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Coal and the big lie

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Hurricane Sandy swept into town this week, reminding Americans that climate change may be the Issue That Cannot Be Talked About, but that doesn’t mean it has gone away. Suddenly the fact that the two presidential candidates have been trying to outdo each other in professing their love for coal comes across as unseemly, if not downright perverse. Surely this would be a good time to acknowledge the impossibility of preventing the catastrophic effects of increasing carbon emissions if we are unwilling to stop burning the things that emit carbon-chief among them, coal.

So a war on coal might be a good idea, although the idea that the Obama Administration has been waging one is nonsense. The reasons for the decline of the coal industry are primarily the flood of cheap natural gas, which is out-competing coal as a fuel for electric generation, and the increasing cost of coal, especially in Appalachia.

Indeed, the Appalachian coal industry has been on the decline for years. The richest and most easily-reached coal has been mined, leaving thin seams that take more effort and expense to extract, pushing the price of Central Appalachian coal well above that of coal from the Powder River Basin further west.

From 1990 to 2006–before the recession, before the Obama presidency, and before the price of natural gas collapsed–Virginia coal mining declined from about 10,000 workers to about 4,500. (Source: http://www.energy.vt.edu/vept/…  The U.S. Energy Information Agency projects that Virginia coal production will continue to decline through the rest of this decade.

But coal executives prefer to lie to workers than admit they can’t compete in the free market, and the politicians who’ve taken hundreds of thousands of dollars from the coal companies would rather parrot their lies than admit they have failed their constituents. Coal companies and their political bedfellows have been exploiting coal miners for two centuries; it’s no surprise to see them using these workers now as pawns in the presidential campaign.

But fingering the real culprits for coalworkers’ distress is the easy part; what’s harder is helping the residents of the coalfields areas find new jobs to replace the ones that are never coming back.

Ironically, in Virginia it has been environmental groups like the Sierra Club and Appalachian Voices that have championed a plan to do just that. For several years they have been urging an end to the approximately $45 million annually in state taxpayer subsidies that currently go to enrich coal companies, and replacing them with incentives to support new jobs in tourism, technology, clean energy and other industries.

This proposal should have gotten traction last year, when a report by the state’s Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC) concluded that the subsidies do not achieve their goal of supporting coal employment, and indeed that  “changes in coal mining activity appear unaffected by the credits.” (http://jlarc.virginia.gov/reports/Rpt425.pdf)

One would have thought that Republicans especially might have jumped at the chance to cut $45 million per year of wasteful spending, or that Governor “Bob-for-Jobs” McDonnell would have gladly seized the opportunity to build a jobs program that did not add a new line-item to the budget.

Following the release of the JLARC study, the legislature and the Governor did act-to extend the coal company subsidies for several more years. The message to the residents of southwest Virginia could not have been any clearer: it’s the coal company executives and their money we care about, not the miners and their families.

The presidential election will be over in a few days. Regardless of who wins, the Virginia coal industry will continue its decline. The only question left is how long the miners will accept being lied to.

 

Photo: Bill Clinton in Chesapeake

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From Obama for America – Virginia: “Earlier today, President Bill Clinton made a stop in Chesapeake for President Obama. POTUS 42’s message: It’s on us.”

The Charts Which Make the Choice Clear: President Obama for Re-Election

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This past week, The Economist endorsed President Obama for re-election. Also recently, Business Insider published a series of charts, which make the case for President Obama’s re-election.

The image here is of just one of them. I cannot reproduce all of them without running afoul of copyright law. So, please take a look at the rest. On numerous variables, the President has brought the economy back from the worst depression since the Great Depression. Here are the economic charts which in any fair electorate would assure a landslide election. As the Business Insider article says:


Mitt Romney keeps saying that the President can’t run on his record.  That’s silly. Obama’s record-especially relative to the economy of the prior administration (whose policies Romney wants to return to) with respect to the economy, has been solid. Before Obama took office, you will recall, the economy was in freefall, obliterated by tax cuts, runaway government spending, massive consumer debts, and regulation-be-damned culture of the prior administration.

As the attached charts show, the moment Obama arrived and implemented the stimulus, the economy began to improve. And it has gotten much, much better in the past four years.

