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How is Mark Warner’s Brand Faring? Areas to Watch on Election Night to Find Out.

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( – promoted by lowkell)

Since my series on Virginia politics back in December and January I’ve given up my Virginia roots, moved to the District of Columbia, and even find myself voting in a DC election! You can take me out of Virginia, but you can’t take Virginia out of me. With Election Day just around the corner, I’m delurking to raise some questions about what we should expect from the Mark Warner victory on Tuesday … Knock on wood!

Despite my concerns about jinxing the election, a Mark Warner defeat on Election Day is the furthest thing from the realm of plausibility. Consider this trend line of polling in the Virginia Senate race tweeted earlier this week by Speaker Howell’s spokesman, Matthew Moran.

I fully expect Warner to win on Tuesday, but I think we should be prepared for a closer than expected victory. Libertarian Robert Sarvis was hoping to build on his surprisingly strong showing from 2013, but he will be lucky to hit 2% this time around. I would not be surprised by a Warner margin of victory of 5 to 6 percent, far closer than earlier polls showing him up by over 20 percent. Warner has run a positive campaign based on his personal brand, playing up bipartisan support from that other Senator Warner and reminding Southwest Virginia of his work bringing Virginia Tech into the ACC. The polls show we won’t have the same “Warner Country” that turned out for Mark almost two to one from 2008.

One of the constant themes from my Christmas series was that the Democratic Party of Virginia needs to prioritize competitive races based on the underlying Democratic lean of the districts, not idealizing the magical appeal of candidates who can supposedly swim up stream against the partisan tides that have been moving rural Southwest and Southside Virginia into the Republican column. This year could be a good test of the personal appeal of Mark Warner in Southwest Virginia versus the “War on Coal” rhetoric in Republican attack ads.  

Consider the low-turnout environment of 2014 with an electorate that is still favored to return Mark Warner to the Senate. In the same way that it is questionable to even consider districts that did not support Ralph Northam over the meltdown Tea Party candidacy of E. W. Jackson, how should we view districts that may have historically backed Democrats like Mark Warner in 2001 and 2008, but are shifting Republican even when he’s on the ticket?

Here are some areas to watch on Election Night to see how Mark Warner’s brand is faring.

9th House of Delegates District (Franklin, Henry, Patrick Counties): In 2008, this was the second best district for crossover support for Warner (the 1st was the best district). Warner won 63% of the vote, 25% ahead of Obama’s performance. When Republicans drew Ward Armstrong into the district, he put up a hell of a fight and ended up losing in 2011 by only 5 points. But in 2012, Obama dropped to 34%, down from 38%. But even that wasn’t a floor for Democratic performance. Terry lost the district with only 29% of the vote, not even Northam could win the district. This is the sort of district that believers in a rural Virginia Democrat appeal would want to contest. How Warner performs on election day should give us a good indication if this will be possible.

12th House of Delegates District (Montgomery and Giles Counties, Radford City): Just how effective will Mark Warner’s Virginia Tech ad strategy be in this Blacksburg based district? The district is well crafted (aka gerrymandered) challenge for Virginia Democrats. High turnout among the student population in presidential years makes the district look competitive, but in lower turnout years the more conservative electorate that turns out makes the district look more like the rest of Southwest Virginia. With polls showing increasing disillusion among Millennials about Obama’s agenda, what will this district look like on Tuesday?

6th House of Delegates District (Wythe, Carroll, Smyth Counties): House Democrats in 2013 were shocked when they failed to win this seat, somehow believing this deep red district was about to elect a Democrat. That was political malpractice. Watch Warner’s performance in this district to see if there’s any grounds for believing a Democratic victory would ever be possible here.

14th (Danville City; Pittsylvania and Henry Counties) & 16th (Pittsylvania and Henry Counties; Martinsville City) House of Delegates Districts: The Republican “War on Coal” may resonant in Southwest Virginia, but these Danville and Pittsylvania County district will be a testing case of just how low Warner’s brand can fall simply through association with Obama and the Democratic Party. Pittsylvania County is the bastion for Southside Republicans and will push Adams or another Pittsylvania Republican into the State Senate should Frank Ruff ever retire. The 14th District is a frustrating tale of low turnout in odd years when the African-American community is less engaged. The low turnout was a scare for Democrats in early on election night in 2013, with Terry far behind expected vote totals. And it cost Roscoe Reynolds his State Senate seat in 2011. Look to Warner’s vote total in the 14th to see how low his brand is among white Southside voters, as minority turnout will likely be lackluster.

