So…you know how Ken Cuccinelli has been constantly citing a “gag order” as an excuse not to discuss his office’s total mishandling of the Star Scientific and Governor’s mansion scandals? For instance, see Virginia governor’s ex-chef seeks subpoena of attorney general, in which “{b}oth Brian Gottstein, spokesman for the attorney general, and Christopher J. LaCivita, Cuccinelli’s chief political strategist, said their organizations could not comment on the motion {filed in Richmond Circuit Court on Friday seeks a judge’s permission to issue subpoenas to Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and one of his top lieutenants, Patrick Dorgan] because of a gag order imposed on the case by Circuit Judge Margaret Spencer.” Or see Cuccinelli fights bid to compel testimony, which talks about how “Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli and one of his senior assistants are fighting an attempt to issue them subpoenas to testify in the embezzlement case of former Executive Mansion chef Todd Schneider…{Judge} Spencer has imposed a gag order on discussion of the case by the prosecution and defense.” On and on it goes, with Team Cuccinelli constantly citing this “gag order” as an excuse not to comment on any of this stuff. Except…
…Yesterday, Cuccinelli appeared on WRVA’s Jimmy Barrett show. At around 5:17 or so, the discussion turns to the case of Governor’s Mansion chef Todd Schneider. Note that Cuccinelli does NOT cite any “gag order” here. Instead, we get a detailed analysis Cuccinelli about the ins and outs of the Governor’s Mansion/chef/embezzlement case. Which is all well and good, except what happened to the “gag order” in the case, the one Cuccinelli and Company references over and over again (“We also reached out to Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli’s office, who declined to comment due to the gag order“) when he doesn’t feel like talking about the case?!? Fascinating, huh?
In sum, Ken Cuccinelli apparently believes he can have it both ways: 1) cite Judge Spencer’s “gag order” whenever he doesn’t want to talk about the Governor’s Mansion/chef corruption scandal; and 2) do NOT cite the “gag order” and chat away about whatever he feels like. So, here’s the question for all the lawyers out there: did Cuccinelli violate Judge Spencer’s “gag order” on WRVA yesterday or not? If not, why not?
I’m very happy to see this letter from Sen. Chap Petersen. Among other things, it’s good to see someone in the Virginia Democratic Party establishment who’s willing to call for our corrupt, grifter Governor to come clean on his burgeoning corruption scandals or step down. What’s ironic is that it took one of the most moderate/conservative Democrats in the Virginia General Assembly to do this. Where’s everyone else on this? I mean, it’s not like this story is hard to understand – Bob McDonnell’s corrupt, and Ken Cuccinelli is both corrupt AND covering up for McDonnell – and both of them need to resign, immediately. I’m amazed that leading Virginia Democrats (e.g., the “Progressive Caucus”) haven’t done what Chap just did, but thanks to Chap for having the cojones to do what’s right. Not that our Grifter Governor will give a rat’s hindquarters…
Earth to the Virginia press, pundits, professors, and political editorial writers: What you think you know about the 2013 campaign is all wrong. When all is said done – and $100 million spent – he is the very likely bottom line:
In the 2009 GUV race, exit polls said 34% of the voters where Evangelical/Born-Again Christians. They voted 83% for Bob McDonnell. In the 2012 presidential race, Evangelical/Born-Again Christians were only 23% of the electoral. They voted 83% for Mitt Romney.
In 2009, 21% of the voters came from urban areas, 48% suburban, and 31% from Virginia’s rural communities. In 2012, 22% came from urban areas, 50% from suburban, and 28% from rural communities. Thus, on a statistical basis, the urban/suburban/rural mix in both years was roughly the same on a generic definition basis given the margins of error.
Bob McDonnell won easily in 2009, the President won close but convincingly in 2012. Indeed, if you study closely the 2012 election – and Kaine’s election in 2005 – this much is clear: If Ken Cuccinelli knew how to run a campaign for Governor, the idea that he was too extreme to win would be ludicrous to anyone who knew anything about winning elections.
To be sure, Bolling bolting, Jackson ranting and now McDonnell’s ethical meltdown have created all kinds of problems for the VA GOP. Moreover, failure to evidence a real passion for the normative issues which have decided GUV races over the years has led to the weirdest GOP GUV campaign in memory. This is why I was the first to say all the omens are there for the first Democratic sweep since Wilder led the party to victory in 1989.
