25 for 2025: Here Are 25 Things to Keep an Eye On as Virginia Heads Into 2025

See below for a list of 25 things to keep an eye on as Virginia heads into 2025. Of course, this list is NOT exhaustive, so feel free to add your suggestions, in the comments section. Thanks, and happy holidays!

1. How will Glenn Youngkin govern – MAGA all the way? relatively sane/reasonable? – in his final year (thank god!) in office? After nearly three years of Glenn Youngkin proving he’s most definitely NOT a “moderate” (as the WaPo and others would have had you believe, falsely, back in 2021, 2022, etc.), and after 100% throwing in his lot with Donald Trump (although remember, back in 2021, Youngkin said he was *honored* to receive Trump’s endorsement, and even bizarrely claimed that “President Trump represents so much of why I’m running”), what will Youngkin look to do in his final year (thank god!) as governor? Will he continue to look to Trump and Trumpism as a model; or will he move back to being somewhat, at least, of the center-right, relatively pragmatic business guy he appeared to be/sounded like at the Carlyle Group? Or some other option? Based on the budget amendments he presented this week, it’s not looking particularly promising. But you’d think Youngkin might actually want to get something done in his final year in office, and he’s got a Democratic-controlled legislature to deal with, so in a rational world, you’d think he might actually try to work in a pragmatic way. Of course, even if Youngkin doesn’t accomplish anything in his final year in office, he’ll just lie – as he always does – and create a narrative out of whole cloth about how Virginia supposedly was in ruins when he became governor (FALSE!), how he totally turned it around (wildly FALSE!), etc. So most likely, he doesn’t really care about working with Democrats, because the ONLY thing he really cares about is his own political future (a run for US Senate in 2026?), and in today’s Trump GOP, that means kissing up to Trump, making sure that Trump and the MAGA “base” support you, etc.  What do you think?
2. What will Donald Trump’s approval rating be in the fall of 2025?  When I started getting involved in Virginia politics back in 2005 (yes, 20 years ago – holy crap I’m getting old!), the polling mostly had Republican Jerry Kilgore ahead – albeit narrowly – of Tim Kaine, at least into September. In the end, though, Kaine won that race by nearly 6 points (51.7%-46.0%). So what changed? For one thing, check out then-President George W. Bush’s approval ratings, which plummeted from 49%-48% (plus 1 point) in late July to just 39%-58% (minus 19 points) by mid-October. So what changed? Two words: Hurricane. Katrina. Actually, more words than that: the Bush administration’s absolutely distastrous, botched response to the devastating Hurricane Katrina – and the ENORMOUS media coverage of that disastrous, botched response! – starting around August 31 and continuing for weeks and weeks afterwards. So in the end, perhaps unsurprisingly, Jerry Kilgore was saddled with a president of his own party who was becoming intensely unpopular, which pretty much sunk any chance he had of beating Tim Kaine. The question this fall, therefore, is what Trump’s approval rating will be. Because if it’s 39%-58% or whatever, that will NOT bode well for Winsome Sears or whoever the VA GOP gubernatorial nominee is, nor will it bode well for the rest of the VA GOP’s candidates.  Let’s hope…
3. Will Donald Trump campaign actively in Virginia for the Republican ticket in 2025? How about JD Vance?  Obviously, if Trump’s approval rating is significantly underwater by next fall, Winsome Sears won’t *want* him to come campaign for her. But that might not stop Trump and/or Vance, regardless. As a general rule, though, and as Sears knows, having a highly unpopular president come to Virginia to campaign for her would almost certainly be a net negative – yes, firing up the MAGA base, but also firing up the *Democratic* base against her. On the other hand, if Trump is popular in Virginia by next fall – which seems highly unlikely, but you never know, I guess –  then of course Sears would want him to come campaign for her. Same thing with the rest of the Republican ticket.
4. Will Trump actually end up firing/moving a bunch of federal employees who live in Virginia? What if anything will Youngkin say/do about this? If this happens, how badly will it harm Virginia’s economy (particularly if deportations and tariffs also happen on a large scale)? If Trump/Musk/Ramaswamy/other assorted maniacs actually follow through with their threats to get rid of a bunch of federal employees, including many who live in Virginia, what will that mean for Virginia politics? Virginia’s economy? Will it help the Virginia Democratic ticket in 2025, even as it harms Virginia’s economy, federal workers and their families, etc? Meanwhile, what will Glenn Youngkin say or do about any of this? Will he actively support Trump’s insanity? Will he stay silent? Push back at all (I know, very unlikely – Youngkin is a craven, self-promoting MAGA politician at this point)? Stay tuned.