Anyone who cares about the evidence, which along with these charts also includes Mitt Romney’s record as a leveraged buyout predator and job destroyer/offshorer, will vote for President Obama. Read more.  

Mittens and Queen Ann: Not So Charitable After All

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The Wealthy Romney’s are Just “So Charitable!” You’ve no doubt heard Ann Romney toot her own horn about how wonderful she and Mitt are for their “charitable donations,” which it turns out means donating to their own tribe, or church. But it isn’t exactly a donation per se. Like the rest of the 1%, Mittens uses the charitable remainder trust, which primarily serves Mitt and Ann themselves until they die, when what is left of the trust they have been draining, goes to the “charity,” their church. It is not that a church which has one of the steepest tithes in America is hurting for money, you understand. But the taxes Mitt avoids eventually comes out of our hides in either higher taxes for us, or loss of important government services and programs.

The charitable remainder trust is legal, but it is Exhibit A in the games the rich can play while pretending to be such wonderful benefactors. You see, as this Bloomberg article explains, they pretty much rent the church’s tax deductible status, pay no capital gains on gains within the trust, so the trust can grow even more.  

In other words, they get a regular pay check from the trust on which to live. At the same time the trust can grow untaxed, much like tax-deferred IRAs.  (Speaking of which, Mittens has also appears to have abused the rules for IRAs putting far more into one than is allowed. But I digress.)  The “charity” gets the trust after both Romney’s die.

But there here is often little of the trust actually going to the charity. Meanwhile, you and I pick up the tab because Mitt doesn’t pay much in taxes at all. He pays none on the trust payments he gets. There are other similar tax avoidance schemes used by the Romney’s with respect to their charitable donations. And none of this discussion includes the taxes avoided by his offshoring money in the Cayman’s, Bermuda, Switzerland and other countries. I have said it before, some patriot (snark). Now we can say, some charitable donor (snark).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/…

Nate Silver Slams Political “Reporters,” Pundits on “Too Close to Call” Idiocy

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For those of us who are beyond frustrated with the shallowness and superficiality of the corporate media’s political “reporters” (using the word loosely, as I can’t figure out what value added 90% of these people have as actual journalists) and punditocracy, you’ve got to read Nate Silver’s New York Times column this morning (“For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased“), as it’s an instant classic. Bottom line:  Nate calls out these “reporters” for their agenda of relentlessly pushing a (false) narrative that the Obama-Romney race as “too close to call” (or its synonyms — “dead heat,” “neck and neck,” etc.) no matter what the polls show, so that viewers/readers/listeners keep their eyes and ears glued to the TV stations, radio shows, and newspapers at which these “reporters” and pundits work. Here’s an excerpt from Nate’s article, but definitely read the entire thing. It rocks.

…we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

Basically, Nate Silver singlehandedly just humiliated a large chunk of the corporate/Beltway media establishment, the Joe Scarboroughs and Chris Cillizzas of the world, among many others. Not that they’ll care, given how arrogant most of these people are, but still…gotta love it, especially since Silver has more brain cells in his pinky then all a dozen of the political “reporters” have in their entire bodies, put together. LOL

The Report (Disproving Trickle Down Theory) Which the GOP Didn’t Want You to See

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Now, they tell us!  Just a few days before the election (and after many people have already voted), we learn that the non-partisan Congressional Research Service provided a report in September which the GOP didn’t want voters to know about. Indeed they badgered the Congressional Research Service until it pulled the report. But this past week the suppressed report reappeared.

You can find the complete report by going to the first link in the article at the NY Times linked above. The finding was that there is no evidence for the effectiveness of tirckle-down. Tax cuts for the rich do not stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, pretending tht they do has allowed taxes for the 1% to continue to drop over several decades while jobs continue to prove problematic. We have made that case before using other data, but this specifically addressed the proposition and its related variables. I will discuss this report and others more in the coming weeks as the House (if it is still Republican) will try once again  to usher in austerity even while making the rich richer with our money. Meanwhile, I wanted you to have it now.