But it is also why I am the first to say the following: If by some reason of smarts or luck the Cuccinelli campaign gets a straight, more normative shot at the Democrats this fall, there is a way for the GOP candidate to win even though the Democrats have all the advantages this year. My sweep can be swept aside. So much for that Crystal Ball.
The statistics don’t lie.
1. This is why I have said it is crazy for Cuccinelli to try and pretend he is now a moderate. He is a rock-ribbed conservative. His being against gay marriage and abortion will not cost him the election. His being against Medicaid expansion, Obamacare and the Governor’s road taxes will not cost him the election. If he can drive a 34% Evangelical turnout, then at least 40% of the voters will be conservative. These voters are going to be for Cuccinelli in the same big numbers as McD and Romney. There is NOTHING Terry MAC can do to win them over. Indeed, he is precisely the kind of Democrat they despise. The GOP will use this to drive the vote.
2. Without a big Evangelical/Born-Again turnout, Cuccinelli can’t win unless something changes the structure of this election. It can’t get to 50%. This is why Republicans were laughing when Democrats tried to encourage LG Bolling to run. Cuccinelli has to run a campaign that motivates this vote. If they are only 30% of the electorate, he isn’t going to win even with a perfect campaign.
Bottom line: It will be far easier for Cuccinelli to generate a 34% turnout ala 2009 than it will be for Democrats to significantly increase the turnout of the Obama base voter. However, the statistics suggest Democrats should come out better in 2013 than in 2009. For one thing, they have a smarter team in place with better focus. This will make it harder for Cuccinelli to get his 34% number. But it also means the GOP knows this too.
Moreover, Cuccinelli might not be able to win even with a 34% turnout if Terry MAC maintains his strength with moderate voters. Why? There is not going to be much cross-over voting between partisans: but to the extent there is, Terry figures to get more than Cuccinelli. Independents are more moderate as a group than partisans.
Net, net: Terry has a statistical advantage right now because he has a good chance to pull from three wells of voters slightly better than Cuccinelli can afford: Republicans, the marginal DEM base turnout voter, and independents.
Thus: Unless Cuccinelli can get a big Evangelical/Born-Again turnout, he seems statistically blocked from getting 50% unless the McAuliffe campaign blows it. This is why the press, pundits, professors and political editorial types are telling the AG to go left, go moderate. But it is the wrong advice: even if he could win some additional unexpected votes on that side of the fence with such an a campaign, he can’t win enough of them to cover any short fall in the 34% number.
If Cuccinelli can get Evangelical/Born-Again Christians to make up 34% of the turnout, then he should get a minimum of 48% even with the worst campaign. More likely he would get closer to 49% under normative conditions. Terry MAC has several statistical ways to win: he doesn’t need to drive Democratic turnout to win, there are other ways.
But Cuccinelli is like the guys at D-Day: You can’t back up, you can only go forward. The Goldmans were at D-Day. You do what you got to do. Meaning: Either Cuccinelli gets a his turnout, or he loses. Unless conservatives are eager to vote for him, he is a sure loser. It is that mathematically simple.
So es, it is no revelation: The difference between 23% and 34% is HUGE. It is the key metric right now. Can Cuccinelli hit 34%?
Not as of today. That’s why I label him the underdog. But it is not impossible by any means even if he runs the worst campaign.
In his introduction to Virginia’s next Attorney General, Sen. Mark Herring, Sen. Donald McEachin gets a big round of applause when he says that “we need to get politics out of the Attorney General’s office.” In Herring’s speech, he emphasizes that we still have a lot more work to do in Virginia on LGBT equality. Herring talks about how Ken Cuccinelli “time and time again” used the Attorney General’s office to advance his personal, extreme ideological agenda, by misstating and/or manipulating and/or twisting the law, “and that’s an abuse of the powers of the office.” Herring said if we can thank Ken Cuccinelli for one thing, it’s that we all now realize how important the Attorney General’s office is in Virginia. Herring pledged to use the Attorney General’s office to promote LGBT equality, stop discrimination against LGBT Virginians, and to use the office as a bully pulpit to push for repeal of the anti-gay-marriage “Marshall-Newman Amendment.” I don’t know about you, but I am SO looking forward to saying the words “Attorney General Mark Herring,” I can’t even tell you. 🙂
*Abortion-rights group cites ultrasound problems in Va. (“Some crisis pregnancy centers are using Virginia’s law that requires doctors to tell patients where they can get a free ultrasound to try to discourage women from getting abortions, an abortion-rights group said Monday, the one-year anniversary of the law’s effective date”)
*Bryce Harper returns with a bang (“On his first return from the disabled list, Harper helps lift much weight off the collective shoulders of the Nats’ offense.”)