5. Will Virginia Democratic voters be fired up, demoralized/depressed, or what? Will Virginia Republican voters be fired up, checked out/asleep, or what?  If you look back at recent Virginia gubernatorial elections, what you’ll find is that the party that ended up winning was the one whose “base” voters were the most fired up/engaged, while the party that ended up losing was the one whose “base” voters were either demoralized/depressed or asleep. Thus, in 2009, one year after Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points, Democratic voters were pretty much asleep/complacent, while Republicans were ANGRY and FIRED UP (remember the “Tea Party”?), with Republican gubernatorial nominee demolishing Democratic nominee Creigh Deeds by 18 (!!!) points, a 24-point swing in the Republican direction from just one year earlier. And then in 2017, one year after Trump won the White House, Ralph Northam demolished Republican Ed Gillespie by 9 points, with the Democratic “resistance” organized/fired up big time. Finally, in 2021, a year after Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points, Glenn Youngkin rode presidential-level turnout in deep-red areas of Virginia to a narrow win over Terry McAuliffe, who actually got 200k more votes than Northam got four years earlier, but lost because Republican voters were MORE fired up than Democratic voters. So yeah, in the end, it’s all relative – which side is more fired up, ergo turns out in larger numbers, than the other. The question is what will happen in 2025, which could very well be a unique year (and not in a good way!) in U.S. history, given Trump’s dangerous promises to terminate/suspend the constitution, be a “dictator on day 1,”  blah blah blah. Can we even assume we’ll continue to have a democracy, free-and-fair elections, etc? Got me.
6. Will Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA07) face a primary for the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial nomination from Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03) or anyone else? As of right now, I’d guess that Spanberger won’t face a primary for the 2025 Democratic gubernatorial nomination from Rep. Bobby Scott or anyone else. For 10 thoughts on a potential Spanberger vs. Scott primary – including the fact that Spanberger would have a HUGE lead in cash-on-hand and endorsements – see here.
7. Will the usual pattern of Virginia flipping hard against the party that just won the White House continue in 2025?  See above for discussion of what happened in 2009 (Bob McDonnell won by 18 points a year after Barack Obama won Virginia by 6 points and won the White House; Ralph Northam won by 9 points a year after Donald Trump won the White House; Glenn Youngkin won by 2 points a year after Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points – and won the White House). The question is, will this longstanding trend continue in 2025, given the unique political times we’re living in, the unprecedented (e.g., authoritarian, chaotic, corrupt, anti-democracy) nature of what we could be facing in the Trump presidency, etc? It’s possible, but I definitely would not ASSUME that this will be the case, just because it’s happened over and over again for many previous Virginia election cycles. Along those lines, if I were a Democratic nominee statewide or for House of Delegates, I wouldn’t take it as a given that Democrats will be fired up and that Republicans will NOT be fired up, simply because Trump will be in the White House. That certainly could be the case, and one could even argue is LIKELY to be the case, but really, who knows at this point, given how bizarre US politics have become…
8. Who will win the Virginia governor’s race next November – and by how much?  So based on the previous point, who will win the Virginia governor’s race next November – and by how much? If historical precedent holds, you’d think that Abigail Spanberger would cruise to victory over Winsome Sears. But who knows these days, given how bizarre/FUBAR politics in this country has become. Also, I’d argue strongly that Winsome Sears is no Glenn Youngkin for a bunch of reasons, including the fact that Youngkin was super-rich, had no particular record for Democrats to take aim at and could be all thing to all people (including a credulous, irresponsible, stenographic media), etc. Also, in 2021, we were just coming out of the COVID crisis, which means Youngkin could take cheap/false shots at Ralph Northam/Democrats for supposedly closing down schools and businesses, etc. (note that Trump was president when the vast majority of COVID closures took place, and that closures happened in blue and red states alike). Plus, as already noted, in 2021, Democrats had just flipped the White House, and Biden’s approval rating was falling due to inflation (wrongly/falsely blamed on him), continuing COVID issues, the Afghanistan fiasco (that one was arguably the fault of Bush, Obama, Trump AND Biden). The other thing with Winsome Sears is that the “negative oppo” book on her must be VERY large, given how many crazy and/or extreme things she’s said and done over the years. As for Spanberger, her main challenge will be exciting the Democratic base, which could be a challenge if Democrats are demoralized, and also given that Spanberger’s political persona is “moderate” – definitely NOT a “red meat” type of politician. Bottom line: if I had to predict now, I’d think that Spanberger will end up defeating Sears by 5-10 points, but I definitely would NOT underestimate Sears or take this election for granted; Sears could win, and that would be a DISASTER for Virginia!