The Mitt Romney Campaign and the campaigns of all the GOP sound-alikes continue to pitch trickle-down so-called economics.  Elect them, they tell you, and they will cut tax rates for the so-called job-creators, who it turns out aren’t job creators.  You knew that.  I knew that.  But too many Americans still buy the economic porn of the Romney’s. Check out this report.  Share the article with your friends.  Share other points about the stark choice we have.  It is this: Everyone paying their fair share or the 99% paying for the tax cuts to the rich.  If that were the only reason (and there are a hundred other reasons why to vote for the President), the President has earned your vote.  

Virginia News Headlines: Saturday Morning

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Here are a few Virginia (and national) news headlines, political and otherwise, for Saturday, November 3. Polls open in under 72 hours; today is the deadline to vote absentee!

*Romney’s campaign insults voters (“His one consistency has been a contempt for the electorate.”)

*Obama Holds Lead in Florida and Ohio Polls

*Obama opens strategic oil reserve to alleviate Hurricane Sandy shortage

*Power, fuel ease storm woes, but many still waiting (It’s going to take weeks to fully recover from this devastating storm, but hopefully Americans will pitch in and help their fellow Americans at this time! You can donate to the American Red Cross here.)

*Springsteen headlines star-studded concert to benefit Sandy victims (Thank you Broooooooce!!!)

*Report shows October job growth

*Jobs Are Growing, Not Stagnating (As much as Republicans try to make the President “fail,” and as much as they talk down the economy, it keeps on ticking!)

*Is Romney Unraveling? (“How is Romney losing it? Let us count the ways”)

*Obama holds storm meeting, then hits campaign trail

*Va. probe of dumped voter registration forms broadens

*First lady urges effort to reach out

*Battlegrounds Va., Fla. lead in ex-felons who cannot vote (Inexusable.)

*Black vote is key in Va. Senate race (“Observers say Tim Kaine’s history with black voters should benefit him in the race against George Allen.”)

*Democrats take one last swing through Southside (“Democratic Senate candidate Tim Kaine made one last swing through the Dan River Region and brought his long-time friend, U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., to rally the crowd for the Democratic ticket for Kaine, President Barack Obama and 5th District congressional candidate John Douglass.”)

*Warner, Kaine rally support for Douglass in Danville

*James Moran makes bid for 12th term in House

*Actress Nixon, Fluke stump on women’s issues; Allen says women want jobs (That’s not what Allen’s buddy Rick Santorum believes; he thinks women should be at home, not at work.)

*Bill Clinton, John McCain to stump for candidates in Roanoke Valley

*Schmookler for Congress (“Schmookler is the Mr. Smith who wants to go to Washington to straighten it out, or at least provide a truthful voice in a place where that is rare. He’s just as skeptical of career politicians as Goodlatte claimed he was, before he became one.”)

*Rigell assesses Eastern Shore damage

*Allen Visits Valley on Final Campaign Push

*Gov. Bob McDonnell donates $50,000 to Hurricane Sandy relief

*McDonnell, Romney Sons Make Last-Minute Blitz in Northern Virginia

*Fairfax judge declines to issue injunction on poll observers

*Don’t forget to adjust your clocks; daylight saving time ends Sunday

Rick “Man on Dog” Santorum to Campaign for George “Felix Macacawitz” Allen

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A few weeks ago, Rick Santorum (see here for a few of his crazy quotes, such as comparing homosexuality to “man on child, man on dog, or whatever the case may be”) endorsed George Allen, aka “Felix Macacawitz.” Now comes word from the Patriot Voices PAC – founded by Rick and Karen Santorum to “to protect faith, freedom, family and opportunity” (their unique version of all those things, of course) – that “Man on Dog” man is coming to Virginia to campaign for his soul mate. See below and on the “flip” for a schedule, and if you have a chance, perhaps ask Allen if he agrees with Santorum that Mormonism is a “dangerous cult,” that women working outside the home is a bad thing and a result of “radical feminism,” that gay marriage “is an issue just like 9/11,” and that contraception “is…a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be.” I’m sure Allen’s answers will be fascinating! 😉

Monday, November 5:

10:00 AM ET – Rick Santorum will meet with volunteers and supporters at a Meet and Greet at the Abingdon Victory Office in Abingdon, VA.

Location:

Abingdon Victory Office

1060 W Main Street

Abingdon, VA

10:50 AM ET – Rick Santorum will be available for on-site media interviews following the Meet and Greet.

