Virginia governor’s race next November – and by how much? If historical precedent holds, you’d think that Abigail Spanberger would cruise to victory over Winsome Sears. But who knows these days, given how bizarre/FUBAR politics in this country has become. Also, I’d argue strongly that Winsome Sears is no Glenn Youngkin for a bunch of reasons, including the fact that Youngkin was super-rich, had no particular record for Democrats to take aim at and could be all thing to all people (including a credulous, irresponsible, stenographic media), etc. Also, in 2021, we were just coming out of the COVID crisis, which means Youngkin could take cheap/false shots at Ralph Northam/Democrats for supposedly closing down schools and businesses, etc. (note that Trump was president when the vast majority of COVID closures took place, and that closures happened in blue and red states alike). Plus, as already noted, in 2021, Democrats had just flipped the White House, and Biden’s approval rating was falling due to inflation (wrongly/falsely blamed on him), continuing COVID issues, the Afghanistan fiasco (that one was arguably the fault of Bush, Obama, Trump AND Biden). The other thing with Winsome Sears is that the “negative oppo” book on her must be VERY large, given how many crazy and/or extreme things she’s said and done over the years. As for Spanberger, her main challenge will be exciting the Democratic base, which could be a challenge if Democrats are demoralized, and also given that Spanberger’s political persona is “moderate” – definitely NOT a “red meat” type of politician. Bottom line: if I had to predict now, I’d think that Spanberger will end up defeating Sears by 5-10 points, but I definitely would NOT underestimate Sears or take this election for granted; Sears could win, and that would be a DISASTER for Virginia!
  9. Will far-right-extremist former VA State Sen. Amanda Chase (R) run for governor? How about soon-to-be-former Rep. Bob Good (R-VA05)? If so, who would win that? It’s probably a long shot that either Chase or Good will actually run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2025, but you never know with either of those two…er, characters. If either Good or Chase *were* to run, I doubt they’d get very far against Winsome Sears, given that Sears is very right wing herself, and also given that Sears has already been endorsed by Glenn Youngkin and numerous other Virginia Republicans. Having said that, there COULD be an opening, given some serious bad blood in the past few years between Sears and Trump, including Sears saying Trump “bailed on us,” that Trump is “sanctimonious,” that Trump ” just goes after people,” and that “I didn’t join the Trump Party, I joined the Republican Party” (in response, Trump said he “never felt good about Winsome Sears,” “always thought she was a phony,” etc. Will “bygones be bygones” in Trump world regarding Winsome Sears next year, or will they try to do to her what they did to Bob Good for his heresy? Should be interesting.
  10. Who will win the Virginia Democratic primary for Attorney General? Will any other candidates (maybe someone from Northern Virginia?) enter this race? Right now, it looks like this one’s shaping up as a two-person contest between former Del. Jay Jones and Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.  Of course, somebody else – maybe from Northern Virginia, given the dearth of NoVA candidates in the statewide Democratic races right now? – could get in but there aren’t any rumors of that at the moment. So if it’s Taylor vs. Jones, I’d say right now that Jones is the big favorite based on endorsements, money, name ID, etc. But who knows, maybe Taylor’s campaign will start to pick up steam? We’ll see.
  11. Who will win the Virginia Democratic primary for Lt. Governor? Will any other candidates enter this race?  Currently, there doesn’t appear to be a clear favorite among Democratic candidates for Lt. Governor (State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, State Sen. Aaron Rouse, Prince William School Board Chair Babur Lateef, attorney Victor Salgado). Although I’d note that in previous Virginia Democratic primaries, when there was a woman running against a man or multiple men, the woman tended to have the advantage. But other factors – money, endorsements, name ID, strength of candidacies/campaigns, etc. – matter a lot. We’ll just have to see how this one plays out, and if anyone else throws their hat in the ring.
  12. Who will run for the Virginia Republican Lt. Governor nomination and who will win? Currently, there is only one declared Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, business consultant John Curran, with several others (Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, right-wing-radio talk show host John Reid, VA GOP Chair Rich Anderson) listed as either “publicly expressed interest” or “potential” candidates. So we’ll see, but for now, the field seems wide open here. Also, we’ll see if Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears et al unite around a Republican LG candidate, or stay relatively “hands off” on this contest.