9. Will far-right-extremist former VA State Sen. Amanda Chase (R) run for governor? How about soon-to-be-former Rep. Bob Good (R-VA05)? If so, who would win that? It’s probably a long shot that either Chase or Good will actually run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2025, but you never know with either of those two…er, characters. If either Good or Chase *were* to run, I doubt they’d get very far against Winsome Sears, given that Sears is very right wing herself, and also given that Sears has already been endorsed by Glenn Youngkin and numerous other Virginia Republicans. Having said that, there COULD be an opening, given some serious bad blood in the past few years between Sears and Trump, including Sears saying Trump “bailed on us,” that Trump is “sanctimonious,” that Trump ” just goes after people,” and that “I didn’t join the Trump Party, I joined the Republican Party” (in response, Trump said he “never felt good about Winsome Sears,” “always thought she was a phony,” etc. Will “bygones be bygones” in Trump world regarding Winsome Sears next year, or will they try to do to her what they did to Bob Good for his heresy? Should be interesting.
10. Who will win the Virginia Democratic primary for Attorney General? Will any other candidates (maybe someone from Northern Virginia?) enter this race? Right now, it looks like this one’s shaping up as a two-person contest between former Del. Jay Jones and Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.  Of course, somebody else – maybe from Northern Virginia, given the dearth of NoVA candidates in the statewide Democratic races right now? – could get in but there aren’t any rumors of that at the moment. So if it’s Taylor vs. Jones, I’d say right now that Jones is the big favorite based on endorsements, money, name ID, etc. But who knows, maybe Taylor’s campaign will start to pick up steam? We’ll see.
11. Who will win the Virginia Democratic primary for Lt. Governor? Will any other candidates enter this race?  Currently, there doesn’t appear to be a clear favorite among Democratic candidates for Lt. Governor (State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, State Sen. Aaron Rouse, Prince William School Board Chair Babur Lateef, attorney Victor Salgado). Although I’d note that in previous Virginia Democratic primaries, when there was a woman running against a man or multiple men, the woman tended to have the advantage. But other factors – money, endorsements, name ID, strength of candidacies/campaigns, etc. – matter a lot. We’ll just have to see how this one plays out, and if anyone else throws their hat in the ring.
12. Who will run for the Virginia Republican Lt. Governor nomination and who will win? Currently, there is only one declared Republican candidate for Lt. Governor, business consultant John Curran, with several others (Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity, right-wing-radio talk show host John Reid, VA GOP Chair Rich Anderson) listed as either “publicly expressed interest” or “potential” candidates. So we’ll see, but for now, the field seems wide open here. Also, we’ll see if Glenn Youngkin, Winsome Sears et al unite around a Republican LG candidate, or stay relatively “hands off” on this contest.
13. Will the party that wins the governor’s race next year ALSO win the Lt. Governor and AG races, or will there be ticket splitting on a significant scale? These days, overwhelmingly Republicans and Democrats vote straight tickets – the “top of the ticket” and “downballot,” but that hasn’t always been the case. Here in Virginia, for instance, back in 2001, Mark Warner won the governor’s race by 5+ points, Tim Kaine won the Lt. Governor’s race by 2 points, but Donald McEachin got crushed by 20 points (!!!) in the Attorney General’s race. Compare that to 2021, when Glenn Youngkin won the governor’s race by 2 points, Winsome Sears won the LG race by 1.5 points, and Jason Miyares won the AG race by just under 1 point (and, of course, Republicans picked up seats in the House of Delegates…not because Eileen Filler-Corn did anything wrong – quite the contrary! – but simply because Youngkin won and swept the “downballot” candidates along). So could it be possible that Spanberger wins, but either the Democratic LG or AG candidate loses?  If Spanberger wins by a wide margin, probably not. But if Spanberger only wins by a couple points, then…maybe?  Anyway, it’s something to keep an eye on, particularly in the AG race, given that Jason Miyares is the incumbent – and incumbents usually win reelection.
14. What will happen with the Democratic Party of Virginia with Chair Susan Swecker likely stepping aside, and with Abigail Spanberger the likely gubernatorial nominee? Will there be major changes in how DPVA operates? Who will replace long-time DPVA Chair Susan Swecker, assuming the numerous rumors are correct and she steps down in February or March?  Current possible/rumored candidates for chair probabably include: Tonya James, Alexsis Rodgers, David Mills, Amanda Pohl and Lamont Bagby. Any others you’re hearing? What are you looking for in a new chair? (personally, I’d love to see someone who “gets it” on communications/media and who is excellent in general, like Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler).
