New VCU Poll: Biden +11 Points in Virginia; Massive Racial, Partisan Differences on Confederate Monuments; Whether “Blacks are treated as fairly as Whites”

Polling on Virginia has been pretty sparse the past few months, but we’re finally starting to get some. Yesterday, a poll came out from Hampton University, showing strong approval for Gov. Ralph Northam and strong *disapproval” for Trump. This morning, another new poll is out, this time from VCU’s L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs. Here are some key takeaways. Unfortunately, they didn’t ask about the U.S. Senate race or about key U.S. House races. Sigh…

• Joe Biden holds an 11-point lead (50%-39%) over Trump among likely voters in Virginia. “Support for Biden was almost unchanged, with a one percent increase since our last reporting in April 2020.”
• “Women prefer Joe Biden by 21% (52% Biden/31% Trump) and men prefer Trump by 11% (49% Trump/38% Biden). Those with a college degree or more prefer Biden by 22% (54% Biden/32% Trump) compared to those with a high school diploma or less who prefer Trump by 14% (51% Trump/37% Biden).”
• By region: NoVA goes for Biden massively (57%-23%); Tidewater for Biden by 12 points (46%-34%); South Central Virginia by 9 points (49%-40%) for Trump; Western Virginia by 22 points (56%-34%) for Trump; Northwest Virginia by 15 points (53%-38%) for Trump.
• Whites go 50%-36% for Trump, while everyone else goes 62%-22% for Biden.
• Democrats go 87%-6% for Biden; Republicans go 81%-9% for Trump; Independents go 40%-39% for Biden.
• By a 61%-34% margin, Virginia likely voters approve “of the way that Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is handling the government response to the coronavirus pandemic.”
• “Six-in-ten of Virginians (60%) believe wearing masks is helping a lot in slowing the spread of COVID…Minorities (with 66% vs. 56% of whites) and Democrats (with 76% vs. 44% of Republicans and 60% of Independents) were also more likely to say masks help a lot.”
• “Virginians’ support has shifted away from leaving confederate monuments where they are to relocating them to museums. A plurality of Virginians (38%) think that the remaining confederate monuments should be moved to museums, an increase of 15% from the last time we asked the question in December 2017. The percentage of Virginians who think the monuments should be left in place has decreased 17% in the same time period, from 49% in 2017 to 32% currently.”
• 54% of whites believe Confederate monuments should either be left in place (37%) or have context added (17%). A large majority (66%) of everyone else thinks that statues should be either relocated to museums (40%) or removed altogether (26%). Only 6% of Democrats think Confederate monuments should be left in place, as is, compared to 60% of Republicans who think that.
• “Thirty-five percent said Blacks are treated as fairly as Whites. That opinion was significant to vote choice and what should be done with the remaining confederate monuments. Eighty-two percent of those who say Blacks are treated fairly now say they will vote for Trump. Of those who say we need change, 71% will vote for Biden. Respondents that think Blacks are treated fairly were more likely to say the monuments should be left in place, with 65%, while respondents that think changes need to be made were more likely to say the monuments should move to museums, with 54%.”