Location:

Abingdon Victory Office

1060 W Main Street

Abingdon, VA

1:10 PM ET – Rick Santorum will meet with volunteers and supporters at a Meet and Greet at the Blacksburg Victory Office in Blacksburg, VA.

Location:

Blacksburg Victory Office

215 Draper Road

Blacksburg, VA

2:05 PM ET – Rick Santorum will be available for on-site media interviews following the Meet and Greet.

Location:

Blacksburg Victory Office

215 Draper Road

Blacksburg, VA

4:15 PM ET – Rick Santorum will meet with volunteers and supporters at a Meet and Greet at the Harrisonburg Victory Office.

Location:

Harrisonburg Victory Office

182 Neff Avenue, Suite 13

Harrisonburg, VA

5:05 PM ET – Rick Santorum will be available for on-site media interviews following the Meet and Greet.

Location:

Harrisonburg Victory Office

182 Neff Avenue, Suite 13

Harrisonburg, VA

Virginia Sheriffs Endorse Anthony Flaccavento

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Join diverse coalition backing Flaccavento for Congress

ABINGDON, Va., Nov. 1, 2012 – Anthony Flaccavento, candidate for Congress from Virginia’s Ninth District, today received endorsements from two Virginia Sheriffs and Bristol firefighters, who joined a growing group of people and organizations in support of Flaccavento for Congress.

The sheriffs endorsed Mr. Flaccavento’s candidacy after learning of his proposal to pay deputies and other first responders a fair wage.

“Anthony Flaccavento stands with working men and women,” said Washington County Sheriff Fred Newman. “I know he’ll support me and my deputies in Congress, so we support him. Congressman Griffith says he doesn’t care about low pay for deputies, and that states should take care of it. I wish he had felt that way when he ran the General Assembly. I strongly endorse Anthony Flaccavento for Congress.”

Russell County Sheriff Steve Dye joined Newman in endorsing Flaccavento, as did the International Association of Firefighters local in Bristol.

“I’m honored to accept the endorsements of men and women who put themselves in harm’s way to protect us every day,” said Mr. Flaccavento. “I have always stood with the people who make America great: coal miners, farmers, loggers, steel workers, firefighters, sheriff’s deputies… These are the working men and women we need to support in order to continue to build strong local economies from the bottom up in southwest Virginia.”

Mr. Flaccavento has received endorsements from dozens of elected officials from all across southwest Virginia and at all levels of government, including Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). His history of support for middle-class and working-class families has earned him endorsements from 10 labor organizations, including the United Mine Workers of America, the Communications Workers of America and the United Steelworkers. Flaccavento also recently earned an endorsement from the Alliance for Retired Americans, which cited his “leadership on issues such as preserving and protecting Social Security and Medicare.”

Mr. Flaccavento was also recently endorsed by the Roanoke Times, which wrote, “If coal is to be the defining issue of this campaign, Anthony Flaccavento is the clear choice. Coal companies have no greater friend on Capitol Hill than first-term incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith. Coal miners and their families could have no greater friend than challenger Flaccavento … Flaccavento demonstrates a thoughtful command of the issues that is unusual in a first-time candidate. On issue after issue, from health care reform to the deficit to taxes, he frames solutions in terms of what would most benefit the people of his district. That is a view that has been missing for the last two years under the tea partyer from Salem.”

“We’ve built a broad coalition, a winning coalition,” said Mr. Flaccavento. “We continue to gain momentum. But even more important than these groups and elected officials are the people who talk to me on the campaign trail. They share my commitment to creating strong local economies. This campaign has always been about building from the bottom up, and that’s how we’re going to win on Tuesday – people power.”

The full list of endorsements Mr. Flaccavento has received is available at bit.ly/endorseAF.

Anthony Flaccavento is a candidate for Congress from Virginia’s Ninth District. He is a family farmer and small business owner from Abingdon, in the heart of the district. Anthony has spent the last three decades working to promote economic development and sustainable farming practices in southwest Virginia. Please visit www.afor9.com for more information.

Posturing, Polls, and the October Surprise

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121102ElectoralMapBarring any unforeseen event, there aren’t enough undecideds to sway these uncertain elections. Persuasion is over now. The embers are being fanned with advertising dollars, but the electorate is now fairly immune to the heat from either side. The negative ads won’t do the heavy work of GOTV.  