2nd (Parts of Prince William and Stafford Counties) and 13th House (Prince William County, Manassas Park City) of Delegates Districts: These are two seats that have rapidly changing demographics. No one is more hated by progressive than the 13th District’s Bob Marshall, who represents a district that has been rapidly trending to the Democrats nationally. But in low-turnout affairs the district continues to send Sideshow Bob back to Richmond. Look to these districts to see how low Democratic turnout is in a midterm as we head into 2015. Although winning in 2013, even Terry struggled to turn out the increasingly diverse communities of Prince William County.

34th House of Delegates District (Parts of Fairfax and Loudoun Counties): There’s still time to stop Barabara Comstock from going to Congress, but the important story on election night could also be how Mark Warner performs in this affluent Northern Virginia District. Despite the great difficulties in knocking off Comstock, this is a district where statewide Democrats tend to do a better job in minimizing their dropoff from the Presidential campaign. It also has a high number of independent swing voters, like those who supported both Mitt Romney and Tim Kaine in 2012.

1st State Senate District (Newport News City; parts of James City County, Hampton City, Williamsburg City, York County, Suffolk City) and 94th House of Delegates District (Newport News City): These two Peninsula seats could feature barnburners in 2015, with State Senator John Miller a perpetually vulnerable Democrat and the 94th providing a pickup opportunity in the House of Delegates. The two districts overlap significantly and offer good synergies for getting out the vote in 2015. Democrat Monty Mason in the neighboring 93rd should also be facing a tough reelection.

10th State Senate District (Chesterfield County, part of Richmond City and Powhatan County): This is the most Democratic State Senate seat held by a Republican and represents one of the few pickup opportunities for Democrats in 2015. Retirements and primary defeats may appear to put other seats into play, but this is the seat that represents the best pickup opportunity at this time.

What predictions do you have for election night?

Virginia News Headlines: Sunday Morning

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Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Sunday, November 2.

*Climate panel: Some impacts ‘irreversible’ (“A U.N. panel of scientists warned that only an unprecedented global effort to slash emissions will prevent temperatures from crossing a threshold that could trigger dangerous disruptions worldwide.” For those who don’t get it, THIS is why climate change is by far and away the most important threat facing humanity right now.)

*The Pitiful Whimper of 2014 (There’s a lot of truth to this, for instance with regard to climate change. Given that threat – and opportunity – where are the candidates speaking with clarity and vision about a rapid transition to a clean energy economy? How many more times do we need to hear “all-of-the-above” nonsense?)

*Good for you, Kaci Hickox (Agreed. This is unscientific nonsense, hysteria, fearmongering, etc.)

*The final sprint (Under 48 hours until polls open.)

*Senate Update: Polls Point Increasingly To Republican Senate Win (Let’s hope not. Just…ugh.)

*Our view: Your choices on Tuesday (“Gillespie is a thoroughly predictable Republican vote, having shown no signs of any original thinking or creative problem-solving. If you’re an ideological conservative, of course, that’s just fine and dandy…”)

*In 2nd District, Rigell, Patrick debate dysfunction (Suzanne Patrick is right “that Rigell’s support for GOP leadership stands on the budget is part of what gridlocks Congress.”)

*Uninspiring ballot, election fatigue among reasons for low voter turnout (No matter how “exciting” or whatever, it’s important to vote.)

*Incumbent Warner pulls out all the stops as Va. Senate race tightens (Remember, in 2012, Tim Kaine beat George Allen by just 6 points, 53%-47%. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Mark Warner beat Ed Gillespie by something like that, in a tougher year politically for Democrats than 2012 and against a stronger candidate than Allen in many ways.)

*Schapiro: For Warner, there’s little reason to smile (“Warner is strong where votes are abundant, the Northern Virginia-to-Virginia Beach crescent. It’s no surprise he’s ahead with women. Unusual for a Democrat, Warner is preferred by most men. And he has a reservoir of Republican support. At least 1 in 10 Republicans say they’re voting for Warner. Maybe that will put a smile on the face of the unhappy warrior.”)

*Scott unopposed in 3rd District (Bobby Scott is great, and I strongly support his reelection, but this is an example of how gerrymandered, incumbent-protection districts hurt democracy. It’s also an example of “packing,” which a court recently ruled needs to be rectified.)

