by Paul Goldman

Yesterday, I was all alone out on the limb, my email and text messages filled up with criticisms of my prediction that Obama would not be slam dunked by the Congress on Syria. Folks laughed, said Larry Sabato was the guru with the Crystal Ball, and it was time for me to admit that Mark Warner had really run the Wilder campaigns. All the “geniuses” were a work as usual.

But now: I can expect the usual, folks saying that I just lucky. I concede: it could be luck, maybe dumb luck. Whatever you call it: As predicted, there is now a “big upside for The Prez…”

“Don’t forget” I observed, that “Assad doesn’t want the U.S. to attack him. He will go to great lengths to avoid it.”  “THE POINT BEING” I pointed out: “A credible threat of even a small U.S. strike against Assad’s government is big time scary to the Syrian regime. The same for Russia,” their key backer.

I wrote: “As I read the polls, Americans are not opposed to sending a forceful message discouraging the use of chemical weapons, or defending national security interests when threatened in Syria. Rather, they are skeptical of what we can do to benefit America in that war zone, fearful whatever we do will be a net-minus, indeed risk getting us bogged down in another senseless war effort where the promised gain will again morph into yet another loss of life, treasurer and trust in our political system.”

Yes, Sabato is right, as were others, that it’s always safer to go with the conventional wisdom, to NEVER go out on the limb, to always go with the crowd. That way you never get criticized, because everyone has to protect themselves. It’s a life on your knees, but you think otherwise.

Remember months ago when I was predicting a Democratic sweep on November 5? Sabato and others were being quoted as saying Cuccinelli was a “sure winner” based on how the campaign was going down. I wrote an article right here on Blue Virginia to refute it. As they say, you can look it up, back in May I believe. No one joined me on the limb then, either.

But back to Syria right now.  

“It is difficult to see the political math adding up to an authorization for something other than…aimed [at punishing] Assad for the use of chemical weapons. The Russian proposal  – and let’s not kid ourselves, it is pure 200-proof politics by the Russians, a chess play to save a client – is merely that opening where you purposely sacrifice a pawn, it puts your opponent off guard. Or what they call a “loss leader” in business. Putin is giving away – the Syrians have to go along with his play – chemical weapons no longer of any value, in order to set in motion a clever process which he hopes will make a military attack by the U.S. impossible in the foreseeable future. Moreover, by getting U.N. inspectors and others on the ground, it will make the whole fighting of the civil war more complicated.

The risk is this. Putin next week says: Okay, Assad is giving up his chemical weapons, why aren’t we demanding that the rebels give up theirs? Remember, he and Assad are saying the August 21st attack wasn’t by their side, but it happened so someone had to do it by their analysis? Thus, are they not saying or implying that the rebels have chemical weapons or something similar? Logically then, would not the UN resolution have to be “even handed,” asking all sides to give you their chemical weapons? But the rebels say they don’t have any, that Putin and Assad are lying.

Meaning: if you believe Putin, then the rebels are refusing to abide by international law and Assad, the murderer, is abiding by giving up the chemical weapons at the demand on the UN. My point being: surely we need to expect Putin to add such an “even-handed” addition to any UN resolution. How can the US and others refuse without saying the rebels don’t have any such weapons. Which of course risks having the Russians/Syrians plant them on the rebel forces. Remember the chemical weapons are no of no use to Assad. If he were to use them again, it would back stab the Russians, and force American public opinion to reassess.

Since we are now in 200-proof political mode on the world stage, I am just suggesting that all plot lines must be explored. Thus, Assad, the good tyrant, willing to give up his WMD’s for the good of the world community. Nobel Peace Prize awaits!    

The 200-proof, “out on the limb” analysis: Yeah, the limb was creakin’ something awful yesterday — Sabato and the Sabato wannabees doing their “high fives” and selling them crystal balls. Like I say: they coulda been right. I was out there without a net, but thinking the President ain’t “chopped liver” as they say the Big Apple, that he had moves he could make. Besides: I never figured Democrats would abandon their own guy on the battlefield. That never made sense. You give him some cover at least.