15. Will Virginia House of Delegates Democrats manage to expand their narrow majority (51-49)? How many seats will each side seriously contest?  Assuming that Abigail Spanberger defeats Winsome Sears by 5+ points, it seems VERY reasonable that Virginia House Democrats could pick up a few seats. Remember, House Democrats were at 55 seats in 2020-2021. Also, according to VPAP’s analysis, there are 42 “Strong Dem” seats, where Kamala Harris won by more than 20 points, plus another 11 seats which Harris won by 5-20 points. If House Democrats just win those, they’d get to 53 seats. Then there are also 12 seats that went for Harris or Trump by 5 points or less, so should be competitive. If Democrats can win half of those, they could be at 59 seats. Anyway, nothing’s guaranteed – and we’ll have to see how many seats each party seriously contests – but there’s absolutely the POTENTIAL for Democrats to increase their current, narrow, 51-49 majority in the Virginia House of Delegates.
16. Will the three special elections on January 7, 2025 – two in solidly “blue” districts, one in a solidly “red” district – all go to the party that’s favored, or will there be any upsets anywhere? This past fall, the victories of State Senators Suhas Subramanyam (D-SD32) and John McGuire (R-SD10), for VA10 and VA05 respectively, led to vacancies in those two State Senate seats. Then, the Democratic nomination for SD32 was won by Del. Kannan Srinivasan (D-HD26), so there’s a vacancy there as well. All of these seats will be filled in special elections on January 7, 2025, and they’re crucial because Democrats hold only a very narrow 21-19 State Senate majority and a 51-48 House of Delegates majority. The good news for Democrats is that SD32 and HD26 are both deep-“blue” district (while SD10 is deep-“red” unfortunately), so we SHOULD be able to hold them, but of course special elections can be weird, particularly given potential for bad weather in early January, so we can’t take anything for granted. Which means that if you can vote for the Democratic nominees in these districts (Kannan Srinivasan for SD32, JJ Singh for HD26 and Jack Trammell in SD10, please do so, early if possible.
17. Will Abigail Spanberger run more as a “moderate,” “bipartisan,” “reach-across-the-aisle” etc. candidate or will she focus more on firing up the Democratic base and defining Winsome Sears as a far-right extremist? It will be very interesting to see what the Spanberger campaign’s strategy is in the governor’s race. My guess is that she’ll continue to run as a “moderate,” “bipartisan,” “reach-across-the-aisle” candidate who will get stuff done in Richmond, and try NOT to focus on hot-button topics or “red meat” for the base (to a large extent, she’ll probably assume that Democratic “base” voters will be fired up because of the Trump administration’s extremism, insanity, etc., and that she can remain above the fray). Of course, Winsome Sears likely will try to draw Spanberger into the mud pit, while “branding” Spanberger as a far-left liberall/socialist/whatever, which obviously Spanberger is NOT. Already, Sears has started attacking Spanberger on Virginia’s so-called “Right-to-Work” (aka, anti-union) laws, with Spanberger not engaging as of yet. Once the campaign really gets going, we’ll see whether Spanberger focuses more on defining Sears as an extremist or avoids talking about Sears much at all. Should be fascinating.
18. How racist, demagogic, fear mongering, dishonest and vicious will Attorney General Jason Miyares’ general election campaign be?  This one’s an almost-100% guarantee – whether Shannon Taylor or Jay Jones is the Democratic nominee for Attorney General, Attorney General Jason Miyares’ reelection campaign will be a combination of dishonest, racist, demagogic, fear mongering, vicious, etc. I’m expecting 24/7 “why does Jay Jones/Shannon Taylor LOVE criminals so much?” “why does Jay Jones/Shannon Taylor HATE the police and want to defund them?” blah blah blah.  The question will be how effectively the Democratic nominee is able to rebut/brush those attacks aside and turn to the offense against Miyares, whose record as Attorney General has been abysmal. And no, we can NOT count on the media to do its job and let everyone know that Miyares is LYING. In the end, it’s going to be up to Democrats to do that – and it’s essential that they do so, because if they don’t, it’s quite possible that Miyares will win, running on the usual Republican fear mongering, demagoguery, racism, lies, etc.