*Two challenge Wittman in 1st District (Again, thanks to gerrymandering, this is a “safe” seat. Time to go to non-partisan redistricting in Virginia and across the country.)

*Competition and fairness (“Not to take anything away from Rep. Scott, a dedicated public servant, but absence of a competitive campaign hurts residents of the 3rd District. They would be served by a spirited debate of ideas among candidates eager to win their vote.” Bingo.)

*Virginia will have at least three new members of Congress (The 7th, 8th, and 10th CDs.)

*Better choices on Tuesday’s ballot (Classic example of what I was talking about yesterday regarding newspaper endorsements. This one’s got some – the endorsement of Mark Warner, the slam of Randy Forbes as a total zero – where the reasoning makes sense, one – using the word “bipartisan” in conjunction with Scott Rigell – that completely doesn’t, etc. Total mishmash.)

*Who is best for the Seventh District? (This editorial is ridiculous – they lean towards a true right-wing extremist, Dave Brat, but seriously believe Jack Trammell could pull an upset in this safe Republican district? Alrighty…)

*An Endorsement: Mark Warner and a Record of Moderation, Centrism (Yes, vote for Mark Warner, but the “both sides,” false equivalency bull**** here is off the charts!)

*Opinion/Editorial: Too many candidates play it safe (Another mostly ridiculous editorial.)

*A father’s scars: For Va.’s Creigh Deeds, tragedy brings unending question

*D.C. area forecast: Cold winds whip today; warming up for the work week

Sign the petition: Stop NPR from gutting its climate coverage.

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I encourage everyone to sign this. NPR has truly disgraced itself by taking this action; it needs to reverse course ASAP.

 

Sign the petition to NPR: “One part-time reporter covering climate and the environment is not enough! Reverse your decision to radically reduce your coverage of climate change and the environment.”

Add your name:

Sign the petition ►

Dear Lowell,

National Public Radio just made the baffling decision to drastically reduce its staff dedicated to covering climate change and the environment, leaving just one part-time reporter on the beat.1

It’s unacceptable for one of our major sources of journalism in the public interest to essentially abandon it’s coverage of climate and the environment by reducing the staff covering it from four full-time journalists to one part-time reporter.

Tell NPR: One part-time reporter is not enough. Reverse the decision to slash your team of reporters covering climate change and the environment. Click here to sign the petition.

NPR pays attention to its critics, and is sensitive to criticism that it is failing to meet its duty to inform the public on the most pressing issues of our generation. Americans need more coverage of climate change and other environmental issues, not less.

Due in large part to deliberately misleading coverage from conservative outlets like Fox News, and corporate media that insists on presenting “two sides” of the debate even if one side is blatantly lying, the American public is actively misinformed about climate change.

As a result, public understanding of the crisis is heading in the wrong direction. In 2013, the percentage of Americans who don’t believe in climate change actually went up 7%. Only 47% of the American people believe that climate change is caused by human activities.2

Tell NPR: One part-time reporter is not enough. Reverse the decision to slash your team of reporters covering climate change and the environment. Click here to sign the petition.

NPR’s decision is part of a disturbing anti-science trend within the news media. According to a study released last year, the number of newspapers that included a weekly science sections has shrunk from 85 to just 19 in the past 25 years.3 That’s why it is so crucial for NPR to provide meaningful coverage of climate change that is honest with the American people about the scope of the problem and what must be done to address it.

NPR was created by an act of Congress in order to be an alternate news service that would address issues of national concern.4 NPR should devote more resources to covering climate change and other environmental topics, not less.

Tell NPR: Don’t reduce your coverage of climate change and other environmental issues. Click the link below to sign the petition:
http://act.credoaction.com/sign/NPR_Dont_Abandon_Environment/?t=6&akid=12120.4095727.kwQbGv

Thanks for fighting climate change.

Josh Nelson, Campaign Manager
CREDO Action from Working Assets

Add your name:

Sign the petition ►

 

  1. “NPR Reduces its Environmental Team to One Reporter,” Inside Climate News, October 24, 2014.
  2. “Misinformation Is Winning – Doubt In Climate Change Climbing,” DeSmogBlog.com, February 1, 2014.
  3. “NPR Slashes Number of Environmental Reporters,” Huffington Post, October 24, 2014.
  4. “NPR Guts its Environment and Climate Reporting Team, Becomes 'Part of the Problem,” ThinkProgress, October 24, 2014.

 

When Dems Tout Newspaper Endorsements and “Fact Checks,” Are They Hurting Other Dems?