Moreover, Ronald Reagan had a point, when it comes to dealing with the Ruskies and their posse, you got to “trust but verify.” I see where Bombs Away McCain and his Sgt. Schultz (aka, Senator Lindsay Graham), are already stealing Ronnie’s line. But it is good advice.

So yes: It is just another lonely day at the OK Corral: you don’t want to shoot no one, but you don’t control who rides into town. In theory, the Russian, now French, soon-to-be-UN-Security-Council resolution can work, and give all the big players cover. Meaning: I believe the Obama Administration can rightly, but in a “limited, proportional” way, take credit for calling the Russian bluff, the Assad bluff, and making them go to Plan B.

But I would be leery of taking too much credit. It might work but it is not the smart play here. A little goes a long way sometimes, and this is one of those times in my book. I would not be trying to spike the ball here, just take the points on the board and be humble.  Moreover, the Russian proposal is a political compromise, nothing more at this stage. It is really the “No More Chemical Weapons” equivalent of the “No Car Tax” slogan that won the 1997 GUV race.

Let’s be honest: The devil ain’t giving no details because the devil is in the details. But you got to love the “spin” if you love the game, so it is fun now out on the limb, got a lot of company, all proving that defeat is an orphan and victory has a thousand fathers, as the old adage goes. This thing is a long way from being over, so get set for a wild ride. But the politics is a lot better for the President today than yesterday. That’s a big plus for America, and in the end, that’s what counts.  

(To this point, Ken Cuccinelli has put out tax and education proposals that would massively DEFUND public education in Virginia – disastrous. In stark contrast, educators are strongly backing Terry McAuliffe, because they know he will fight to improve our public education system, not privatize it, outsource it, or parochialize it. Seriously, anyone who thinks that Ken Cuccinelli is a friend of public education is smoking some serious, serious stuff that would get you suspended from school for a long time! – promoted by lowkell)

Ad featuring teacher puts spotlight on Terry McAuliffe’s vision for education in the Commonwealth

WASHINGTON-NEA and its independent-expenditure political action committee, The NEA Advocacy Fund, today launched a new television and digital ad in the competitive Virginia gubernatorial race. The ad, titled “Unique,” shines a positive spotlight on the public education vision of gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, and the approach he would take if elected governor of the Commonwealth.

“Educators welcome Terry McAuliffe’s vision for public schools, students and educators in Virginia,” said Karen M. White, NEA Political Director. “His bold education plan would invest in and strengthen public education, create outstanding public schools with smaller class sizes, and turn the page on the current one-size-fits-all approach to educating Virginia students.”

Kicking off the sprint to Election Day in Virginia is a 30-second spot called “Unique,” in which a teacher talks about how each child is unique and how each student learns differently. Sitting in her classroom with students, the teacher, Precious Crabtree, a Virginia Education Association and NEA member, reminds voters of McAuliffe’s commitment to create outstanding public schools. More than 50,000 NEA/VEA teachers like Ms. Crabtree and other school personnel are working for the betterment of public education in the Commonwealth. Out of respect for our fallen, the NEA Fund will not run the ad on September 11, 2013.  

Scheduled to run for four weeks, this television and digital ad is a significant buy, running in more than two thirds of the state, including the Richmond, Hampton Roads, and Roanoke markets. A second, hard-hitting contrasting ad aimed at setting the record straight about Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s misguided education plan is scheduled to air later in the week. The new ad goes hand-in-hand with the GOTV effort the National Education Association and the Virginia Education Association are deploying in the state, which includes member-to-member communications and a robust digital media presence.

“Election Day in Virginia is eight weeks away,” said White. “Now is the time to get the word out to voters about Terry McAuliffe, a real education champion. Our engagement in this critical race is to make sure voters have the information to make the right decision about education in November.”  

Here are a few Virginia (and national) news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, September 10.