  13. Will the party that wins the governor’s race next year ALSO win the Lt. Governor and AG races, or will there be ticket splitting on a significant scale? These days, overwhelmingly Republicans and Democrats vote straight tickets – the “top of the ticket” and “downballot,” but that hasn’t always been the case. Here in Virginia, for instance, back in 2001, Mark Warner won the governor’s race by 5+ points, Tim Kaine won the Lt. Governor’s race by 2 points, but Donald McEachin got crushed by 20 points (!!!) in the Attorney General’s race. Compare that to 2021, when Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race by 2 points, Winsome Sears won the LG race by 1.5 points, and Jason Miyares won the AG race by just under 1 point (and, of course, Republicans picked up seats in the House of Delegates…not because Eileen Filler-Corn did anything wrong – quite the contrary! – but simply because Youngkin won and swept the “downballot” candidates along). So could it be possible that Spanberger wins, but either the Democratic LG or AG candidate loses?  If Spanberger wins by a wide margin, probably not. But if Spanberger only wins by a couple points, then…maybe?  Anyway, it’s something to keep an eye on, particularly in the AG race, given that Jason Miyares is the incumbent – and incumbents usually win reelection.
  14. What will happen with the Democratic Party of Virginia with Chair Susan Swecker likely stepping aside, and with Abigail Spanberger the likely gubernatorial nominee? Will there be major changes in how DPVA operates? Who will replace long-time DPVA Chair Susan Swecker, assuming the numerous rumors are correct and she steps down in February or March?  Current possible/rumored candidates for chair probabably include: Tonya James, Alexsis Rodgers, David Mills, Amanda Pohl and Lamont Bagby. Any others you’re hearing? What are you looking for in a new chair? (personally, I’d love to see someone who “gets it” on communications/media and who is excellent in general, like Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler).
  15. Will Virginia House of Delegates Democrats manage to expand their narrow majority (51-49)? How many seats will each side seriously contest?  Assuming that Abigail Spanberger defeats Winsome Sears by 5+ points, it seems VERY reasonable that Virginia House Democrats could pick up a few seats. Remember, House Democrats were at 55 seats in 2020-2021. Also, according to VPAP’s analysis, there are 42 “Strong Dem” seats, where Kamala Harris won by more than 20 points, plus another 11 seats which Harris won by 5-20 points. If House Democrats just win those, they’d get to 53 seats. Then there are also 12 seats that went for Harris or Trump by 5 points or less, so should be competitive. If Democrats can win half of those, they could be at 59 seats. Anyway, nothing’s guaranteed – and we’ll have to see how many seats each party seriously contests – but there’s absolutely the POTENTIAL for Democrats to increase their current, narrow, 51-49 majority in the Virginia House of Delegates.
  16. Will the three special elections on January 7, 2025 – two in solidly “blue” districts, one in a solidly “red” district – all go to the party that’s favored, or will there be any upsets anywhere? This past fall, the victories of State Senators Suhas Subramanyam (D-SD32) and John McGuire (R-SD10), for VA10 and VA05 respectively, led to vacancies in those two State Senate seats. Then, the Democratic nomination for SD32 was won by Del. Kannan Srinivasan (D-HD26), so there’s a vacancy there as well. All of these seats will be filled in special elections on January 7, 2025, and they’re crucial because Democrats hold only a very narrow 21-19 State Senate majority and a 51-48 House of Delegates majority. The good news for Democrats is that SD32 and HD26 are both deep-“blue” district (while SD10 is deep-“red” unfortunately), so we SHOULD be able to hold them, but of course special elections can be weird, particularly given potential for bad weather in early January, so we can’t take anything for granted. Which means that if you can vote for the Democratic nominees in these districts (Kannan Srinivasan for SD32, JJ Singh for HD26 and Jack Trammell in SD10, please do so, early if possible.
  17. Will Abigail Spanberger run more as a “moderate,” “bipartisan,” “reach-across-the-aisle” etc. candidate or will she focus more on firing up the Democratic base and defining Winsome Sears as a far-right extremist? It will be very interesting to see what the Spanberger campaign’s strategy is in the governor’s race. My guess is that she’ll continue to run as a “moderate,” “bipartisan,” “reach-across-the-aisle” candidate who will get stuff done in Richmond, and try NOT to focus on hot-button topics or “red meat” for the base (to a large extent, she’ll probably assume that Democratic “base” voters will be fired up because of the Trump administration’s extremism, insanity, etc., and that she can remain above the fray). Of course, Winsome Sears likely will try to draw Spanberger into the mud pit, while “branding” Spanberger as a far-left liberall/socialist/whatever, which obviously Spanberger is NOT. Already, Sears has started attacking Spanberger on Virginia’s so-called “Right-to-Work” (aka, anti-union) laws, with Spanberger not engaging as of yet. Once the campaign really gets going, we’ll see whether Spanberger focuses more on defining Sears as an extremist or avoids talking about Sears much at all. Should be fascinating.