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What got me thinking about this question recently is several cases where a newspaper endorsement was touted by other Democrats, even as that same newspaper endorsed a Republican (e.g., John Vihstadt for Arlington County Board) for another office, dissed other Democrats (e.g., John Foust), etc. Same thing with the “fact checkers,” which are touted by Democratic candidates – in TV ads, mailers, etc. – when they go their way, but obviously not looked kindly upon when they bestow “Pinocchios” or “false” ratings on them. The question is, when Democrats tout newspaper endorsements or “fact checks” that go their way, are they helping themselves in the short-term at the expense of: a) their fellow Democrats in the short-term; b) themselves in the long-term; and/or c) their party in the long-term? Also, does this phenomenon fall into either the “Prisoner’s Dilemma” or “Tragedy of the Commons” paradigm? Here’s a synopsis of conversations I had with a national Democratic political operative and two Democratic committee chairs last night on this subject.

  • My question: “Doesn’t touting the endorsement increase its value, lend it credibility, etc., so then, when they endorse a Republican in the same or future election cycles, it’s hard to argue they’re idiots or whatever, because you just touted what an honor/privilege/etc. it was when they endorsed YOU? Is this similar to the ‘tragedy of the commons’ (‘individuals, acting independently and rationally according to each one’s self-interest, behave contrary to the whole group’s long-term best interests by depleting some common resource.’)?”
  • Response from Dem committee chair #1: “It’s very much that.”
  • Response from national Dem politico: “I don’t really sweat newspapers when it comes to that, in part because they just don’t have the influence they used to…We may be jaundiced because we’re in the backyard of the Washington Post, whose ed board long since lost the benefit of the doubt.” (I noted that Post editorial page editor Fred Hiatt prints climate science deniers, torture enthusiasts, etc., to which the national Dem politico responded, “**** that guy!”).
  • Response by Dem committee chair #2 to my comment  that the guy who makes the Post’s Virginia endorsements, Lee Hockstader, is “so horrible” — “Yes he is.” The biggest problem (among many other problems) with Hockstader, in my view: “He never attends any debates or comes to any events or interview the candidates most of the time or….anything, so why is he qualified to make endorsements?”
  • Comment from national Dem politico: “I don’t give the WaPo any benefit of the doubt. Fred Hiatt and all his minions can eat a bag of [redacted]…but I’d still rate the influence of the so-called fact checkers as far more poisonous.”
  • But here’s the conundrum, according to the national Dem politico: “political tacticians go for what works, or what they perceive to work.”
  • My response: “What I’m saying is that by acting in their own, narrow self interest, they do long-term damage while (they hope) furthering their narrow, short-term self interest. For instance, when the idiot Post endorses Republican John Vihstadt for Arlington County Board, it’s hard to blast them because another Dem is busy touting their endorsement by the same paper (actually, Lee Hockstader) — e.g., Gerry Connolly, Don Beyer — touting what a great honor it is, etc.”
  • Response by national Dem politico: “Sure – but it’s a collective action problem (you’re familiar w/ the prisoner’s dilemma, I take it)…and a tough one to solve in the heat of a campaign…And someone will always break ranks, because the American party system is organized as a loose network, not in top-down fashion.”
  • My response: “Right, but my point is, it’s doing long-term damage, because it puffs up these newspapers, gives them legitimacy which they most certainly do NOT deserve. For instance, the fact that the Post endorsement supposedly ‘worked for Creigh Deecds’ (whether it really did or not) puffs up Lee Hockstader/the Post’s importance, which hurts us when they endorse Republicans Frank Wolf, Tom Davis, John Vihstadt, whoever and/or say bad things about Democrats (e.g., John Foust).”
  • As for the “fact checkers,” my national Dem politico friend said, “I have no patience for bad actors – people who draw false equivalences in order to posture as somehow ‘above it all’…So Politifact, for instance, can suck my [redacted].”

Another recent example of what we’re talking about is the Denver Post’s endorsement of right wingnut U.S. Senate candidate Cory Gardner over Democratic U.S. Senator Mark Udall. The problem is, Democrats touted this paper’s endorsements of Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, as well as of Mark Udall in 2008. To me, that may have helped specific Democratic candidates (including Mark Udall) in the short term, but in the long term, it only makes the Denver Post’s bat****-crazy endorsement of Gardner (over the same Udall they endorsed in 2008) more credible this year, hurting Udall’s chances of reelection this time around. See what I’m saying?