Clearly, former Virginia Gov. Jim “No Car Tax” Gilmore is a right wingnut – and a loser – of the first order. Still, he was elected Governor of Virginia, also served as Chairman of the Republican National Committee, as well as President/ CEO of the Free Congress Foundation. Presumably, he’s still very well plugged in to Republican thinking. Which is why when somebody tipped me off that Gilmore had written an op-ed in the African-American-oriented Richmond Free Press on how Republicans should go about winning back the African-American vote (click on image at right to “embiggen”), I was curious what he had to say. I mean, you know, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn occasionally, so you never know, right?
Except…no. Jim Gilmore’s op-ed is so stale, silly, insipid, stupid, it might have been written by a squirrel. A dead one. Seriously, check out what Jim Gilmore thinks passes for wisdom, with regard to Republicans winning back African-American voters, after years of convincing 95% of them NOT to vote Republican if they were the last party on earth!
Gilmore Lesson #1: Go back 50 years, 150 years (to Lincoln, perhaps?), whatever it takes to find a time when the GOP actually gave a crap about civil rights, helping African Americans move up the ladder, etc. Talk about “the GOP’s history as the party of civil rights,” which ended in the 1960s, when the former “Party of Lincoln” took on the former “Dixiecrats” (Strom Thurmond, Jesse Helms, etc., etc.) and switched to the infamous “Southern Strategy” – “gaining political support or winning elections in the Southern United States by appealing to racism against African Americans.” Sadly, that “Southern Strategy” hasn’t changed a great deal for decades, with Republican political candidates talking about “welfare queens,” Willie Horton, “black hands”, “minorities” loving “Obamacare” (and other benefits the “47 percent” supposedly get from the government, making them suckers for voting Democratic). What a pathetic joke that Jim Gilmore (and presumably other older, white, male Republicans like him) thinks African Americans would possibly vote for a party which holds them in such contempt, and which uses FEAR of them to win the votes of white racists. Wow.
Gilmore Lesson #2: Lie through your teeth, totally reverse reality. Thus, according to Gilmore, “Democrats are offering no real opportunity for African-Americans or anyone else to grow out of poverty and grasp the American dream.” In reality, of course, almost every single federal program – Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Head Start, the GI Bill, investment in crucial infrastructure and education, etc, etc., has “Democratic” written all over it. To the contrary, essentially the only thing Republicans have offered the past few decades has been supply-side/trickle-down economics (aka “Voodoo economics”), crony capitalism, unpaid-for wars, and massive dis-investment in America’s future, America’s urban areas, America’s people. Other than that, Republicans offer a great deal to people…if you’re in the top 0.1%, perhaps. Again, does Jim Gilmore really think that people of any color – black, white, whatever – are so stupid that they’re actually going to believe that the party of the rich and of big business gives a crap about those who are NOT rich or big business? If so…wow.
Gilmore Lesson #3. That’s really about it, other than throw out a few more lame attacks and bromides. I just wanted to make one more point, actually a question: Why on earth would Jim Gilmore write a column about how Republicans need to reach out to African Americans in an African-American newspaper, and not in a Republican newsletter or whatever? After all, it’s not African Americans who need to change, it’s Republicans who are doomed to losing national elections indefinitely, as long as they keep alienating African Americans, Latinos, Asian Americans, and enlightened white people. So, again…why is Gilmore spreading his nonsensical ramblings to African Americans (95% of whom are Democrats), and not to Republicans? So weird.
Bottom line: if this is all Republicans have to offer, they won’t be winning back African-Americans’ votes for a long, loooooong time to come. #FAIL
“Michael E. Mann: Photo from the campaign trail w/ @TerryMcAuliffe, visiting great Charlottesville VA medical startup @Hemosonics”
In stark contrast, Ken Cuccinelli pursues a “climate-change witch hunt”. Which would you prefer: a candidate (Terry McAuliffe) who respects and honors scientists and science, or one (Ken Cuccinelli) who mocks and harasses them? Nope, not a hard choice.