  18. How racist, demagogic, fear mongering, dishonest and vicious will Attorney General Jason Miyares’ general election campaign be?  This one’s an almost-100% guarantee – whether Shannon Taylor or Jay Jones is the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, Attorney General Jason Miyares’ reelection campaign will be a combination of dishonest, racist, demagogic, fear mongering, vicious, etc. I’m expecting 24/7 “why does Jay Jones/Shannon Taylor LOVE criminals so much?” “why does Jay Jones/Shannon Taylor HATE the police and want to defund them?” blah blah blah.  The question will be how effectively the Democratic nominee is able to rebut/brush those attacks aside and turn to the offense against Miyares, whose record as Attorney General has been abysmal. And no, we can NOT count on the media to do its job and let everyone know that Miyares is LYING. In the end, it’s going to be up to Democrats to do that – and it’s essential that they do so, because if they don’t, it’s quite possible that Miyares will win, running on the usual Republican fear mongering, demagoguery, racism, lies, etc.
  19. What will be the big issues Winsome Sears will focus her campaign on? What will be her main attack lines against Abigail Spanberger? Will they be as nasty and dishonest as Youngkin’s “CRT” and other b.s. in 2021 or Trump’s anti-transgender, anti-immigrant, etc. campaign in 2024? The bottom line with Winsome Sears is that she’s a far-right extremist with very little (if anything) positive in terms of public policy to offer Virginia voters. Plus, Sears is likely to be massively outspent by Spanberger (although who knows, maybe Elon Musk or some other far-right billionaires will pour money into this race on Sears’ behalf?), and obviously Spanberger would make a FAR better governor than Sears. Anyway, expect Sears to try to tear down Spanberger, falsely paint her as some sort of far-left politician, blah blah blah. And definitely expect that Sears will do what Youngkin did in 2021 and Trump did in 2024 – fear monger about immigrants, crime, transgender kids in locker rooms, sex change operations, you name it. And again, do NOT count on the media to ever do its job and label Republican lies clearly as LIES, right in the headline. To the contrary, expect the WaPo and others to normalize/”sanewash” Sears and to relentlessly frame this race with the uninformative-but-“safe” framing about how a woman will be elected governor of Virginia for the first time. That’s great, but how about ALSO telling readers/listeners/viewers about the actual POSITIONS of the two candidates, their qualifications for the job, the crazy things (in the case of Sears) they’ve said and done in the past, etc? Or…nah? Too hard? Too scary? Yep.
  20.  What will the losing 2024 Democratic and Republican candidates for US Senate and US House do next? Will, for instance, 2024 VA GOP U.S. Senate nominee Hung Cao end up in the Trump administration? How about VA07 GOP nominee Derrick Anderson? What will VA01 and VA02 Democratic nominees Leslie Mehta and Missy Cotter Smasal do next? How about some of the Democrats (e.g., Eileen Filler-Corn, Elizabeth Guzman) and Republicans (e.g., Scott Parkinson, Bob Good, Cameron Hamilton) who ran in primaries in June 2024?
  21. Will the “mainstream media”‘s coverage of Virginia politics, particularly the governor’s race, be as pathetically bad – “both sides,” false equivalence, “sanewashing,” stenography, “access journalism,” etc. – as they were in the 2021 Virginia governor’s race, the 2024 presidential election, etc.?  Back in 2021, the political media played a large role in electing Glenn Youngkin through its relentless refusal to inform their readers/viewers/listeners of the fact that Youngkin was NOT a “moderate” or a “mystery,” but had staked out hard-right positions on the issues and proudly/happily accepted Donald Trump’s endorsement. The media in 2021 also failed, almost completely, to call out Youngkin’s torrent of flat-out lies, whether ab out “CRT” or whatever. Meanwhile, the media was busy trashing Joe Biden, driving his approval ratings down and helping elect Youngkin. Unfortunately, things haven’t gotten better over the past three years. To the contrary, as I wrote in my 2024 Political Winners and Losers list,  2024 was yet ANOTHER election cycle of weak, thin, shallow, false equivalence, “both sides-ist,” “sanewashing,” stenography, godawful “access journalism,” and/or nonexistent coverage of Virginia politics by the “mainstream media.” And when I refer to the “mainstream media,” I’m not even talking about blatantly the cesspool of social media and/or right-wing-propaganda media, like Sinclair (e.g., WJLA7 in northern Virginia), Fox “News,” far-right/MAGA talk radio, etc. – I’m talking about the WaPo (which infamously declined to endorse Kamala Harris after its owner, Jeff Bezos, ordered the editorial board not to print an already written endorsement). Also, sadly, local papers continue to decline, with many Virginia news outlets mere shells of their former selves (although there’s also been a rise in online publications such as Virginia Mercury, which have mostly been a positive force, but not really a replacement for high-quality daily local papers). Also, if you looked at the coverage of the elections from the Virginian-Pilot, Roanoke Times, Richmond Times-Dispatch, etc. leading up to election day, it was just very weak (many days, the front page of the digital/online version of those papers was like 80% sports and/or local festivals, etc. – nothing really about the stakes of the elections, let alone hard-hitting analysis or digging into Hung Cao, Jen Kiggans, Derrick Anderson, etc, etc.). Overall, pathetic job; our political media really has failed us in our moment of need, and now they’re going to be under assault by the Trump administration, which insanely considers them the “enemy of the people.” So, the question is, will things be any better in 2025? Spoiler: do NOT hold your breath, because the chances of that are minimal, sad to say, as these people are simply incorrigible and irremediable.