Finally, how about when Democrats actually tout endorsements from right-wing newspapers (or organizations) which deny (or express “skepticism” about) climate science,  endorse right-wing candidates (e.g., George Allen in 2006, Bob McDonnell in 2009), etc? Again, isn’t that just lending these newspapers/organizations legitimacy, treating them as if their opinion is something we should care about (when it clearly isn’t, based on their many past idiocies)? Unfortunately, I fear that this behavior – Democrats touting endorsements from newspaper editorial boards (or, in many cases, single individuals) who are most certainly not our friends, or positive ratings from flawed “fact checkers” (which soon enough will come back to bite us in the butt) – will continue, as campaigns look for any short-term advantage they can get, even if it does long-term damage to themselves, their fellow Democrats, or the party as a whole. Sigh…

Virginia News Headlines: Saturday Morning

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Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Saturday, November 1. Also see President Obama’s weekly address, in which he “highlighted the progress our economy is making, and the commonsense policies that could make it even stronger by ensuring that everyone who works hard has the opportunity to get ahead, especially women and working families.”

*Judge in Maine Eases Restrictions on Nurse (Good. This is not science based, ergo is a clear violation of her constitutional rights.)

*One pilot dead, one parachutes to ground in SpaceShipTwo test-flight failure

*Kentucky Coal Miners Say One Senate Candidate Is Pro-Miner, The Other Is Pro-Coal Company (Well, yeah, there’s a big difference between being pro-coal-COMPANY and pro-coal-MINER.)

*List: Last stops before Election Day

*CNN polls: Iowa, NC too close to call

*Virginia judge: Police can demand a suspect unlock a phone with a fingerprint

*GOP congressmen to appeal 3rd District gerrymandering ruling (“Virginia’s Republican congressmen have signaled they will appeal a court ruling that declared the state’s U.S. House district lines unconstitutional.”)

*Va. high court rules parents can’t be charged for tardiness

*Ann Romney will be in Virginia on Monday, campaigning for Gillespie and Comstock (Oh yay.)

*Comstock Leans In (Unintentionally funniest line of the day: “Comstock wants to be seen as a committed bipartisan, not a GOP attack dog.” Yeah right!)

*Comstock, Foust head for finish line in 10th District

*Distillers draft letter opposing McAuliffe price increases

*State sorting out potential liability in space launch explosion

*VSU President Keith Miller to step down Dec. 31

*Suspect in Virginia student murder arraigned in separate assault case

*Jesse Ferguson Lives to Fight Another Day

*Stafford family gets real treat with White House Halloween (“The trip was a welcome distraction for the [Broklawski] family. Mom Amanda is receiving chemotherapy treatments for non-Hodgkin lymphoma.”)

*Not a good start for November: Damp, dreary, windy and cold

A Journey Into Intimate Power and Abuse

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Wahoo Way and 5th Street Charlottesville photo WahooWayand5thStreet_zps71a7cc7f.jpgLast Friday I traced the route Hannah Graham took to the place she was discovered, curious to know, among other things, how long the drive had taken. I also wondered if a former residence of Matthew’s along the route that hadn’t been mentioned in the news had been searched.

My interest in any of this is part of a broader curiosity about the relationship between power and behavior that began with an attempt to better understand how sexual harassment, abuse, assault, and rape should be approached by the military leadership. I am certain that the initiatives taken to curb these issues in the military are aimed at the wrong targets and will falter. But I digress. October has been National Bullying Prevention Month. There was an eye-opening, at least for me, and gut wrenching series of presentations at the Charlottesville Shelter for Help in Emergency. And though Hannah Graham was not a known acquaintance of her alleged assailant, the motivations and social skills of this sort of assailant are strikingly similar. It is really their signatures that distinguish them. They are rarely insane, by the way.

Though I am not a psychiatrist or sociologist, I am going to dare to discuss the social pathology involved in behaviors that probably should not always be stove piped into various categories like bullying, domestic abuse, intimate partner abuse, elder abuse, child abuse, hazing, rape, murder, etc. You may recall that when Hannah Graham went missing, I suggested that she would not have been her assailant’s only victim. What I have come to recognize through a lot of study recommended by old friends who are experts is that these are varying manifestations of power and most of those who wield power in those ways do not perceptibly look or act differently from you or I unless they are among peers or bystanders under their influence. Their “success” is shaped by knowing what others perceive as right or wrong and only acting wrong in the presence of their victims or reliable bystanders. Often they count on their victims’ and any witnesses’ shame to provide leverage that avoids consequences for their actions.