P.S. A bit later today, Aneesh Chopra and Michael Mann will discuss how Virginia’s next Governor needs to support the state’s research community and innovators in order to keep Virginia competitive in the 21st century. Needless to say, the last thing we need is a science denier 100% in the pocket of the fossil fuel industry.
Richmond, VA – One year ago today Virginia’s controversial mandatory ultrasound law took effect. Ken Cuccinelli and his allies pushed through the divisive measure as part of their extreme social agenda. The invasive policy forces women to undergo a medically unnecessary procedure.
“Politicians should not be making personal medical decisions that are best made between a woman and her doctor. This ultrasound law mandates an intrusive procedure that serves no medical purpose, only political ones, and ignores science to legislate what a woman should do with her body,” said Ralph Northam candidate for Lt. Governor and the only doctor in the Virginia Senate. “I am running for Lt. Governor to put an end to the divisive social agenda that puts jobs and our families last. Whether it is the personhood bill that would ban contraception or the invasive ultrasound mandate; I led the fight in the state Senate against these attacks on women’s health and I will do the same as Lt. Governor.”
Doctor Ralph Northam has been a leader on health care issues in the General Assembly and is the lead patron to repeal the current ultrasound law. His Republican opponent E.W. Jackson opposes all abortion rights, even in cases of rape, incest, and endangering the life of the mother, and shares the extreme social agenda of Ken Cuccinelli. NARAL Virginia and Planned Parenthood, the leading advocacy organizations for women’s health, have endorsed Ralph Northam.
Governor and Mrs. McDonnell believe they are above the law. As I will prove below, the Governor had TO KNOW the Rolex was NOT PAID FOR by his wife.
Ruin for a Rolex? If that is what Governor McDonnell wants, then he is surely on the path to receive it. Think about it: You live in one of the most historic mansions in the country, you have the title of one of the most historic Governorships in American history, you are the chief executive of a state that has figured huge in the nation’s founding, you have all the legitimate perks of power, your expenses are all paid, your have a possible 7-figure income when you get out with some law firm, you have the title for life, and yet: you have no appreciation, no reverence – none at all – for either the legacy or the people.
Indeed, you believe your stature is defined by wearing a Rolex@! Is that pathetic or what? The First Lady believes her stature is based on wearing an expensive dress, or having a wedding for her daughter they can’t afford? Is that not double pathetic or what?
I call them Virginia’s Beverly Hillbillies. But let’s be honest, they will be called by a different name, W—- T—-, in the country song that is going to be written about them if insist they did nothing wrong.
There are only 3 possible explanations for what has been the modus operandi at the McDonnell Governor’s Mansion these past 3 and 1/2 years. They are as follows:
1. The Governor and the First Lady were on the same page: milk it for all it’s worth, as long as they thought they could hide behind Virginia’s lax disclosure laws. If this explanation is true, then the gifts and the actions of the First Family are proof of promises of riches to follow once the McDonnells are out of office, by their getting “in” on the ground floor of Star Scientific’s new health product.
2. The Governor set some limits to what his wife could do, and she went way over the edge, in part by playing on Mr. McDonnell’s weaknesses. To be sure, Mr. Williams, the Star Scientific founder, is a master manipulator, who quickly realized the Beverly Hillbillies nature of the McDonnells. He saw their weak point and played them. I get that. But Williams could only succeed if the McDonnells allow themselves to be played.
3. The Governor simply decided to “turn a blind eye” and let his wife do her thing. He decided this was the only way to keep the peace in the marriage. He figured the laws where such that he could always create a technical defense if need be.
Sadly, there is only one logical conclusion. Here’s why. If the Governor objected to his wife’s actions, then he would have stopped her at the first sign of trouble. Moreover, he would have known the Rolex was not from her. When was the last time she bought him a $6,500 watch? NEVER.
THUS: Even if you assume the First Lady started all this ON HER OWN, at some point Governor McDonnell became a willing participant. He decided, at some point, to use Virginia’s lax laws on these matters to hide their exposure as Virginia’s Beverly Hillbillies.
