I’ll try to get more details on this new VA05 poll (see below), but unfortunately it’s behind the National Journal Hotline‘s strict paywall. The main takeaways?
- First of all, 43%-41% is well within the margin of error, indicating that Democratic VA05 nominee Cameron Webb absolutely has a shot against far-right-extremist Republican nominee Bob Good. So let’s take advantage of this, even if VA05 has an R+6 “PVI” (Partisan Voting Index) score from Cook Political Report.
- Second, note that Trump’s got a very slightly net positive (+3 points) approval rating in the district, which means that Joe Biden has a good shot of keeping the race within low single digits in VA05, again giving Cameron Webb a shot against the non-incumbent, far-outside-the-mainstream Bob Good.
- Third, it’s important to emphasize how bitter the VA05 GOP nomination process was, with Rep. Denver Riggleman previously having ripped “corruption” and “pay-to-play,” in his own party, and how divided the VA05 GOP is at this point.
- Fourth, note that Bob Good might not even make the November general election ballot, as he failed to file required paperwork with the State Board of Elections. We’ll see what the State Board of Elections decides, most likely on July 7 when it meets.
- Finally, note that Rep. Riggleman is NOT ruling out running as an independent, recently commenting,“Everything’s on the table…The Republican Party is broken, and someone like me needs to fix it.” Yes, you’re totally right Denver, the Republican Party *does* need you, so pleasepleaseplease run! (/snark)