So, before I go below the fold, I want to repeat what I know is easier for me to say than for others to do: if you are or know a victim of any of these trespasses, report, report, report…do not stand by, get help; help others.

What I realized last Friday was that even a casual look at any case like Graham’s reveals information that becomes chaotic in its abundance. Not every lead can be followed. They have to be racked and stacked so that what may be most promising is followed first; simply a resource constraint. I was going to participate in the search effort on the Saturday after Hannah was found. Because the searches were suspended, I had not been to the site. I also was curious about the apartment complex where Matthew had lived that is along the same route that takes one past his parents’ residence (where he had grown up) to the park where there is a lake where he may have fished. It is reasonable to assume he knew the entire route well.

There were no signs that any search had been conducted at the apartment complex or around the adjacent storm drainage pond and the steep terrain abutting I-64. Coincidently there was a cab parked in the parking lot. But a little something that caught my attention is that there is a Region X Community Services Board facility next to that complex. Again, this is where tangents begin to create distractions in any investigation. One might wonder if Alexis Murphy ever used Region X services in her hometown or even here where she worked on the opposite side of town. Would a sophisticated stalker identify potentially vulnerable victims at a facility like this? The video from the Charlottesville mall show Matthew stalking. I will return to stalking in a subsequent post.

Then I drove toward the location where Hannah was found. That drive from downtown Charlottesville takes a while. The street turns into a broad, divided four lane thorughfare, but quickly narrows just past his former residence after it becomes Old Lynchburg Road into a winding and hilly unmarked byway. There is even a four way stop at a crossroad just before approaching the location. Even in a hurry, it might take 25 minutes or more. She was either conscious and unafraid of her driver or unable to resist. In either case, whoever engaged her and provided transport had the social skills to trap her, gainning her confidence for some period of time. By the way, because she was found in the county, the jurisdiction for the murder is Albermarle County while the abduction’s is the city.

During a discussion with an Albemarle County Assistant Commonwealth’s Attorney this week, I was told that criminal investigators distinguish between serial offenders whose signature is rape and those who sign off with murder. Bear in mind that the final act is a flourish and not the driving motive. Both manifest violent power over their victims. It would appear that Jesse Matthew may test that distinction or may show how perpetrators’ behaviors can be shaped by “success” or “failure” to dominate without being held accountable. In this situation there were two alleged rapes where the victims were left alive and they reported. The attack in Fairfax appears to be his first attempt after transition from rapist to murderer. And it appears he learned even more from that attack about isolation.

Here is something most disturbing for me so far. In the Jesse Matthew story, two strong women did come forward and they were failed at both Liberty University and Christopher Newport University by being shamed. They were failed in much the same way that Sarah Butters was failed at James Madison University. And you realize where that kind of institutionalized failure may lead. It really provides a clearer indictment of leadership and culture in every one of those cases and schools.

What will follow over the next while are a number of stories about what I gleaned from the Shelter series. Where my curiosity has taken me isn’t pretty. I only hope I can do justice to the stories of power and abuse I will tell. At least one can’t be told in anything less than a book. But I also hope to convey during all of this the importance of legislation that is needed to change state code to protect at least some victims. Possibly along the way, there’ll be more.

Video: Barbara Comstock Took Her Client’s Money, Hid It “Behind Closed Doors”

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One more ad prior to election day on Tuesday. If you live in the 10th CD, make sure you vote — for John Foust!

Virginia News Headlines: Friday Morning

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Here are a few national and Virginia news headlines, political and otherwise, for Friday, October 31. Happy Halloween!

*Why a GOP Senate could be short-lived (Yep, even IF they win the Senate on Tuesday, it’s likely not going to last very long. Of course, they’ll do as much damage as possible in those two years, but fortunately President Obama has his veto pen.)

*Do Republicans have a plan for the country? The answer is ‘no’.

*The GOP’s Other Takeover (“Republicans are about to take control of state legislatures across the land.” This is a huge problem.)

*Apple’s Cook: ‘I’m proud to be gay’ (Cue the insanity from the Pat Robertsons and EW Jacksons of the world…)

*Rush Limbaugh Defends Street Harassment: ‘It Was Men Being Polite’ (I can never figure out if Limbaugh actually believes all the crazy, disgusting things he says. But what about his listeners?  Now that’s a frightening thought for Halloween!)