19. What will be the big issues Winsome Sears will focus her campaign on? What will be her main attack lines against Abigail Spanberger? Will they be as nasty and dishonest as Youngkin’s “CRT” and other b.s. in 2021 or Trump’s anti-transgender, anti-immigrant, etc. campaign in 2024? The bottom line with Winsome Sears is that she’s a far-right extremist with very little (if anything) positive in terms of public policy to offer Virginia voters. Plus, Sears is likely to be massively outspent by Spanberger (although who knows, maybe Elon Musk or some other far-right billionaires will pour money into this race on Sears’ behalf?), and obviously Spanberger would make a FAR better governor than Sears. Anyway, expect Sears to try to tear down Spanberger, falsely paint her as some sort of far-left politician, blah blah blah. And definitely expect that Sears will do what Youngkin did in 2021 and Trump did in 2024 – fear monger about immigrants, crime, transgender kids in locker rooms, sex change operations, you name it. And again, do NOT count on the media to ever do its job and label Republican lies clearly as LIES, right in the headline. To the contrary, expect the WaPo and others to normalize/”sanewash” Sears and to relentlessly frame this race with the uninformative-but-“safe” framing about how a woman will be elected governor of Virginia for the first time. That’s great, but how about ALSO telling readers/listeners/viewers about the actual POSITIONS of the two candidates, their qualifications for the job, the crazy things (in the case of Sears) they’ve said and done in the past, etc? Or…nah? Too hard? Too scary? Yep.
20.  What will the losing 2024 Democratic and Republican candidates for US Senate and US House do next? Will, for instance, 2024 VA GOP U.S. Senate nominee Hung Cao end up in the Trump administration? How about VA07 GOP nominee Derrick Anderson? What will VA01 and VA02 Democratic nominees Leslie Mehta and Missy Cotter Smasal do next? How about some of the Democrats (e.g., Eileen Filler-Corn, Elizabeth Guzman) and Republicans (e.g., Scott Parkinson, Bob Good, Cameron Hamilton) who ran in primaries in June 2024?
21. Will the “mainstream media”‘s coverage of Virginia politics, particularly the governor’s race, be as pathetically bad – “both sides,” false equivalence, “sanewashing,” stenography, “access journalism,” etc. – as they were in the 2021 Virginia governor’s race, the 2024 presidential election, etc.?  Back in 2021, the political media played a large role in electing Glenn Youngkin through its relentless refusal to inform their readers/viewers/listeners of the fact that Youngkin was NOT a “moderate” or a “mystery,” but had staked out hard-right positions on the issues and proudly/happily accepted Donald Trump’s endorsement. The media in 2021 also failed, almost completely, to call out Youngkin’s torrent of flat-out lies, whether ab out “CRT” or whatever. Meanwhile, the media was busy trashing Joe Biden, driving his approval ratings down and helping elect Youngkin. Unfortunately, things haven’t gotten better over the past three years. To the contrary, as I wrote in my 2024 Political Winners and Losers list,  2024 was yet ANOTHER election cycle of weak, thin, shallow, false equivalence, “both sides-ist,” “sanewashing,” stenography, godawful “access journalism,” and/or nonexistent coverage of Virginia politics by the “mainstream media.” And when I refer to the “mainstream media,” I’m not even talking about blatantly the cesspool of social media and/or right-wing-propaganda media, like Sinclair (e.g., WJLA7 in northern Virginia), Fox “News,” far-right/MAGA talk radio, etc. – I’m talking about the WaPo (which infamously declined to endorse Kamala Harris after its owner, Jeff Bezos, ordered the editorial board not to print an already written endorsement). Also, sadly, local papers continue to decline, with many Virginia news outlets mere shells of their former selves (although there’s also been a rise in online publications such as Virginia Mercury, which have mostly been a positive force, but not really a replacement for high-quality daily local papers). Also, if you looked at the coverage of the elections from the Virginian-Pilot, Roanoke Times, Richmond Times-Dispatch, etc. leading up to election day, it was just very weak (many days, the front page of the digital/online version of those papers was like 80% sports and/or local festivals, etc. – nothing really about the stakes of the elections, let alone hard-hitting analysis or digging into Hung Cao, Jen Kiggans, Derrick Anderson, etc, etc.). Overall, pathetic job; our political media really has failed us in our moment of need, and now they’re going to be under assault by the Trump administration, which insanely considers them the “enemy of the people.” So, the question is, will things be any better in 2025? Spoiler: do NOT hold your breath, because the chances of that are minimal, sad to say, as these people are simply incorrigible and irremediable.
