Monday, April 6, 2020
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And One More: Fox “News” Poll Has Northam Up 4 Points...

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My confidence level in polls generally speaking isn't super high, and of course my confidence in anything related to Fox is close to zero....

Some of the Biggest Polling and Aggregator #FAILs – and a...

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As it stands right now, it appears that Hillary Clinton will end up winning the popular vote for President over Donald Trump by at...

How Concerned About the Tightening of the Presidential Race Should We...

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Over this weekend, I wrote to both of the two people I know who follow politics most closely, and whose opinions I respect. I...

A Win-Win Way for Bernie to Lead Now

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Dear Bernie, There are some – such as you and some of your followers – who believe it is worthwhile for you to keep fighting...

Interpreting Bernie’s Optimistic Pre-NY-Primary Statements

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Last night, Rachel Maddow was much intrigued by how Bernie Sanders has been high-balling his chances in today's New York primary. The general rule,...

As Trump Comes Closer to GOP Nomination, Prediction Markets Show Clinton...

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I like these trends, courtesy of PredictWise prediction market...Hillary Clinton with a 70% chance (and rising) of becoming president, while Donald Trump has only...

Meet the Press Explains Why Policy Priority Polls are Pointless

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On Sunday's edition of Meet The Press, host David Gregory put up this graphic of a Pew poll to question whether climate action should be a top priority in Washington.

But the item directly below global warming on the list - global trade issues, ranked dead last - shows why the entire poll is pointless.

Guess what Washington is about to focus intensely on? Yup: Global trade issues. The Obama administration is pressing Congress to ratify the Trans Pacific Partnership, which Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) calls "the largest corporate power grab you never heard of."

What about jobs, which has been a top priority for years? Republicans have held the House for 1,141 days and counting without passing a jobs bill. They must not care about priority polls, either.

Cross-posted from The Green Miles

It’s Election Day! Don’t Forget to Vote!

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Happy election day! If you're a "lucky" resident of the 11th Delegate District or the 6th Senate District you get another chance to exercise your civic duty today. Go vote!

But if you're like me, you're stuck dealing with Arctic temperatures and no ability to vote. What a waste of a perfectly good Tuesday!

If democracy envy has you blue (and it's not hypothermia from the polar vortex) maybe you can spend some time going back over my "Twelve Days of Christmas" series and vote in the polls there? Check out some of the exciting issues I'm asking Blue Virginia about.

PPP: Virginia Supports Power Sharing, Bolling slightly better than Cuccinelli vs....

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New poll numbers today from Public Policy Polling show that the majority of voting Virginians support power sharing in the State Senate:

"On one hand only 31% of voters think the Republicans should have full control of the chamber, while 55% think there should be some sort of power sharing arrangement. Predictably Republicans think they should have all the power and Democrats think it should be shared.  Independents tip the balance by siding with the Democrats in support of power sharing by a 53/28 margin."

Additionally, LG Bill Bolling did  slightly better than AG Ken Cuccinelli when tested against Gerry Connolly, Terry McAuliffe:

"Bolling leads the 3 Democrats we tested by an average of 3 points- it's 39-36 over both Gerry Connolly and Terry McAuliffe and 39-35 over Tom Perriello. Cuccinelli meanwhile averages a tie against the 3 Democrats- he leads McAuliffe by a point at 41-40, ties Perriello at 41% each, and trails Connolly by a point at 41-40."

More numbers below.

PPP: “Virginia may be Obama’s firewall state”

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It's been a rough three years for Virginia Democrats since the glory days of 2005-2008, and 2013 could be tough, but polls like this one should put a smile on our faces for 2012 at least!

*"Obama leads both Mitt Romney (48-42) and Newt Gingrich (50-43) [in Virginia] by margins comparable to his 6 point victory over John McCain in 2008."

*Obama's approval rating in Virginia is in positive territory, at 48%-47%.

*In contrast, Newt Gingrich is at 31%-55% in Virginia, Rick "Missing Village Idiot" Perry's at an utterly abysmal 20%-61%, and Flip Floppin' Mitt is at a pathetic 33%-52%. Such a shame.

*Obama beats Romney among all age groups in Virginia except for one -- those older than 65. Among 18-29 year olds, Obama's crushing Romney by 22 points, and among 30-45 year olds, Obama's ahead by 14 points. It's almost the exact same story with Gingrich as well.

*Bottom line, according to PPP: ""It continues to look like Virginia may be Obama's firewall state," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "He's holding up well there and it's going to be tough for the Republicans to get to 270 electoral votes without it in their column."

So, let's win Virginia for Obama once again, all but guaranteeing him reelection as president (and almost certainly guaranteeing Kaine over Allen as well) in November 2012!