*Capture of Accused Cop Killer Eric Frein Saves Halloween

*Hard-Nosed Advice From Veteran Lobbyist: ‘Win Ugly or Lose Pretty’ (This guy is by any measure one of the most evil people in America, for instance fighting to make it easier to abuse, mistreat, torture animals. Why does he do it? Simple: $$$$$$$.)*

*Virginia Senate race narrows to seven-point gap

*McDonnell defense moved for mistrial over juror’s ouster

*Suzanne Patrick pledges efforts to protect against storm damage during Hampton visit

*Cuts in public safety prompt legislators to eye ABC for more revenue

*Western Marcellus Pipeline is 3rd seeking passage through Va. (Bad, bad idea.)

*McAuliffe sees ‘no contamination issues’ at Wallops Island

*New regulations likely for small day cares in Virginia

*China-based company buys Petersburg chemical plant, plans 376 jobs

*Rep. Robert Hurt takes no stance on Atlantic Coast Pipeline (Profile in courage, eh?)

*For Arlington County Board and school board (Just keep in mind, the guy who writes these endorsements, Lee Hockstader, never comes to debates or other events, doesn’t interview the candidates, basically has no clue what he’s talking aobut, and frequently does boneheaded things like falsely calling the hard-right Frank Wolf a “moderate” and endorsing him repeatedly.)

*Feds subpoena records from deals made by jailed developer

*Halloween weather not too spooky, but the weekend won’t be a treat

Video, Photos: Tim Kaine Campaigns for Alan Howze in Arlington

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Here are some photos (on the “flip”) and video (here and in the comments section) of Sen. Tim Kaine campaigning for Arlington County Board candidate Alan Howze at the farmer’s market next to Ballston Metro around 4 pm today. Go Alan!



The Right’s Urge to Kick Down: Doing Unto Others as Has Been Done Unto You

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In “More on the O’Reilly/Stewart Brouhaha: The Right-Wing Urge to Kick Down,” I offered one explanation of how non-rich white people can get motivated to kick down on those below them (especially blacks, but also any of those “takers” they like to contrast with the virtuous, hard-working people they like to see themselves as being).  It is an old con job, where the dominant class sells a phony picture to induce one group of people they are exploiting to take their anger and frustration out on those below them.

Kick downward at the suppopsdly lazy, good-for-nothing poor, rather than protest upward at the source of the real injustice.

But that explanation doesn’t explain the impulse to kick down shown by the likes of Bill “What White Privilege?” O’Reilly, nor by the rich men with whom Mitt Romney sought to ingratiate himself with his “47%” comment.

Surely, part of the motivation for the distortion of reality is that the warped picture provides justification for the elite’s lack of compassion for those who suffer under their domination.  

But something deeper is going on.

It is not only the poor who experience being the recipient of a downward kick. That template of the downward kick is so ingrained in the culture – at multiple levels, and especially in some parts of the culture – that even many who, in socio-economic terms, are in dominant positions have had profound experiences of that kick-down pain.

Consider, for example, the core of the worldview of many in our civilization – i.e. in the religious realm – captured in the famous phrase of that eighteenth century New England theologian, Jonathan Edwards: “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God.”

This idea expresses an important part of how, over the centuries, a large segment of white America has understood the nature of the relationship between man and God.

Christianity can, of course, express itself in other ways. In black churches, for example, it is not “an angry God” one hears about–at least judging from the many hours I spent attending services in black churches (mostly in Roanoke and Lynchburg, Virginia) during my campaign for Congress a couple of years ago.

In these services, I heard three main themes.

One was a theme of God’s love available as a comfort and a support in one’s suffering and despair. Even if one knew nothing of the historical and situational context of the congregation, one would know that this message was being delivered to people who were struggling, beaten down, in need of an infusion of hope.

A second was a theme of gratitude, calling upon the listeners to be thankful for the things that they do have–thankful for that morning, for the sunlight, for breathing, for each person among their friends and families. Even if one knew nothing of the context, one would intuit that it was important for their well-being for the people in the congregation not to focus on their deprivations.

And the third was a theme of possibility and responsibility, the idea that giving in to despair was not allowed, that an attitude of “yes I can” will carry you through, and that God is there to support you along the way. (No encouragement heard there for being a slacker, or a taker, or a parasite.)

Another thing I never heard a word of in a black church was any image of a wrathful God. (The world, perhaps, dishes out punishment enough. There’s no need to look to heaven to compound that burden.)