22.  How will the 2025 Virginia General Assembly session play out? Will Democrats give in at all on Youngkin’s top priorities (e.g., cutting the car tax, eliminating taxes on tipped earnings, charter schools…)? Will Youngkin continue to veto a ton of great legislation? To what extent will Virginia statewide candidates, including Lt. Governor Winsome Sears, insert themselves into/play politics with the 2025 General Assembly session? The 2025 Virginia General Assembly, which starts on January 8, will be Glenn Youngkin’s last of his one-term-in-a-row-limited governorship. The question is, given that he’s kind of a “lame duck,” what pressure there will be for Democrats to give Youngkin any “wins” on his right-wing agenda? Will Youngkin approach or even break his previous record, set in 2024, for number of vetoes (201 in 2024), or will he actually decide that he wants to get something done, and that given the Democratic-controlled legislature, he really should COMPROMISE (I know, what a concept!)? Also, it will be interesting to see whether/to what extent statewide candidates, obviously including Lt. Governor Winsome Sears (who presides over the State Senate, including breaking ties) will insert themselves into/play politics with the 2025 Virginia General Assembly session. Should be interesting…
23. How will the constitutional amendments fare in 2025? Will there be a push by any within the Democratic Party to water them down or to make them more aggressive – and how will that play out? Among the most important items  to be voted on during the 2025 Virginia General Assembly are three important constitutional amendments: on reproductive rights, same-sex marriage and voting rights. A few weeks ago, on November 13, the House Privileges and Elections Committee passed (on a party-line vote, naturally)  HJ1 (“a constitutional amendment protecting reproductive freedom in Virginia”), HJ2 (Right to vote – restoration of rights for ex-felons) and HJ9 (Marriage equality). Assuming these amendments pass the General Assembly this year, they will need to pass AGAIN in the 2026 Virginia General Assembly session, then be approved (or rejected) by voters in November 2026. So one question will be whether Democrats will go for relatively aggressive amendments, or whether they will tone down/water down the language at all, presumably in hopes that they’ll stand a better chance of being approved by voters in November 2026? Because, in the end, Glenn Youngkin has no power to veto these amendments, and Republicans are in the minority, so it’s really up to Democrats, internally, to decide how they want to proceed on these…
24. Will many House of Delegates incumbents draw primaries? If so, will any of them lose?  According to Ballotpedia, “In 2024, 95% of incumbents nationwide were re-elected. Comparatively, in the 2022 general election, 94% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. In the 2020 general election, 93% of incumbents were successful.” So, obviously, the vast majority of incumbents get reelected. Still, it IS possible for incumbents to lose reelection, either in a primary or in the general election. Of course, to lose in a primary, an incumbent actually has to draw a primary challenger. And right now, at least, according to VPAP,  there are ZERO primary challengers for House of Delegates Republican incumbents and just two primary challengers for House of Delegates Democratic incumbents (Del. Delores McQuinn faces Alicia Atkins; Del. Kelly Convirs-Fowler faces Brandon Hutchins). We’ll see if there are any more primary challenges, although note that there were very few in 2023 on the House of Delegates Democratic side, so it wouldn’t be surprising if there are very few (let alone by strong challengers) in 2025 either.
25. To what extent, if at all, will Rep. Jen Kiggans in “purple”/competitive VA02 break with Trump, particularly when it comes to policies/bills that would hurt their districts and/or Virginia as a whole? In 2024, Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) won reelection, but only by a relatively narrow 3.8 points in her competitive, “purple,” swing district – with tons of U.S. military, federal contractors, etc.  So in 2025, assuming Trump pushes policies/legislation, in a wide variety of areas (from the climate crisis to the military to immigration to the federal workforce to…you name it, really) that would seriously harm her district, will Kiggans just roll over and do whatever she’s told to do by Elon Musk or whoever’s running that shitshow? Or will she actually demonstrate, at least occasionally, that she has a spine and/or some core principles, or that she cares more about her constituents than about her standing in MAGA world? Note that House Republicans will have a TINY majority, which means that every single House Republican member should, at least in theory, have a great deal of leverage. That includes Jen Kiggans, for sure, especially she’s in a district that was essentially a dead heat between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, meaning that it’s a “majority-maker” district that Republicans can’t afford to lose? On the other hand, if Kiggans DOES buck Trump/Musk/etc., she would almost certainly open herself up to a primary from her far right. So anyway, we’ll see what she decides to do (but don’t ever count on Jen Kiggans to do the right thing politically, because so far, she’s demonstrated that she almost never will do that).