The tea leaves from the polls give a very murky outlook. Republicans told us weeks ago that the polls are unreliable and biased. They were certainly not giving the news that they wanted to hear. For a while they were apoplectic; then curled up in the fetal position. When the polls swung their way, they suddenly became prophetic. But the truth is we (except maybe Nate Silver) won’t know what they mean until midnight Tuesday.

The benefit of the ad deluge right now is nearly zero compared to ads run in June or July. Dr. Quentin Kidd (Christopher Newport University) suggests that was factored into the strategy of the Obama campaign. The campaign had ads up at that point in all the swing states because they wanted to set the stage early. Everyone knew that by fall the ads would be ubiquitous to the point of being indistinguishable. This strategy may prove the difference in this race.

In a conversation with Cathy Lewis on WHRV last week, Kidd concurred with the view that we have reached the point of political ad saturation. But, he said, we are in an arms race from which no campaign can pull back without demonstrating some sort of weakness; suggesting maybe the financial support has gone (see George Allen’s contribution to himself). And just today a very expensive 20 page, glossy, Obama mailer arrived from OFA.

The differences between the polls this year are generally within the margins of error. What makes those differences? Republicans and their talk radio rationalists point to a liberal media or polling bias, but there are more practical matters that influence the results.

Polls are supposed to harvest essentially random input. But part of that is a function of who picks up the phone and that is constantly changing. It is influenced by the time of day the calls are made and who would be home at those times to answer (or choose not to answer). Another change to the process of polling is the transition from land lines to cell phones. There are regulations affecting the choice of user. Regulations make calling land lines much easier: automated machines can make these calls; not so with cell phones. That means a human must dial the area code and number, increasing costs significantly.

Let’s think about that. The number of people using cell phones is growing and that number skews younger than the land line users. In fact there may be a demographic segment that is simply not included in the polls. And the internet is an imperfect alternative for many reasons.

Dr. Kidd says that phones will continue to be used for the foreseeable future but that there will be a shift to cell phones over time. Currently he uses a 75/25 split land line to cell phone and 10 to 12 percent of the cell phone users are cell phone only users. That, according to Kidd, characterizes is the state of the art for now. Cell phone users are younger, more mobile; meaning a land line sample is older and less mobile.

All this makes the poll results hazier. So interpreting them is a fine art and requires a more thorough analysis of the run-up to the election. The ad saturation effect here at the end of the campaign is likely good for democracy. It makes it less likely that voters will use these 30 to 60 second sound bites as the basis for a decision on which way to vote. But it is somewhat disturbing that so many in the cell phone sample set are using the Daily Show and the Colbert Report as a primary source of information; or is it?

“There is some research on the effects of the(se) shows, the Daily Show in particular, on political knowledge and demonstrates that political knowledge is improved by watching those shows. So, that’s a commentary on our news programs; if you can watch a comedy program and your political knowledge is higher.

“But the question is: Why? I think what you just pointed out: Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert take a very critical look at everything. And I think what comes out the other end of that critical look is a better sense of what is reality. And I think that is why some people find them, in some ways, more beneficial to understanding what is really going on.” – Dr. Quentin Kidd, Department Chair, Christopher Newport University

Interpret that as you may. The potentially underreported demographic is getting its news from Stewart and Colbert.

Finally, the October surprise the bloviating talk show hosts predicted would be a cynical Obama maneuver to allow him to “look Presidential” instead became something more of what they might interpret providential. Sandy, very likely powered by the immoral environmental stewardship Republicans have come to call “free market forces,” set the stage for Obama’s very competent Presidential performance.

So the election is really already all over except the GOTV. There is nothing more important than this GOTV effort for the President and for Tim Kaine in Virginia; down to the last identified strong D.

But there is the undercurrent of another campaign being waged: the continued campaign to delegitimatize President Obama. This one works both ways for Republicans. Win or lose, it accelerates a retrenchment to the past or it puts the brakes on progress. That could mean a pyrrhic victory for our President.

The Berra adage must be adapted for Obama’s next 4 years: It isn’t over even when it’s over.