In white churches, over the generations in America, the message has very often been different. * [Note, below]

The notion that we are all deserving of damnation, and saved from eternal torment only through an undeserved granting of God’s grace, goes deep in the American religious tradition.  Certainly not all white churches focus on the depravity of the human being and the wrath of God. But the sermons of “fire and brimstone” are still to be heard in America. And in any event, the echoes of that message still resonate in the culture.

These are not trivial beliefs. Core religious beliefs arise out of people’s core experiences of their reality. And then they in turn create fundamental templates for their reality.

In this context, “Sinners in the Hands of an Angry God” represents a basic template for the kick-down nature of the hierarchical relationship. But as basic as it is, that template did not come from nowhere. It expressed something deep in people’s experience of the world.

It is revealing that this emphasis on human depravity emerged at the same time as certain areas of Western culture were fostering a particularly stringent set of moral demands. Max Weber’s The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism delineated how the take-off of capitalism, with its unprecedented productivity feeding a corresponding take-off in the wealth and power of nations, was made possible by an ethic of strict discipline, unceasing work, and denial of gratification in favor of continual investment.

In other words, the people who saw themselves as “sinners in the hands of an angry God” were people who had been compelled, as they grew up, to internalize a set of moral demands that was in conflict with their inborn needs and nature. Not for the first time in the history of civilization, power rested on a process of socialization that required the internalization of a judgment hostile to their natural inclinations.

The relation between God and man goes deep in a culture. But even more fundamental, I would argue, is the experience of the growing child of the relation between parent and child. The history of childhood in civilization contains many nightmares. One of these is the widespread experience of children, in many Western societies, growing up to be hyper-productive, hyper-responsible, hyper-repressed members of a society that worships the production of wealth. Or growing up to be repressed in the expression of their sexuality, or spontaneity, or other aspects of the human being’s inborn nature.

Such a kick-down process of socialization can be compared to the sadistic hazing of initiates into a club: as active members do unto the initiates as was done onto them, so also in a society with a harsh morality the parents will be driven by the impulse to replicate upon their own children the same kick-down energy that was inflicted on them when they were children. The parents are moved to this recapitulation not only by social pressure, but by the emotional forces growing out of their own unintegrated psyches.

It is therefore not at all surprising that it is in those parts of America that conceive of moral requirements in the most harsh and absolutist terms that we find the strongest impulse to deal with those below them not with compassion but with punitive demands.

Identifying during childhood with the punitive power, in order to escape the painful experience of being the one punished, and in order to fit into the harsh world, a person must live a lie — I am not the Sinner but the agent of the Angry God holding that sinner over the fire — and find outside himself a scapegoat onto whom to project the parts of the self that he has felt compelled to deny.

It’s a case of do unto others as has been done onto you.

And so here we have a substantial piece of the answer to the riddle with which we began: even if a person grows up to be rich and powerful, like O’Reilly and the Republicans listening to Romney about the irresponsible, dependent, slothful “47%,” the old pattern of (parental) power beating down (a child’s) weakness continues to foster the impulse to kick down.

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There are two points here that are central to the overall themes of my “Press the Battle” series.

First, that there are patterns or templates that get transmitted through the human world, and that these patterns are key to understanding how “good” and “evil” (or the forces of wholeness and those of brokenness) operate in our world.

The “kick-down” template, described here, is but one of those templates by which the pattern of brokenness gets transmitted.

And second, that a key aspect of transmitting the pattern of brokenness is the inculcation of a harsh morality. A harsh morality requires the growing human being to internalize cultural demands that run contrary to the needs and nature of the human creature. This fosters a war within, which is brokenness at the psychological level. And this war within, in turn, ramifies back outward into conflict in the world.

The urge to “kick down” against the already downtrodden is one of the forms that outward ramification can take.

The “Press the Battle” series , which has been appearing here in installments, can also be seen in its entirety here.

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*NOTE: Maybe an important reason for that difference — between black and white churches, in the tendency to envision an “Angry God” — is that the whites were required to identify with the powers above them, so that they would support the status quo. But the blacks –having been told that, while they were subject to the ruling system, they were emphatically not part of it — were dealt with differently: rather than being enlisted (manipulated) to support that system, as were the subordinated whites, the blacks were coerced into submitting to it. One might imagine that whether or not one identifies with the oppressive power structure dominating the secular world in which one lives will influence one’s likelihood of worshipping a wrathful God.