I feel sorry for their staff, who are very talented and helped McDonnell become a national figure. But behind the hair and the good looks, HE IS RUNNING ON EMPTY. He and his wife have tried to milk the Governor’s office for all the personal gain they could. That’s clear to anyone who is willing to look at the facts as they are.
Now, McDonnell has two choices.
1) He can give the gifts back, she can give all that she got back, and they can ask Virginians to forgive them for such a huge mistake in judgment. I would be willing to do that for this reason: the U.S. Supreme Court has long said that it isn’t right to criminally prosecute under vague laws. There is enough vagueness in our financial disclosure laws to allow the McDonnells to make a legal defense as to whether the gifts were reportable.
BUT THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE GIFTS WERE REPORTABLE IS NOT THE ISSUE. The issue is that NO GOVERNOR OR FIRST LADY should be allowed to ever accept such gifts, PERIOD. The fact our laws make it okay – if reported – shows these laws need to be fundamentally changed, not enforced by criminal trials.
2. But if the Governor and the First Lady refuse to do the right thing – return the loot and ask forgiveness – then they are daring the General Assembly to initiate proceedings under Section 17 of Article V of the Constitution of Virginia. Such money corruption in the Office of Governor is grounds for impeachment. If McDonnell insists that he did nothing wrong, then why should the people of Virginia be forced to pay his pension for life, why should he be entitled to be called “Governor” for life? Do the leaders of the state really want to make it so clear they accept a double standard?
If McDonnell can’t admit it and ask forgiveness, then he is mocking us. I don’t like to be mocked. I don’t think the people of Virginia like to be mocked. I don’t think the people deserve to be mocked by their Governor. The Governor is saying to us by his actions: I am above the law, I am above common sense. Virginians are not seeking to punish the Governor. They only want him to say that he dropped the ball, that he messed up. Blame it on the wife, blame on the weatherman, just don’t play us for fools.
Virginia’s Beverly Hillbillies need to go, one way or the other. They can throw themselves on the mercy of public, leave quietly, collect their pension, keep their titles, and get whatever Mr. Williams or others have promised, enjoy private life. Or they can go Ugly. Even if they don’t get indicted or convicted, they will be held in maximum low regard by the public forever.
Is that worth a Rolex? If he is willing to risk all that for a Rolex, then Bob McDonnell is the smallest Governor in modern era. There is no one even visible in the rear view mirror.
Have any of you experienced this or heard about it from others around Virginia?
In 2012, Virginia’s Republican-controlled legislature enacted a budget provision that effectively forced the state’s tax department to outsource its refund system to a debit card company, claiming it would save the government hundreds of thousands of dollars annually. But the state’s deal with Xerox to replace tax refund checks with Comerica-issued debit card has meant headaches and fees for taxpayers and raised concerns about excessive outsourcing.
When the Virginia General Assembly passed its 2012 budget, largely along partylines, it included a requirement that “beginning January 1, 2013, the State Comptroller shall issue individual income tax refunds only through debit cards, direct deposits, or other electronic means unless the Tax Commissioner determines that a check is more appropriate for a transaction or class of transactions.” Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) signed the bill and his Department of the Treasury contracted with a division of Xerox to replace refund checks with MasterCard debit cards. Xerox agreed to provide the Comerica Bank-issued cards “at no cost to the Commonwealth,” but retained the right to impose a litany offees on the users.
Weeks after the first tax refund debit cards were issued, the problems started. While the recipients were promised one free online transfer, anyone attempting to do so was informed that there would be a $2 fee.
It happened to me when I took my Virginia tax refund debit card to the bank (Wells Fargo) and was charged a service fee ($2 or $3, I can’t remember). This is absurd, and also seems like a great case of Republican hypocrisy – taxpayers deserve their money back so we will give it to credit card companies through hidden fees. Argh.
P.S. Actually, I still have a few dollars left on that card, because the ATM can’t dispense in lower than $20 denominations. So…when I go to get the rest of MY MONEY out of there, am I going to get hit with ANOTHER fee, thanks to Virginia Republicans?!? And guess what; this is going to happen to you as well, if it hasn’t already. You can thank Bob McDonnell, etc.
by Paul Goldman
Here are a few Virginia (and national) news headlines, political and otherwise, for Tuesday, July 2.
Have any of you experienced 