  22.  How will the 2025 Virginia General Assembly session play out? Will Democrats give in at all on Youngkin’s top priorities (e.g., cutting the car tax, eliminating taxes on tipped earnings, charter schools…)? Will Youngkin continue to veto a ton of great legislation? To what extent will Virginia statewide candidates, including Lt. Governor Winsome Sears, insert themselves into/play politics with the 2025 General Assembly session? The 2025 Virginia General Assembly, which starts on January 8, will be Glenn Youngkin’s last of his one-term-in-a-row-limited governorship. The question is, given that he’s kind of a “lame duck,” what pressure there will be for Democrats to give Youngkin any “wins” on his right-wing agenda? Will Youngkin approach or even break his previous record, set in 2024, for number of vetoes (201 in 2024), or will he actually decide that he wants to get something done, and that given the Democratic-controlled legislature, he really should COMPROMISE (I know, what a concept!)? Also, it will be interesting to see whether/to what extent statewide candidates, obviously including Lt. Governor Winsome Sears (who presides over the State Senate, including breaking ties) will insert themselves into/play politics with the 2025 Virginia General Assembly session. Should be interesting…
  23. How will the constitutional amendments fare in 2025? Will there be a push by any within the Democratic Party to water them down or to make them more aggressive – and how will that play out? Among the most important items  to be voted on during the 2025 Virginia General Assembly are three important constitutional amendments: on reproductive rights, same-sex marriage and voting rights. A few weeks ago, on November 13, the House Privileges and Elections Committee passed (on a party-line vote, naturally)  HJ1 (“a constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom in Virginia”), HJ2 (Right to vote – restoration of rights for ex-felons) and HJ9 (Marriage equality). Assuming these amendments pass the General Assembly this year, they will need to pass AGAIN in the 2026 Virginia General Assembly session, then be approved (or rejected) by voters in November 2026. So one question will be whether Democrats will go for relatively aggressive amendments, or whether they will tone down/water down the language at all, presumably in hopes that they’ll stand a better chance of being approved by voters in November 2026? Because, in the end, Glenn Youngkin has no power to veto these amendments, and Republicans are in the minority, so it’s really up to Democrats, internally, to decide how they want to proceed on these…
  24. Will many House of Delegates incumbents draw primaries? If so, will any of them lose?  According to Ballotpedia, “In 2024, 95% of incumbents nationwide were re-elected. Comparatively, in the 2022 general election, 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2020 general election, 93% of incumbents were successful.” So, obviously, the vast majority of incumbents get reelected. Still, it IS possible for incumbents to lose reelection, either in a primary or in the general election. Of course, to lose in a primary, an incumbent actually has to draw a primary challenger. And right now, at least, according to VPAP,  there are ZERO primary challengers for House of Delegates Republican incumbents and just two primary challengers for House of Delegates Democratic incumbents (Del. Delores McQuinn faces Alicia Atkins; Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler faces Brandon Hutchins). We’ll see if there are any more primary challenges, although note that there were very few in 2023 on the House of Delegates Democratic side, so it wouldn’t be surprising if there are very few (let alone by strong challengers) in 2025 either.
  25. To what extent, if at all, will Rep. Jen Kiggans in “purple”/competitive VA02 break with Trump, particularly when it comes to policies/bills that would hurt their districts and/or Virginia as a whole? In 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) won reelection, but only by a relatively narrow 3.8 points in her competitive, “purple,” swing district – with tons of U.S. military, federal contractors, etc.  So in 2025, assuming Trump pushes policies/legislation, in a wide variety of areas (from the climate crisis to the military to immigration to the federal workforce to…you name it, really) that would seriously harm her district, will Kiggans just roll over and do whatever she’s told to do by Elon Musk or whoever’s running that shitshow? Or will she actually demonstrate, at least occasionally, that she has a spine and/or some core principles, or that she cares more about her constituents than about her standing in MAGA world? Note that House Republicans will have a TINY majority, which means that every single House Republican member should, at least in theory, have a great deal of leverage. That includes Jen Kiggans, for sure, especially she’s in a district that was essentially a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, meaning that it’s a “majority-maker” district that Republicans can’t afford to lose? On the other hand, if Kiggans DOES buck Trump/Musk/etc., she would almost certainly open herself up to a primary from her far right. So anyway, we’ll see what she decides to do (but don’t ever count on Jen Kiggans to do the right thing politically, because so far, she’s demonstrated that she almost never will do that).
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