*France to float resolution at UN Security Council over alleged Syria chemical weapons use. (“France will float a resolution in the U.N. Security Council aimed at forcing Syria to make public its chemical weapons program, place it under international control and dismantle it, the French foreign minister said Tuesday.”)

*Obama says Russian plan

on Syria may be ‘breakthrough’

*Divided Congress races against time to pass budget (It’s not just “divided,” we’ve got a bunch of nihilists in the Teapublican House caucus hell bent on destroying our economy.)

*Unintended Pregnancies Are Increasingly Concentrated Among Poor Women Who Lack Birth Control Access (The Ken Cuccinellis, EW Jacksons and Mark Obenshains of the world all want to make this problem much, much worse.)

*Herring for attorney general (“…the contrast between the two candidates – in judgment, in legal analysis, in priorities – couldn’t be clearer. Herring is the better choice to be Virginia’s next attorney general.”)

*Jumbled advice on schools (“An opinion from the attorney general muddies constitutional principles that prohibit public funds for private schools.”)

*Candidate with a conflict (“Cuccinelli should step back and let someone else advise Board of Elections”)

*Cuccinelli against Dulles rail, but duty calls on him to defend funding (Wait, so he opposes the project but supports spending taxpayer money to build it? Huh?!? Can we say “slippery politician?”)

*Ratings Change: Virginia Governor (“As the stretch run for the Virginia gubernatorial election begins, Democrat Terry McAuliffe has established himself as a narrow but clear front-runner over state Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a Republican.”)

*Loudoun Again Cited As Key Battleground For State Races

*McAuliffe works to shed grip-and-grin rap in Virginia race

*Campaign Funds show Concentrated Support for Candidates

*In down ballot race, NRA backs Jackson for LG (Shocker, huh – an extremist group goes for an extremist?)

*Teachers’ lobby begins pro-McAuliffe ad push (The bottom line: if you care in ANY way about Virginia public education, you will turn out on November 5 and vote for Terry McAuliffe, Ralph Northam, and Mark Herring.)

*In Fairfax library revamp, 250,000 readable books went into the trash (They weren’t even recycled or offered free to the public?)

*Hot shot of summer through Thursday

*Washington falls victim to unique attack (Note: I will not say the racist name of this team – the great sports writer Thomas Boswell yesterday on the Post agreed that it’s racist and will have to change – and am seriously tempted to ban it like any other racist term from this blog.)

*Gio Gonzalez throws one-hitter as Nationals clobber 5 home runs in 9-0 win over Mets (Better late than never for a Nats surge?)

Construction isn’t even finished yet, but already Arlington, VA has seen 3,600 people apply for 122 new units of affordable housing, according to a Washington Post report by Patricia Sullivan. But there’s one thing the article doesn’t say: Arlington shrank the size of the affordable housing complex to please neighbors:

In preparation for its proposal, [Arlington Partnership for Affordable Housing] staff met with many stakeholders in the Arlington Mill community to hear concerns and ideas. From these meetings, it reduced the number of units to address concerns of the Park Glen community that the complex was too large for the space, adjacent  to the Park Glen condos; and some of the concerns about the density of the project with resulting traffic and crowd-control issues.

From an APAH presentation on the project:

Responds to community issues and County goals: The building height was lowered and the unit count was reduced from 192 (256 bedrooms) units to 122 (245 bedrooms) units.

Note that this building is only about four stories. Not exactly turning Columbia Pike into lower Manhattan.

Artificially limiting the amount of housing a developer can build comes with real-life consequences. By limiting height, restricting the number of units, or in the case of suburbs, mandating each unit be built on a certain lot size, you’re telling a certain number of people they’re not allowed to live there and will have to look elsewhere for housing. And when at least 3,600 people are in such urgent need of affordable housing, every unit counts. As Slate’s Matt Yglesias has detailed, limits on building size in urban cores have devastating effects. Fortunately, the tide is slowly turning in favor of allowing taller buildings and denser developments in urban centers – for example, Boston Mayor Tom Menino’s newly-unveiled affordable housing plan.